#LongYields5%NewNormal
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Long-end Treasury yields held after the Fed's Sept 16 25bps hike. The 10-year dipped to around 4.95% then returned to near 5%, the 2-year to around 4.73%, the 30-year above 5%. Walsh attributed the long-end to stronger growth, AI-driven capex, and geopolitics, but did not address fiscal deficits. If the 2-year stabilizes while the 10-year and 30-year hold above 5%, long-end pricing may reflect structural capital demand, inflation risk, and term premium, lifting the floor for high-beta assets.
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Manajemen Aset JPMorgan: Obligasi AS turun ke "titik rasa sakit terbesar", saatnya membeli obligasi pemerintah jangka panjang
Bob Michele, Chief Investment Officer dari Morgan Stanley Asset Management, menyatakan bahwa timnya telah mulai membeli obligasi pemerintah jangka panjang dari Amerika Serikat, Jepang, dan Australia, karena mereka menganggap harga saat ini "sangat murah", dan pasar obligasi telah mencapai titik kritis "rasa sakit yang ekstrem".
Pada hari Rabu, Michele dalam wawancara dengan Bloomberg TV mengatakan bahwa berbagai faktor positif sedang berkumpul: mulai dari kenaikan suku bunga Bank Sentral Eropa m
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 The first Fed hike since 2023 matters. But the bigger signal may be what comes next 👀
The Fed raised rates 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, ending five straight holds. More importantly, its September projections show the median policy rate at 4.1% for end-2026, with most officials clustered above today's midpoint. Inflation is still projected at 3.7% this year.
What caught my attention is how quickly the market narrative has flipped. Not long ago, investors were debating when easing might return. Now the question is how long this renewed tightening phase lasts.
That matters when the 10-year yield is already above 5%. Higher rates don't just pressure stocks. They raise the hurdle rate for AI spending, corporate borrowing, housing and leveraged crypto positions.
The Fed and White House may debate where rates should go. Markets have to price where they actually go.
If inflation stays sticky, the bigger risk may not be this 25bps hike. It may be investors realizing that expensive money is sticking around.
-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%
Latest data
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the 5% threshold, reaching a recent high. The risk-free yield has risen, putting pressure on BTC simultaneously, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
币圈阿飞-OKB
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
Data terbaru
Imbal hasil Treasury AS 10 tahun telah melewati angka 5%, mencapai rekor tertinggi dalam beberapa tahun. Imbal hasil bebas risiko meningkat, BTC berada di bawah tekanan pada saat yang sama, dan dana ETF spot terus mengalir keluar.
Konsensus pasar
Sisi bearish percaya bahwa seiring imbal hasil Treasury AS menjadi lebih menarik, dana akan menarik dana dari aset berisiko seperti kripto; yang lain berpendapat masalah utamanya adalah penerbitan obligasi fiskal yang berlebihan telah mendorong suku bunga naik, dan guncangan jangka pendek mungkin tidak akan tetap tinggi dalam waktu lama.
Analisis logika dasar
US Treasuries menjadi jangkar harga aset global, imbal hasil menembus 5%, dan biaya peluang untuk memegang BTC meningkat. Dana akan memprioritaskan kepastian Treasuries, selera risiko menurun, dan sektor kripto rentan terhadap tekanan. Ke depan, fokus akan diberikan pada pernyataan rapat FOMC.
Pandangan pribadi (hanya pandangan pribadi, bukan saran investasi) #本周FOMC揭晓 kenaikan suku bunga bisa terjadi?
$BTC $ZEC $XAU
92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike.
The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets.
For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
$BTC is hovering around the $76,000 level.
US stock futures are up ahead of today's FOMC meeting, while oil is down.
Pre-market stock trading insights:
▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.54%
▫️S&P futures is up 0.34%#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
the more critical time period tonight.
The market's core focus right now is still the FOMC; the expectation of a 25bp rate hike is already very high, close to 90%, so the simple fact of a "rate hike" has been largely priced in. What will truly determine the future direction of $BTC and $ETH is how hawkish Powell will be and whether further rate hikes will continue.
BTC is currently still weak, and ETH jointly suppr#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
TODAY: The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points today, a move that would mark its first increase since 2023.
$BTC
In the past decade, Bitcoin told its story through the "halving cycle."\n\nIn the next decade, Bitcoin will tell its story through the "fiat credit collapse."\n\nAnd today,\n\nThe US 10-year Treasury yield has broken 5%, the last time was in 2007.\n\nThe Japanese 10-year government bond yield has broken 3%, the last time was in 1996.\n\nThe US and Japanese bond markets are handing the script directly to $BTC.\n\nThe question is: can you endure the darkest moment before dawn?
🚨 THE MARKET IS HUNTING LEVERAGE AGAIN
Yesterday’s sell-off wiped out hundreds of millions in crypto longs.
BTC fell toward the $75K area, while ETH dropped toward $2,400.
And now comes the bigger test:
With the U.S. 10Y yield recently moving above 5%, risk assets are facing a much tougher macro environment.
❌ No FOMO
❌ No revenge trades
❌ No oversized leverage
✅ Wait for BTC confirmation
✅ Keep dry powder
✅ Let the market show its hand first
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #Trading #OKX
#DailyOrbit