Hello, I am Dr. Bi. Tonight at 20:30, the US will release the July CPI inflation data. This is the most critical forward-looking data before the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, directly determining the pace and magnitude of the rate cut in September. It will also drive major volatility tonight in Bitcoin, US stocks, and gold. Today, I will provide a complete scenario analysis and operational plan. Please follow it accordingly, strictly set stop losses, and avoid blindly betting on the data direction. 1. Key data highlights and current market pricing Among the four data points released this time, the core CPI year-over-year is the Fed's most focused indicator, with the highest weight and is the core variable affecting the market. The current market consensus expects: overall CPI year-over-year at 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core CPI year-over-year at 2.5% (previous 2.6%); overall CPI month-over-month at 0.1% (previous -0.4%), core CPI month-over-month at 0.2% (previous 0%). The market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September. The core significance of this data is to verify whether "inflation decline is sustainable," which will influence whether the September cut is 25bp or 50bp, as well as the total number of cuts in Q4. If inflation rises unexpectedly, rate cut expectations will cool significantly, and a pause in September rate cuts cannot be ruled out. If inflation accelerates its decline, the market will immediately price in a 50bp cut, and risk assets will collectively see a rebound window. Regarding Bitcoin, BTC is currently in a daily downtrend channel, with 4-hour bears dominating and the 1-hour chart only showing oversold recovery. Tonight's CPI data will directly determine this round of decline.