#JGB10YTops3%
About JGB10YTops3%
Japan's 10-year JGB yield touched 3% on Sep 1, briefly hitting some 3.01%, the highest since Sep 1996; the 30-year rose past 4.18%, near record highs. This isn't just a Japan story: US yields rebounded, and UK and German long bonds sit at multi-year highs as markets reprice inflation, deficits and supply. Rising Japanese rates hit yen carry trades, overseas allocation and global risk appetite. If BOJ hike bets build, the dollar, Treasuries, gold, BTC and stocks all feel the cross-market flows.
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JUST IN: Japan’s 30-year yield just ripped above 4.18%, the highest level in history.
$JTO
Japan's 10-year yield hit 3% for the first time since 1996 — a quiet event with loud implications for crypto. Japan has long anchored the world's cheap capital; as JGB yields climb and the yen sits near four-decade lows, the carry trade that quietly funds global risk gets costlier to hold. We saw a preview of that unwind in 2024. Crypto watches the Fed and misses Tokyo, but the marginal cost of global capital is being repriced here.
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🚨🇯🇵 JAPAN'S 10-YEAR JUST HIT 3%. FIRST TIME SINCE 1996.
It's a bigger problem than you can imagine.
For 30 years the most important trade on earth worked like this:
Borrow yen in Tokyo at zero (or even negative) % . Sell the yen, buy dollars. Put the dollars into anything that pays yield: US Treasuries at 2-3%, indexes, stocks, emerging-market debt, real estate.
Keep the difference. Repay the loan later in a currency that only ever gets cheaper.
Free money, as long as two things stay true: Japan pays you nothing to stay, and the yen doesn't rise.
The size of this scheme became too massive.
Deutsche Bank once sized the full structure: Japan's entire borrow-short, lend-abroad balance sheet is at $20 TRILLION and called it the biggest carry trade in history.
Japan is the world's largest creditor: roughly $3.5 trillion of net foreign assets, over $1 trillion of it in US Treasuries, the biggest foreign lender to America.
Its pension whale GPIF alone runs $2 trillion, about half of it parked abroad.
Today, crossing 3% killed both legs of the trade at once.
> The funding leg: borrowing yen is no longer free because the BoJ is will hike rates to 1.25%.
> The asset leg: Japanese funds can now earn 3% at home, in its own currency with no FX risk, while Treasury after paying to hedge the dollar, hands it less than that.
It already started unwinding this summer: Treasuries out-yielded the carry trade for only the second time on record.
For perspective, in August 2024: ONE BoJ hike to just 0.25% and the Nikkei lost 12% in a day, margin calls hit every market on earth within 48 hours.
Imagine how big the leverage on those trades is.
If you started trading 30 years ago, you had never seen Japan pay 3%. As of this morning, you have.
The global crisis is already here.
MARKETS ON EDGE AS OIL AND YIELDS SURGE
U.S. stock futures were flat as investors weighed Fed rate-hike risks, U.S.-Iran tensions and key jobs data.
Japan’s 10-year bond yield topped 3% for the first time since 1996, adding pressure to global markets.
Meanwhile, Brent rose above $91 as threats of further U.S. strikes on Iran fueled concerns over Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions.
Investors now await U.S. labor and manufacturing data.
Good morning.
With oil prices higher, government bond yields are on the move again around the world.
One of the most notable moves is in the UK—what I have characterized here and elsewhere as one of the “high beta” advanced economies—where the 10-year has traded up to a level not seen in almost 20 years (Bloomberg data below), while the 30-year yield is at a level not seen in almost 30 years.
#economy #markets #bonds #yields #oil
🚨 WARNING: JAPAN JUST HIT A BREAKING POINT
🇯🇵 JAPAN'S 30-YEAR BOND YIELD JUST SURGED ABOVE 4.18% - THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN HISTORY!
JAPANESE YIELDS HAVE NEVER BEEN THIS HIGH BEFORE.
JAPAN HOLDS TRILLIONS IN GLOBAL ASSETS - EVEN A SMALL CAPITAL SHIFT COULD HIT MARKETS HARD!
THIS IS A MAJOR WARNING SIGN FOR JAPAN'S BOND MARKET - AND GLOBAL MARKETS.
IF THIS CONTINUES, THE SHOCKWAVES COULD SPREAD FAR BEYOND JAPAN!👀
Commerzbank informuje, że globalna wyprzedaż obligacji przyspiesza, ceny ropy wracają do niedawnych szczytów, dolar amerykański zyskuje
06:16 AM EDT, 09/01/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Globalna wyprzedaż obligacji nasiliła się, a rentowność 10-letnich obligacji skarbowych wzrosła do 4,78% na azjatyckim rynku, podczas gdy rentowność 10-letnich japońskich obligacji rządowych wzrosła do 30-letniego maksimum na poziomie 3,0%, według notatki Commerzbank.
Sekretarz Skarbu USA Scott Bessent powiedział, że plan redukcji zadłużenia może być jeszcze kilka miesięcy od realizacji i że on oraz przewodniczący Rezerwy Federalnej Kevin Warsh są "na t
🚨 SOMETHING TERRIBLE IS HAPPENING IN JAPAN RIGHT NOW!!
Every government bond yield just hit its highest level in history.
Japan is sitting on ¥15.3 TRILLION in bond losses.
And the BOJ just hit the panic button.
They're dumping $6 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries to cover the damage.
If you hold any assets right now, you MUST read this:
Japan has been one of the most important sources of global liquidity for decades.
For years, interest rates stayed near zero.
That made the yen one of the world's cheapest funding currencies.
Investors borrowed trillions of yen.
Then poured that money into stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto, and markets around the world.
But that trade is now coming under pressure.
Japanese bonds are surging.
Yields are moving higher.
And money is starting to have a reason to return home.
This is where things get dangerous.
Because when Japanese capital comes back...
Someone else has to buy what Japan is selling.
→ More bonds hit the market
→ Yields move higher
→ Liquidity dries up
And financial conditions tighten everywhere.
The U.S. Treasury has already doubled its Treasury buybacks in an attempt to stop the bleeding.
A sign that even the world's largest bond market is starting to show cracks.
That's how market stress spreads.
Quietly at first.
Then all at once.
AND THIS IS NOT GOOD...
Most people won't understand what's happening until markets are already collapsing.
Japan's bond market is sending a warning.
And the rest of the world will be next.
I've spent 10+ years studying these markets.
And I've seen the warning signs before most people knew what was coming.
If you want to stay ahead of the 2026 cycle, follow and turn notifications on.
I've warned you before.
And I'll warn you again soon.
Follow and turn on notifications.
Many people will wish they had paid attention sooner.