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Contract fund flows reveal a key signal: short-term positions are being taken over, but swing funds have not yet returned.
🔻$BTC: Short-term inflow, medium-term bearish. Net inflow peaks at $36.0436 million from 5 minutes to 1 hour, but net outflow is $629 million over 24 hours and $8.293 billion over 30 days. Short-term buying is attempting a counterattack, but pressure from large capital withdrawals remains.
$ETH: Rebound has funds, but the trend remains under pressure. Net inflow from 5 to 30 minutes, but turns to a net outflow of $70.2395 million at 1 hour, $856 million net outflow over 24 hours, and $8.737 billion net outflow over 30 days.
$SOL: In four words, continuous bleeding. $95.5074 million net outflow over 24 hours, $2.085 billion net outflow over 30 days. Short-term funds fluctuate, but medium to long-term outflows are obvious.
zec: Relatively strong short-term. Net inflow of $10.0513 million in the last hour, $40.115 million over 24 hours, and $193 million over the past week. However, 15-day and 30-day periods still show net outflows.
After rebounding near 80,650 in the early morning, the price was once again suppressed by bears, consecutively closing with bearish candles. The current price of 79,980 is right at the edge of the lower Bollinger Band, even slightly breaking below it. Yesterday's sharp drop was halted, but overall it remains in a weak consolidation recovery.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SpaceX融资400亿美元，马斯克警告AI云断贷 Today we're focusing on ETH because its signals are the most contradictory and most easily swayed by emotions.
First, the bearish evidence: In October, the US spot ETH ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of about $1.18 billion, with institutional buying visibly weak. The Glamsterdam upgrade, originally scheduled to launch on the testnet today, was postponed due to concerns about gas interactions between EIP-8037 and existing contracts.
Now, the bullish evidence: ETH staking hit a record high of 43.8 million tokens, accounting for 35.9% of total supply, with a net inflow of 1.99 million tokens in Q3, marking six consecutive quarters of growth. A single-day withdrawal of 170,000 ETH from exchanges is the largest net outflow in four months. The circulating supply is visibly shrinking, but the price is being held down near 2,335 by ETF sell orders.
BTC is under pressure today in the 79,500-80,025 range, with the US-Iran conflict and Federal Reserve expectations as macro triggers. If BTC doesn't move, ETH is unlikely to strengthen independently. SOL's ETF saw an outflow of 68 million in October; even with on-chain RWA booming, it doesn't translate to the coin price. ZEC is a different story—the largest short position is floating a loss of 18.04 million but still adding margin; 1,112 is its liquidation price. ZEC's volatility is not driven by fundamentals but by leveraged positions stepping on each other.
My view: ETH's 2,300-2,330 range is a psychological bottom line; holding it on the daily close means a "wrongful kill," breaking below it signals a "trend." $BTC $ZEC $ETH On Monday Asian early trading, $ETH touched around 2300 again: current price about 2306, 24h approximately −2.5%, high/low about 2371/2300, weekend rebound basically retraced. Fear and greed index around 50. ETF net inflow on Friday about 4.4 million, previously on 10/22 about outflow of 110 million (Farside), no new prints over the weekend. Staking is firmer—entry queue about 1.27 million ETH (about 22.5 days), exit only about 3500 tokens, total network staking about 44.1 million, approximately 36%. The main events this week are the 10/27–28 rate decision and the 29th PCE; do you think 2283–2300 is a bottoming accumulation zone or a false support before the rate decision? Feedback welcome.
$ETH
Just personal observation, not investment advice. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH Oil prices and gold "diverge"? 🤔
Recently, the market has seen a rare divergence: $CL continues to strengthen, Brent crude oil has risen above $115, hitting a more than five-month high 📈; meanwhile, $XAU has fallen instead of rising, dropping to a three-month low 📉. The traditional "safe-haven gold buying" seems to be temporarily failing.
The key variable remains the Federal Reserve 🏦. Rising oil prices have heightened inflation concerns, and the market worries that monetary policy will be hard to ease, even betting again on rate hikes. Rising interest rate expectations and a stronger dollar are putting pressure on the non-yielding asset gold. Although geopolitical risks exist, safe-haven demand may not be enough to offset the pressure from interest rates and the dollar.
The Fed's rate decision is coming next week ⚠️. If December rate hike expectations continue to rise, gold and U.S. stocks may face another round of repricing. Strong oil and weak gold essentially mean the market is trading "inflation—interest rates" rather than pure safe-haven demand. 📊#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The high growth of traditional stock/crypto trading is hard to sustain; however, whether the overall trading business can continue depends on whether new engines like prediction markets, options, derivatives, and internationalization can compensate for the decline in crypto, representing a "structural differentiation, high volatility, not linear perpetual growth".
Transaction-based revenue rose 44% year-over-year to $776 million, but the internal structure has completely reversed:
- ✅ Event contracts (prediction markets): $156 million, over 10 times year-over-year, already surpassing crypto trading revenue, currently the strongest growth driver;
- ✅ Options: $342 million, +29%; stock trading: $129 million, +95%;
- ❌ Crypto trading: $100 million, down 38% year-over-year, continuing to drag down.The long-short ratio has tragically dropped to 8%, yet the whales are secretly transferring coins to dump the market! Is the $HYPE rebound a "death spell"?
Direction: Short (short on the rebound)
Entry range: 77.50–78.50
Take profit target: 74.50–73.00
Highlights/Basis:
Whales have aggressively deposited 37.83 million to Coinbase, signaling a prelude to dumping. Flow Score is -98, with a 436 million loss over 15 days; the bulls simply can't hold. At this time, the long-short ratio has tragically dropped to 8%, shorts are crowded; don't blindly chase shorts, wait for the rebound to the resistance zone above 77.5 for a precise strike. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC: Go long!
Strategy:
Wait for the price to pull back to 80500–80700 (EMA5/10/20 dense support zone) and stabilize before entering long. The target is first set at 81500–82000, a dense short liquidation zone, with a stop loss below 79800.
Core basis:
1. Extreme short crowding: short positions total 2.45 billion U, 3.5 times the 700 million U held by longs; the average short price is 76367, current price 80900 is deeply trapped with unrealized losses exceeding 138 million U. Once it breaks upward, it is likely to trigger a short squeeze.
2. Technical deep V pattern: on the 1-hour chart, after a wick down to 79168 for shakeout, price quickly recovered and stands above EMA5/10/20, preliminarily establishing a short-term bullish structure.
3. Favorable risk-reward ratio: 79800 below is a strong defensive bottom, above is a dense short stop-loss area, providing ample space for a short squeeze, with a superior risk-reward ratio.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Damn, after looking at the revenue data from 15 launchpads, it's simply heartbreaking!
In the past month, 10 of them have dropped more than 75%! This business has basically turned from a money printer into a money shredder.
Comparing the average daily revenue in September to the most recent 7 days, StonkFun plummeted 85%, $PONS plummeted 92%, BONK.fun plummeted 85%, o1 Launchpad plummeted 93%, and Ansem is almost down to zero.
Only $PUMP bucked the trend with a 34% increase, earning over $10.33 million in revenue in the last 7 days. The market has already started to seek safety in advance, with BTC and ETH falling simultaneously, and the hourly chart showing consecutive large bearish candles. Everyone is waiting for the FOMC decision; although the market expects no rate hike, the biggest fear is a hawkish speech from Powell.
Interest rate expectations are the core factor affecting crypto prices. Pausing rate hikes does not mean an immediate rate cut; as long as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for longer, the crypto market will struggle to see a strong rebound. The current market weakness is obvious, with ETH showing greater downside elasticity.
Volatility in news this week will increase, so leverage in contracts must be strictly controlled. Do not try to bottom-pick; patiently wait for the meeting outcome, observe the direction chosen by capital, and then consider entering the market.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 No matter how high the TVL is, how much does it really relate to your token?
Public blockchains boast about their ecosystems and compete on TVL every day, yet their token prices crash hard. Why? Because there is an insurmountable wall between the prosperity on-chain and the pockets of token holders.
$NEAR shines under the halo of AI and chain abstraction, but the numbers reveal the truth: in the past 30 days, about $13 million worth of NEAR was newly issued, while the buyback scale was only about $1.9 million, meaning inflation is more than six times the buyback. Moreover, the bought-back tokens are just placed into a "permanent capital instrument" and not burned; their future fate is unknown, so the so-called "deflationary closed loop" is currently just an empty promise.
$OP once designed income buybacks, but with the exit of core chains like Base, monthly buybacks plummeted by 87%, and the foundation publicly stated it will no longer commit to buybacks after 12 months. Buying it essentially means paying for the grand narrative of L2 rather than real cash flow.
$SKY, on the other hand, is a giant that lives off real assets. Although the burn ratio is restrained (strictly limited to 5% of monthly net surplus for permanent burns), the mechanism is completely transparent: the second burn directly destroyed 7.37 million tokens with real money. Its foundation is solid interest spread cash flow, not an ecosystem PPT hanging in the air.
Conclusion:
If a chain’s transactions are active but profits are not used to buy back and burn tokens, what you’re buying is just a governance certificate lacking cash flow support. No matter how high the TVL is, it’s just self-indulgence by the project team.All three markets moved together this weekend, but in different directions.
First, let's clarify the news: Israel's election is on October 27, the US midterm elections on November 3, and foreign media have revealed that the US and Israel have put a new round of plans to strike Iran on the table, targeting nuclear facilities, energy facilities, and missile stockpiles. Trump hasn't signed off yet; the White House says no action before the election, but the market isn't waiting for the signature.
Oil reacted first. On Friday, Brent closed at $116.72 per barrel, up 3.14%, WTI closed at $103.27, up 3.80%. Over the weekend, WTI contracts traded around $103.67, Brent at $111.73, with a combined 24-hour volume of $182 million—someone really held positions over the weekend.
Gold, on the other hand, weakened, at $3979.6 per ounce, down 0.48% from Friday's $3998.9, back below $4000. The safe-haven asset not rising is a signal more worth watching than oil prices.
BTC is the most direct: Hyperliquid native perpetual fell to $79,333, down 2.55% from Friday's $81,407, with the weekend range between $79,184 and $81,502, now hovering near the lower bound. Losing $80,000 means the next support around $78,000 is basically a vacuum.
My judgment: This isn't just about the crypto world itself; oil prices and the election calendar are setting the pricing. If oil doesn't come down, inflation expectations won't be suppressed, rate cuts will be delayed, and risk assets will take the hit first. Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term; watch two things: whether Trump approves the plan, and whether WTI holds $100. Without resolution, any rebound can only be considered a correction.The most unusual thing over the weekend wasn't BTC falling below 80,000, but gold dropping along with it.
There should be trouble in the Middle East, and money should logically flow into gold. Instead, gold is at $3,979.6 per ounce, down 0.48% from Friday, failing to hold the 4,000 mark. The real gain was in oil, with Brent at 116.72 and WTI at 103.27, rising more than 3 points in one day.
So the market is not trading on risk aversion, but on inflation. With oil prices high, interest rate cuts will be delayed, and high-valuation assets are all taking a hit. BTC dropped 2.55% to 79,333, at the tail end of this chain. Watch the 100 mark on WTI.#HOODQ3TradingGrowth
$HOOD heads into Q3 earnings with record trading volumes
Robinhood reports Q3 tomorrow, and the monthly data already shows a record trading quarter.
Options come to about 851M contracts quarter-to-date, and that only counts September through the 24th. July had 324 million contracts, up 66% year-over-year, and August had 292.5M. September added approximately 234 million through the 24th. The previous high was Q2's record 774 million. $BTC family, did you see that sharp 15-minute plunge of BTC early this morning? It dropped straight down to 79,500. The trigger was Trump's statement "fastest strike on Iran again by Sunday," pushing oil prices up along with inflation expectations, and risk assets were collectively suppressed. And it’s not over yet; the Fed's rate decision on October 28 is the day after tomorrow, and the cooling of rate cut expectations is itself a looming threat.
BTC right now isn’t about watching price rises or falls, it’s about seeing who breaks first. Around 79,673 is the lowest closing area since September 18, and the 80,000 round number has been pierced repeatedly, showing it’s not a solid bottom but the blade of a meat grinder. Wintermute’s mid-term framework is very clear: 75,000 is the key support, 87,000 is the threshold bulls must take. Between these two points, any heavy position is a gamble with your life.
$ETH ETH is stuck around 2,335-2,376 today. The ETF cumulative outflow in October of 1.18 billion is real selling pressure, but the staking amount hit a record 43.8 million tokens, accounting for 35.9% of supply. ETFs that can sell are selling, staked tokens that can’t sell are locked up; this is divergence, not a one-sided move.
$SOL SOL is hovering near 106. The October ETF cumulative net outflow is 68 million, but the on-chain RWA base jumped from 700 million to 4.3 billion, unchanged. The problem is price doesn’t recognize fundamentals, only marginal buying. ETFs are withdrawing, so who will take over?
ZEC is actually the liveliest, with price holding up at 1,211.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ There is a chance of a slight beat on expectations, but the difficulty is clearly greater than in previous quarters; market expectations are already very high, while LTA long-term contract price locks and the strengthening of the Korean won are the biggest drags. Do not have high hopes for a "significant beat." Most likely, the results will be strong, but an "outperformance" is a cautious low-probability event; the most likely scenario is that the results will be close to consensus, and the final outcome depends on management's guidance for Q4 and next year's HBM.As Middle East supply risks heat up, it's easy for everyone to interpret all crude oil prices as moving in the same direction. But futures rise, oil-producing countries adjust their quotes, and refinery procurement costs change—there are several layers of accounting in between.
A detail worth noting in Saudi Arabia's November quote released earlier: Arab Light crude oil for Asia is priced at a discount relative to the regional benchmark. Note, this is a discount relative to the benchmark and cannot be directly translated as "oil is cheaper for Asian buyers." If the benchmark itself rises, combined with changes in freight, insurance, and so on, the final landed cost may still increase.
This is also why I am increasingly impatient with the saying "when oil prices rise, all energy-related assets benefit." The same barrel of oil involves completely different ledgers for producers, transporters, refineries, and end consumers.
To judge how long this strong momentum can last, besides geopolitical news, we also need to see if spot prices in different regions have caught up and whether refineries are willing to continue purchasing at this cost.
Futures can trade on worries first, but real buyers ultimately have to calculate profits. I acknowledge there are reasons for price increases; however, I cannot treat every piece of tense news as a basis for continued buying. Especially when headlines become increasingly alarming, it's even more important to carefully calculate those actual costs.
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Looking at BTC spot ETFs, I want to first separate a concept that is often confused: a decrease in fund size and net capital outflow cannot be equated directly.
If the BTC price held by the fund drops, even without investors redeeming, the asset size measured in USD will shrink. Conversely, when BTC rises, it can push the fund size up, even if the new capital inflow is not as much as imagined. Attributing all asset size changes to institutional buying and selling can easily lead to a conclusion that sounds grand but is fundamentally shaky.
Recently, capital inflows and outflows have been volatile, and sentiment is already sensitive. Shouting retreat when seeing a size decline, and shouting to buy when seeing a size rebound, will only make oneself toss back and forth with the numbers.
I prefer to look at subscriptions and redemptions, fund coin holdings changes, and coin price together. At least distinguish whether money has actually left or the original assets have just become cheaper.
To judge whether the buying can stabilize, we must return to this question: when prices fall, is new capital continuing to come in; when prices rebound, is this capital quickly exiting.
I still have expectations for BTC, but expectations cannot be supported by statistical definitions alone. If you can't even distinguish between "losing market value" and "capital withdrawal," no matter how passionately you write the subsequent bullish or bearish analysis, you might have gotten it wrong from the very first step.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ This week's market situation worries me most about one scenario: everyone stays up late waiting for the Federal Reserve, and when the result finally comes out, they feel relieved, but the next day's data drags the market back down.
According to the published schedule, after the October rate meeting concludes, the U.S. will also release GDP and personal income and expenditure data, including the PCE inflation indicator. The rate decision comes first, and the data that influences the next policy judgment arrives afterward. This means the market's first-round reaction to the statement will likely face a second round of testing.
If the decision eases the market, but the subsequent inflation data is strong, the risk assets that just rose may come under pressure again. Conversely, if the press conference is cautious and the following data cools down, it may revise the initial pessimistic judgment.
Therefore, I won't rush to draw conclusions from the first big bullish candle after the rate decision. Rather than guessing the direction in those few minutes, I care more about whether the price can hold after all the news is fully digested.
There have been variables for several consecutive nights, and ironically, the first night is the easiest to get carried away. BTC trading has no closing bell, but human judgment gets fatigued. Treating a two-day test as a multiple-choice question with an answer revealed at once is a costly mistake.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC fell below $80,000 over the weekend, triggered by the US withdrawing personnel from the Middle East?
But before the drop, the signals were already clear👇
📉 ETF net outflows for two consecutive days totaled $773 million
📉 Coinbase premium has been negative for 31 consecutive days, US buying demand remains weak
📉 Long leverage piled up too high, a single crash caused liquidation of over $800 million in 24 hours
📉 Fed meeting on Wednesday, big funds reduced positions early to hedge risks
The withdrawal is just a matchstick; the firewood was already stacked.
The market always falls first, then looks for reasons.$MINIMAX
I don't see MINIMAX's kind of drop as an opportunity.
It dropped 10.8% in 1 hour, OKX perpetual is now at 20.79, down 12% in 24 hours, with a low of 20.59. It fell all the way down from 50 last month, already back to the low range of July.
The reason for the drop is not mysterious. The AI model price war is suppressing the valuation, MiniMax in the Hong Kong stock market is moving along with it, and this contract equals 1 share with 20x leverage, so the Hong Kong stock gap downs are fully absorbed. This coin has no spot market; the price is entirely set by the perpetual contract itself, with only a few million USD traded in 24 hours, making the liquidity very thin.
There is a lot of discussion on Orbit, with both bulls and bears. My view is simple: the pricing anchor is the coins held by others, so I have no say in the rise or fall. I don't take this kind of knife.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC
Michael Saylor didn’t post a BTC Tracker this weekend.
For the past half year, he almost every weekend showed increased holdings, but this time there was no movement at all. Some speculate MicroStrategy has stopped buying; the company hasn’t responded.
At the same time, Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.1259%. U.S. buyers have been unwilling to pay a premium for a month.
BTC is now around 79,600, OKX’s 24-hour low is 79,390, truly breaking below 80,000. I saw the morning news saying it stalled at 80,000, but after the market pulled, I realized it had already dropped.
Market dominance is actually rising. According to CoinGecko’s metrics, it’s nearly 60%, and the news says 57% is a new high since November 2022. Different algorithms vary slightly, but the direction is consistent: money hasn’t left, it’s all concentrated in BTC.
My judgment is that a slow decline on low volume is harder to endure than a sharp drop on high volume. It neither falls nor rises, wearing down patience. My position is light, so I’m just holding out.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC stuck at 80,000: Is the double bottom an illusion or the calm before the storm?
Watching BTC's market today, the more I look, the more "disgusted" I feel. It jumps up and down, liquidity is drying up, and both bulls and bears are getting hit.
1. What does the heatmap say?
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there are liquidation chips around 80,000, but the liquidation resistance above at 82,000-84,000 is equally heavy. This means: pulling up will face selling pressure from short liquidations; falling down leads to a liquidity vacuum below, possibly a free fall. The main players are currently exploding leverage on both long and short sides within this narrow range.
2. Technicals: Double bottom? Don't rush to conclusions
On the 4-hour chart, there seems to be a double bottom shape near 79,340. But looking at the moving averages: EMA9, EMA21, and EMA55 are all above the price, maintaining a bearish alignment. Without a volume breakout above the 82,000 neckline, the double bottom is just paper-thin.
3. Why is the rebound so weak? Some objective points:
1. Geopolitical conflicts + high oil prices: Tensions between the US and Iran keep oil prices high, reigniting inflation expectations and suppressing risk assets.
2. Cooling rate cut expectations: Oil-driven inflation reduces Fed rate cut expectations, raising funding costs and decreasing BTC's appeal.
3. ETF funds are still flowing out: In October, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $314 million, with insufficient institutional buying.
4. Whales are accumulating, but spot demand is weak: On-chain data shows large holders buying dips, but exchange balances are rising, indicating ongoing spot selling pressure.
4. My plan:
No guessing the direction. Let the market decide.
· If the rebound stalls at 80,500-81,000 → short with stop loss at 81,500.
· If volume breaks below 79,300 and then rebounds → follow the trend short, target 75,000.
· If volume breaks above 82,000 → double bottom confirmed, consider going long.
The most important thing now is not making money, but not letting this volatile market erode your principal.
Do you think BTC's double bottom can hold? Is the 75,000 liquidation zone already beckoning? Feel free to discuss in the comments!
$BTC $ETH Waiting before FOMC, bearish structure unchanged
BTC near 80,000, ETH near 2,330. After hitting a five-week low over the weekend, BTC barely recovered to 80,000. The fear and greed index is 45, indicating a cold sentiment.
Market and leverage: The technical bearish structure dominates, moving averages are downward, and rebounds are weak. Over 70% of long positions across the network were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Note: BTC's concentrated net long cost zone is at 81,993, with about 64% of longs currently at a floating loss. Continued decline could easily trigger a chain of liquidations, causing cascading selling pressure.
Capital flow: Although BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of 301 million this week ending the continuous outflow, 770 million was withdrawn on Thursday and Friday, returning October's cumulative flow to negative. Institutions proactively reduced exposure ahead of the FOMC. ETH ETFs remain bleak, with nearly 1.18 billion outflow in October, and the funding gap remains wide.
Macro: There is a 92% probability the FOMC will hold rates steady, but over 80% expectation of a rate hike in December. High oil prices continue to suppress risk assets.
Key levels:
BTC support at 79,170 is critical; resistance at 80,500-81,000.
ETH support at 2,280; resistance at 2,380.
In short: Long positions are crowded and cost-locked, ETFs withdrew funds at the close, and breakthroughs before the FOMC are unlikely. Do not chase shorts or bottom-fish. Wait for BTC to stabilize at 79,170 or break above 81,000 with volume before lightly trying longs. Position control is paramount before the decision.I don't think $BTC has confirmed a bottom yet, but the $80,000 level is becoming a key battleground for short-term bulls and bears 🧭. Currently, $BTC is around $80,500, and $ETH is about $2,350; Ethereum is relatively weak, reflecting that risk appetite among funds has not fully recovered, and the consensus to go long is still fragile 📉.
Next, I tend to expect consolidation: if the $80,000 level holds steady and effectively breaks through $82,000, the next resistance to watch is $84,000; if it falls below $78,600, beware of a second dip ⚠️.
Regarding ETFs, although the US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for two consecutive days, the entire week still recorded about $300 million in net inflows, indicating short-term capital divergence but not a reversal of the medium- to long-term allocation logic 📊.
Therefore, I am not chasing the rally nor rushing to be bearish; the key is to observe the $80,000 level closely 👀. Do you think $BTC will break above $82,000 first or fall below $80,000 first? 🤔
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC is now at 80074, down 0.78% in 24 hours, with the total market cap down 4.24% in the same period. BTC dominance is 59.98%, just one step away from 60%. The external environment over the weekend is forcing risk reduction: gold prices fell below $4000, the risk of renewed conflict between the US and Iran is rising, and the Brazil stock ETF listed in Tokyo was halted due to heavy sell orders. The same situation is visible in perpetual contracts, with EWZ funding rate at -1.48%, the most negative in the market, indicating shorts are hedging Brazilian assets with contracts. In the crypto space, major coins barely moved, the bleeding is in altcoins: $Q down 25.93%, $COMP down 11.17%, turnover rates at 18% and 17%. Against the trend, $CAP rose 38.48%, turnover 46%, funding rate +0.07%, driven by paid leveraged longs. In the next 72 hours, BTC dominance will stand above 60%, with altcoins continuing to underperform. The watershed is BTC at 80000; if it holds, the decline will be limited to altcoins, but if it breaks, risk-off selling will hit BTC as well, causing the total market cap to fall faster.## October FOMC Rate Decision to Be Announced This Week
European Central Bank October 29 Rate Decision Market-Implied Probabilities (Latest ECB-Watch Pricing)
Current Deposit Rate: 2.50%
1. Hold rates steady: 96% Baseline scenario
2. Raise rates by 25bp to 2.75%: 4%
3. Cut rates: almost 0, market prices no chance of a rate cut
I. Core Logic
Why a hold is highly likely in October
1. A 25bp hike was just completed in September; ECB’s policy framework is to assess at each meeting without preset paths, preferring to observe data over one meeting interval rather than consecutive hikes
2. Long-term bond yields have already risen, passively tightening financial conditions, partially substituting for ECB rate hikes; Lagarde has mentioned this multiple times
3. Reuters economist survey: 70 out of 73 economists expect rates to remain unchanged in October; market focus is on a December hike, not this month
Market pricing for December meeting: ~73% probability of a 25bp hike, which is the main battleground for this round of trading
II. Risks of Unexpected Surprises (Low-Probability Black Swan Events)
ECB would only hike rates directly in October if the following combination occurs:
- Energy prices surge again
- Core inflation rebounds beyond expectations
- Wage data rises sharply, showing signs of a wage-price spiral $CL $XAU 【US Buy Orders Haven't Picked Up for 33 Consecutive Days, How Can BTC Still Rebound?】
The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.1259%. This indicates that $BTC on Coinbase is trading at a discount relative to the global market, and the US market buy orders remain weak. Don't interpret this as a net outflow of US funds for 33 straight days, but the fact it hasn't turned positive for so long is indeed not a good sign.
Looking at ETFs, on October 19 and 21, there were net inflows of $526.7 million and $524.8 million respectively, but on the 22nd, there was a single-day net outflow of $635.6 million. Over four trading days, the total net inflow is still about $439.1 million, indicating institutional funds are not completely withdrawing; the problem lies in the poor sustainability of buy orders.
What needs the most caution now is that the price rebound is running ahead of US spot demand. The premium remaining negative means the rebound still lacks strong buy order confirmation; however, this indicator alone cannot determine that the market will immediately fall.
Next, watch two things: whether the premium can sustain turning positive, and whether ETFs can have continuous net inflows. If both improve simultaneously, the rebound will have more confidence; if the price rises but the premium continues to stay underwater, be cautious that the bulls might be prematurely celebrating for the market again.This market is really frustrating. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $525M, including $443M in long positions. This morning, $BTC officially broke below 80,000. What worries Ajian is that this figure was the only psychological integer support price in this round of decline. Once broken, the only technical support below is the long liquidation level at $76,764 and the 200-day moving average at $72,945. The area between these two levels is the last technical buffer zone for this downturn. Moreover, with the current inflow ratio between retail investors and whales being too high, it is not recommended to add positions or short now, because retail investors lack the capacity to average down, and blindly entering the market can easily turn them into marginal buyers, defeated by a lower cost basis. Otherwise, why do you think I said yesterday not to blindly follow Arthur Hayes' big bearish positions? This kind of behavior—selling off and immediately calling for a short—is meant to create liquidity narratives, using bearish sentiment to allow his remaining positions (if any) to be covered at lower levels. This is how industry rules work, just so you know. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Buying Bitcoin is for hedging risk.
Buying gold is also for hedging risk.
But in 2026, both ended up at the bottom, surprising?
Among 21 asset classes:
BTC -7.3%, gold -7.5%.
This is the first time since 2011 that they both tied at the bottom.
What about others?
Commodity basket +52.5%.
Even the most boring short-term government bonds gained +2.9%.
The most boring all won.
Why were Bitcoin and gold dumped?
Because they don’t pay interest.
Oil prices touched $116, inflation is rising.
The market bets on a 68% chance of a Fed rate hike.
When interest rates rise, those that don’t pay interest are definitely sold first.
Gold was still at 5400 at the start of the year, dropped to 3995 on Friday.
The momentum of last year’s 63.7% gain is gone.
BTC fell 35% from the peak of 126,000, losing for the second consecutive year.
But we have to look long term:
Since 2011, BTC’s average annual return is +120.6%, the highest on the chart.
My attitude:
Bottoming out is not scary, what’s scary is the reason.
This round, it’s interest rates killing it, not the story collapsing.
The Fed will speak first on Wednesday, and there are two months left this year to change rankings.
Don’t sell when it hurts the most.
If long term, it’s not the time to sell BTC,
and likewise, not the time to buy BTC either.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
The main driver of Q3 profit growth is not HBM4; HBM4's contribution to Q3 profits is limitedThe chain was hacked and halted, yet INIT actually touched a near one-year high of 0.1680. I’m not chasing this rise.
Here’s what happened: On 10/23 (UTC), the attacker exploited the Initia MoveVM vulnerability to create accounting entries out of thin air and transferred about 2.7 million USD, causing L1 and rollup to halt immediately.
$INIT initially probed 0.1134 that day, closed at 0.1503, with volume about 5.8 times the 50-day average; on 10/25 it peaked at 0.1680, roughly 29% higher than before the incident.
The official statement says native INIT was not inflated; however, Bitquery statistics show that the USDC reserves backing the chain once dropped to only 63 USD.
The official update on 10/24 did not provide a restart time nor mention who would cover the losses.
My view: The market only priced in the "INIT was not inflated" part, but did not price in "the chain has not restarted, and there is no compensation plan."
From the low of 0.0474 on 7/29, it has already risen 3.5 times, which seems more driven by sentiment.
What I’m doing: Observing without chasing, not catching a falling knife.
If the official announcement confirms restart plus compensation, and the daily chart holds above 0.1680, my judgment fails; if it falls below 0.1301 (the low on 10/24), then watch 0.1134, the incident low.
Honestly: The chain stopped but the coin rose—is this smart money bottom-fishing the incident, or someone pumping amid panic to dump?
$INIT $APT $SUI
#Railway安全事件波及多链资产安全 The stablecoin airdrop from standx has already been distributed. Looking at the airdrop amounts from several influencers, it’s not even enough for a meal of pork knuckles. If you only manage your finances within standx, that’s still okay—you can make a little bit of money.
But if you actually traded on standx, doing contracts and losing on fees, slippage, and funding rates, the current amount of stablecoins from the airdrop can’t cover your losses. It’s like trying to scalp profits but ending up getting scalped yourself.
I remember after last year’s airdrop from aster, there was a continuous surge, creating a strong wealth effect. At that time, I was traveling out of town. Following that was the wave of perpdex, with all kinds of contract DEXs flooding the market. The founder of standx was the head of contracts at a major exchange, highly praised by the market.
Back then, I had already formed this understanding: avoid crowded places, whether for scalping or buying coins, only play the leaders. Clearly, the leader of perpdex was hyperliquid, while standx was overcrowded with all kinds of hype on X, so I didn’t bother to scalp there.
Looking at it now, my judgment was correct. You still have to stick to avoiding crowded places, and avoid congested trading or scalping. Even during the L2 scalping bonus period from 2023 to 2024, fewer people scalped strk, and the final single account earned over $1,000. But many more scalped zk, with single accounts earning less than $500 and many even getting scalped themselves. This also illustrates the principle.Bitcoin has been consolidating around 80,000, with volume shrinking to half the usual level, and no one dares to make a move across the board. I've seen this kind of market many times — it's not bulls and bears fighting, but everyone waiting for something to fall into someone else's hands.
This Thursday, the US Q3 GDP and September PCE will be released together. Those who want to watch don’t need to focus on the candlesticks tonight, but on the first volume spike after the data. If the data is good, the rate cut expectations will be pushed further back, so don’t rush around the 80,000 level; if the data is bad, there might be a chance. Few who bet on the data ever get good results. From what I've seen over the years, the more people try to predict direction in advance, the more they get hit from both sides. $BTC The focus for the next week is still on the Nasdaq's movement. Whether the Nasdaq can stop falling here; if it effectively breaks below 258000, it means Bitcoin at 80,000 will also be lost. The next defense lines are 78,000 and 75,000. When will the Nasdaq stop falling, and when will Bitcoin bottom out?
I hope it will drop to give us a chance to pick up cheap chips and lower the average cost of building positions. So next, I will continue to buy in batches at these two levels, striving to accumulate enough chips to be fully invested!In the futures market, round number levels often act like a threshold; crossing them intraday doesn't necessarily mean the trend has changed. I have an old habit when reading such news: first, I look at the day's price change and open interest, then I consider how significant this "breakthrough" really is.
According to Hyperliquid perpetual contract public data, $BTC just broke above $80,000, currently at $80,192, but it is still down 0.82% over 24 hours; during the same period, the trading volume was about $1.467 billion, open interest about $3.396 billion, and the funding rate is 0.0011% per hour, roughly 9% annualized.
My judgment is that this news boosts short-term sentiment but is not enough to indicate a strengthening trend. Breaking a round number and still being down for the whole day are not contradictory; different observation windows can lead to different directional interpretations, and just looking at the headline can miss this nuance.
The difference between crypto perpetuals and traditional commodity futures also lies in this ongoing funding cost. A positive funding rate means longs bear the holding cost, and the annualized figure is just a current level extrapolation; without comparing open interest before and after, you can't infer that new longs are entering. I pay more attention to how price and open interest interact afterward, as this is the basis for judging funding sentiment.
From my old-school perspective, I still treat 80,000 as a key observation point. For friends who have transitioned from traditional markets, when you encounter such a breakthrough level but the intraday price is still down, do you first check changes in open interest or the funding rate, and why?The culprit behind the crash has been found! ETH is holding firm at 2300 without breaking the previous low—is this a reversal or a dead cat bounce?
This morning, ETH fell below 2300, mainly due to a cliff-like outflow of ETF funds: since October, spot ETF net outflows have exceeded $1 billion, setting the highest monthly record this year. Coupled with thin buy orders in the order book—the top five sell volumes are 12 times the buy volumes—there is no support for a short-term sell-off. But not breaking the previous low does not mean a reversal—MACD is still below the zero line, and the technical head and shoulders resistance remains. The area around 2300 looks more like a technical breather after an oversell.
Trading strategy
Aggressive players: Light long positions near 2300, aiming for a short-term rebound
Conservative players: Wait for a rebound near 2350 to set up short positions, or short on a volume breakout below 2280
Core logic: The previous low at 2281 is the key defense line; breaking it means accelerated decline, not breaking it leaves the possibility of a double bottom
At 2281, the main force has already defended twice. The third time, would you still trust it?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH Temporary loss of 22.78 million but no panic, what is this short-selling whale betting on? A whale who has accumulated profits of 180 million USD has earned an additional 25.22 million USD in the past 24 hours and currently holds three short positions with a total temporary loss of 22.78 million USD: BTC loss of 12.06 million, ETH loss of 4.76 million, SOL loss of 5.95 million. It looks unfavorable on the surface, but a closer look at the positions reveals confidence. BTC short 2,637 contracts, nominal 210 million USD, 5x leverage, average price 76,327; ETH short 106.40The U.S. IRS is about to open a cheap door for crypto tax back payments. The news says fines will be reduced, a 120-day processing window is given, and if funds are insufficient, installment payments are allowed. The whole arrangement aims to be implemented before December.
The significance of this matter lies in the fact that the cost of back reporting in the past was outrageously high. Many people didn’t report not because they didn’t want to, but because they were afraid to. Reporting meant paying fines plus interest, giving up all the floating profits over several years and still not enough. So they simply played dead, locking their coins in cold wallets as if nothing had happened.
Now it’s like the authorities have extended a step down. If you come forward voluntarily, the penalties are lighter and you can pay in installments. For those who casually bought during the 2017 bull market and later forgot to sell, this is probably the lowest-cost chance to get out.
But don’t read this as good news. The fact that taxes can be collected means this portion of holdings is recognized on the books, and it also means regulatory reach has extended to personal wallets. The ones who should really be worried are those who maintain profits by not reporting taxes; once the rules are clear, their hidden advantage disappears.
My advice is not to rush. Export your exchange transaction history, calculate your cost basis and sale times clearly, then decide whether to go for voluntary disclosure or ordinary back reporting—the fines differ greatly between the two. There’s also an easily overlooked point: installments require interest payments, so don’t just look at how much the fines have been reduced. 120 days sounds long, but just reconciling accounts can take up half that time, so don’t waste time hesitating.There is still a significant amount of liquidity sitting above, in the $0.12-$0.13 range. This suggests that $CAP may continue pushing higher toward that area, potentially wiping out a large number of short positions.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Brazil's IBOVESPA main board plunged 25% directly, and at this time today, it belongs to the 【global risk aversion resonance contagion】
Just coinciding with the storage sector crash wave we are currently watching:
Micron plummets → Changxin opens lower → South Korea's KOSPI turns red → Foreign capital in Brazil withdraws simultaneously, it's the same global risk aversion funds synchronously reducing risk assets, not a major black swan event unique to Brazil itself.
👉 But to be clear: Brazil's plunge is an emotional amplifier, not a core negative for SK Hynix.
Brazil is a resource country, completely unrelated to the storage chip industry chain, with no fundamental transmission; its role is to amplify the world's "panic sentiment," causing leveraged funds and programmatic ETFs to follow suit in selling, increasing the selling pressure on SK Hynix.
This news won't directly break SK Hynix below 133, but it has a bad effect:
The global risk aversion atmosphere is further strengthened, and the already fragile 95% long leverage positions will lose confidence more easily, making them more prone to stop-loss runs at the slightest disturbance.
Now the whole chain:
USD funds seek safety → Emerging markets (Brazil) are sold off first → Risk appetite declines → Tech storage sector continues to be under pressure.
✅ Unchanged discipline: the core anchor is still 133, watch if SK Hynix itself will break down with volume, no need to be scared into reckless operations by Brazil's plunge.
Brazil is just a risk aversion thermometer, not the fuse; the real determinant of SK Hynix's fate is still Micron and its own HBM guidance.At 8 AM I bet on an upward move, with the invalidation line at the 1H close breaking 79,840.
At 9 AM it closed at 79,757.8. After three hours, I admitted I was wrong.
The mistake was in the timing, not the range. The 79,000–81,300 range has not been broken yet.
But the judgment needs to be reversed: testing down to 79,220.
The highs have dropped for four consecutive days: 82,060, 81,849, 81,070, 80,955.
The leg raising the lows broke: 79,578 became 79,390. The triangle turned into a step.
The bulls are still being cleared: in the past hour BTC exploded with 12.8 million volume, 97.8% of which were long positions.
In four hours, 20.07 million volume, longs 94.5%; in twelve and twenty-four hours, both above 83%, only one round of clearing.
Open contracts increased by 2.2% in two hours, price fell back, premium -0.03% — shorts are increasing.
Contrary evidence: the breakout candle had 298.8 contracts traded, the 10-24 sell-off at 79,220 had 917 contracts, 32.6%.
A low-volume breakout is usually called a false breakout. I bet down: low volume means no one is taking the offer, not that someone is rushing in; a true breakout comes with volume.
Personal review, not investment advice.
Target 79,220, if broken look at 79,000. If before 10:00 on 10-27 it closes above 81,200, I admit I was wrong.
79,220, will you hold or exit?
$BTC #OctoberFOMC approaching, what variables remain with the Fed pausing rate hikes?🤯 Only dropped 2.26%, 50x long positions wiped out: the truth is leverage calculated as -113.00%
The numbers last night and this morning are flat: BTC 81033.69→80087.70, current price 80474 (-0.18%); ETH 2371.52→2318.00, current price 2341.72. The daily chart shows just a normal pullback, less than 3%.
But not for those with 50x leverage. ETH’s 2.26% drop multiplied by 50x is -113.00%, margin completely wiped out; BTC’s 1.17% retracement, 100x long positions also liquidated. Someone commented "a pipe dream," it’s not the market killing positions, it’s the leverage killing them.
My judgment: this is not a bear market turn, it’s leverage clearing. BTC 80000 has been repeatedly tested this week; if it holds, it’s still a consolidation; ETH is weaker, no support below 2340. What to be cautious of is not the drop itself, but the low-volume slow decline before the FOMC, which easily tricks people into adding positions.
📊 Investment advice
• BTC — Bullish, hold above 80000
Take Profit (TP): $86,900
Stop Loss (SL): $74,000
• ETH — Bearish, reconsider at 2380
Take Profit (TP): $2,060
Stop Loss (SL): $2,620
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile, please DYOR, risk at your own discretion. Meta's revenue exceeded expectations, but the market is focused on the spending guidance. Meta's Q3 revenue beat expectations as anticipated, but what truly made the market revise its stance was the capital expenditure guidance—which is still being raised. The tech giant is channeling cash into AI data centers, and the secondary market acknowledges this logic; the money flowing in this direction is real and substantial.
During the same period, trading volume in US stocks related to AI hardware and computing power has been increasing, while crypto has been downgraded overall. From October 12 to 16, the drop to 83K was exactly this kind of sell-off. The money hasn't disappeared; it's just shifted its queue.
The impact falls on valuation anchors. When risk appetite contracts, assets like BTC, which have no cash flow, are the first to be cut as optional holdings; later, there were several hundred million dollars of active buying during intraday trading, but prices didn't move accordingly, with both sides still probing each other.
The focus is on whether AI spending will face return doubts. Meta's revenue side is still exceeding expectations and holding up for now; as long as one giant lowers its spending guidance, the entire AI trade will be repriced together, and BTC will likely pull back accordingly.
At this point, I won't guess the bottom. Only after the price has stood above 90K for two consecutive days will I consider that funds have truly returned; conversely, if it falls below the 83K low, it means the valuation contraction driven by AI spending is not yet over.
#MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 $BTC This chain of events is absolutely wild.
The group wildly distributed 10,000 U in red envelopes, and the sudden surge in traffic crashed the system.
The OKEx official quickly apologized and even paid 10,000 U out of pocket to calm the public.
But the big spender who gave out the money then turned around, kept 10,000 U, and shorted, making a killing...
So in the end, only the system and the officials got hit, while the rich doing charity were just withdrawing.$XRP is now at 1.295, down 0.7 points for the week, $BTC down 2.3 points, $ETH down 3.5 points.
It really looks like a decoupling.
But stretched to thirty days, it doesn't seem like it; it dropped 15 points, while Bitcoin only dropped 5 points. The real reason is not complicated; the drops that should have happened by mid-October have already occurred.
I calculated the correlation myself: 0.97 over seven days, 0.93 over thirty days.
They are tightly linked.
Is this still called decoupling?
No money has actually come in; the spot ETF had a net inflow of 4.3 million USD for the whole week, but the net assets shrank from 1.77 billion to 1.48 billion in a month, so the incoming money can't even cover the shrinkage.
1.30 is the key level, with 1.34 above as the 20-day moving average.
Only if it holds above 1.30 can we talk about a rebound, with a target at 1.34. Breaking below 1.285 means a breakdown, next support at 1.2546.
A smaller drop doesn't necessarily mean strength; it might just mean it dropped first.
Keep an eye on which side of 1.30 the daily close lands.
$XRP Conclusion first: $EWZ crashed itself by 22% early this morning, while its corresponding US ETF closed at $42.59 on Friday, and the Brazilian stock market only opens tonight at 21:00.
$EWZ is the tokenized iShares MSCI Brazil ETF issued by Backpack on Solana. OKX spot XEWZ-USDT dropped from 45.10 to 34.01 in 24 hours, currently priced at 35.13, which is 17.5% cheaper than the real underlying price. During the same period, the real underlying closed at 42.59, Bovespa at 205,083, and USD/BRL closed at 5.0499 on Friday — no new information on the underlying.
$EWZ-USDT-SWAP with 20x leverage simultaneously crashed through; 219,000 contracts (about $8.7 million) traded in 24 hours, with only $670,000 open interest left; the 8-hour funding rate was hammered down to the floor at -1%, with shorts paying 1% every 8 hours.
OKX's announcement gave no explanation, and the other 155 tokenized stocks on the platform fluctuated within ±4% today, so it’s not a platform-wide malfunction.
The issue isn’t how much it dropped, but the 17.5% discount sitting there — why is no one arbitraging? Tonight at 21:00 Brazil and 21:30 US markets open simultaneously; before a new anchor is given, do you bet on a recovery or that the anchor is wrong?The focus of this type of whale is not the current unrealized loss of over 20 million USD, but how much capital they are willing to use to withstand this market movement.
A super short seller who has accumulated profits of 180 million USD and gained another 25.22 million USD in the past 24 hours currently holds BTC, ETH, and SOL positions all in unrealized loss, totaling about 22.78 million USD. Among them, BTC is down about 12.06 million, ETH about 4.76 million, and SOL about 5.95 million.
But when you break down the positions, you can understand why they can still hold steady for now:
BTC short position of 2,637 coins, nominal value about 210 million USD, 5x leverage, average price 76,327;
ETH short position of 106,400 coins, nominal value about 250 million USD, 5x leverage, average price 2,322;
SOL short position of 720,000 coins, nominal value about 73.87 million USD, 7x leverage, average price 94.3.
Combined, the nominal positions exceed 530 million USD.
What’s more noteworthy is their safety cushion. According to current position data, the liquidation price for BTC is about 140,000, ETH about 3,838, and SOL about 316, which still leaves significant room from the current prices.
So this is not simply a case of “holding onto losing short positions,” but a typical strategy of using leverage to control positions and exchanging a larger price range for more holding time.
Of course, a distant liquidation price does not mean there is no risk. What really needs caution is if the market continuously breaks through key resistance levels in the opposite direction and keeps approaching these danger zones.
#WillFedPauseInOctober Google will report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Cloud business needs to grow nearly 90% to meet expectations; I won't bottom-fish before the earnings.
The market expects revenue of about $111.6 billion this quarter, with Google Cloud growing around 89% year-over-year, compared to 82% last quarter.
Last quarter's capital expenditure was 44.9 billion, free cash flow turned negative 5.9 billion, and the full-year spending guidance was raised to 195 billion to 205 billion.
That quarter's revenue clearly beat expectations, yet the stock price was still hammered due to increased spending.
The contract is now around 322, two weeks ago it was above 355, and last week it dipped to 318 at the lowest.
The daily MA20 is about 341, MA50 about 343, and the price has already fallen below both lines.
I think this time everyone is focusing not on search ads, but on how much cloud revenue nearly 200 billion in spending actually brings.
If cloud growth falls back to just over 80% and spending increases further, the stock price, which has already dropped significantly, can't really be considered cheap.
I won't make any moves this week; I'll wait for the numbers.
If the daily closes back above 341, it means someone is rushing to cover before earnings, and I'll follow; if it breaks below 318, this correction isn't over yet.
That Wednesday night, are you more focused on Google Cloud's growth rate or the capital expenditure figures?
$GOOGL #AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ SanDisk (SNDK) is currently trading at about $1,238, down from $1,692 on October 7, a decline of about 4.6% over the week, but still up 421% year-to-date. The 52-week range spans from $164 to $2,354, with volatility more intense than most cryptocurrencies. The moving average structure is currently bearish: the price is below the short-term moving averages, and on October 22, it dropped 8.51% in a single day with volume swelling to 10.41 million shares, marking the largest recent bearish candle. The RSI has fallen but still has room before reaching oversold levels. The real anchor is the earnings report on October 29—Forward PE is only 5.76, and the market is betting on whether the performance can justify this valuation. The core contradiction in the news lies between the "data center narrative" and the "consumer cycle." Last quarter, data center revenue surged 645% year-over-year, with management framing AI inference demand for flash memory as a long-term story. Q4 revenue guidance is $7.75 to $8.25 billion, with gross margin guidance of 79% to 81%. However, the stock price halved from $2,354 to $1,238 not due to performance but expectations—when a stock's Forward PE is only 5.76, the market is not pricing in growth but rather "growth unsustainability." On October 14, it became the exclusive storage supplier for Meta VR glasses, and on October 13, it launched the Guardian series; these news items failed to lift the stock price. Before the earnings report, the $1,228 low is the only meaningful reference point. $BTC You can observe that in past bull markets just after recovery
The timeline from peak to trough corrections falls on
26, 22, 11, 22, 61, 60 days
Among them, the 20-day range occurs most frequently, and the longest correction only lasted 61 days
And now from the highest to the lowest, it has already corrected for 33 days
In the next month, if the decline continues
I will gradually position my low-leverage trades
$ETH The correction durations vary greatly
There was once a correction lasting 180 days with a 28% drop
If ETH now falls 28% in the worst case
It will reach around 2000 in price
And if it falls further now, at most it will drop another 15%