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⚠️ $MU — Don’t Rush to Bottom-Fish Just Yet Micron may be entering the early stages of a cyclical downturn after a major run. In this type of setup, rebounds can sometimes offer better opportunities to reduce exposure or look for bearish setups rather than blindly trying to catch the bottom. The recent rally in $MU was fueled by rising memory prices, strong HBM demand, and AI optimism. But when earnings and margins reach extreme levels, the bigger question becomes: how much future growth is already priced in? That’s the challenge with cyclical stocks. Buying when earnings look exceptional can be risky because markets often anticipate the next slowdown before fundamentals actually weaken. The memory cycle remains heavily driven by supply and demand. Earlier gains were supported by production cuts and tight supply, but Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are now investing aggressively in additional capacity and HBM production. As that supply comes online, the market could eventually shift its focus from the current shortage narrative toward the risk of future oversupply. 📊 Price action is another warning sign. If selling volume continues expanding while rebounds occur on weaker volume, that could point toward distribution rather than accumulation. After a stock has already tripled, profit-taking can become significant if bullish sentiment starts to fade. Technically, the structure is also weakening: 🔻 Short-term moving averages are turning lower 🔻 Lower highs are developing 🔻 The chart is beginning to resemble a descending channel ⚠️ The $860 consolidation could become a continuation pattern if support breaks From a trading perspective, I wouldn’t chase a short after a sharp sell-off. Instead, a rebound toward $880–$900 could provide a more attractive risk/reward setup, with $920 as a potential invalidation level. 🎯 Key downside levels: • $780 • $700–$720 if $780 breaks For now, patience may offer a better setup than trying to catch a falling knife. 👀 #CPIInLineFedWatch #AIInfraEarningsWatch