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The market is not waiting for Wash's answer, but for confirmation that the Federal Reserve can no longer provide an answer. Bitcoin surged over 25% in a week, surpassing $78,000. The 30-year US Treasury yield was pushed to its highest point since 2007. Gold hit a three-month high. Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver the most important speech since taking office this Friday at Jackson Hole. But guess what? The market might not care at all about what he says. Let's rewind to July 29. The Fed announced for the fifth consecutive time that it would keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Among the 12 voting members, 3 voted against, demanding a 25 basis point hike. This was the first time since 2016 that the Fed had three dissenting votes in a single decision. Then what happened? Wash's performance at the press conference was hard to describe. The statement was only about 115 words, shorter than June's 130 words, whereas previous meeting statements generally exceeded 300 words. When asked if there would be a rate hike in September, he refused all predictions, only saying "judgment will be based on the latest data," without providing a timeline. What was the result? The US stock market crashed that day. The Dow plunged 1,153 points, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2025. But interestingly—Bitcoin did not crash. Not only did it not crash, it surged 25% a week later. What does this indicate? Five years ago, if the Fed had 3 dissenting votes to forcibly hold steady and the chair was ambiguous, the market would have already collapsed. But this time, BTC held steady. The market is not afraid of rate hikes. It just no longer treats the Fed's words as "decrees." Since taking office in May, Wash has pursued a "speak less" strategy. He believes frequent Fed communication weakens monetary policy impact and causes the market to overly rely on central bank information. The result? Nearly 60% of academic economists believe it is now harder for the Fed to bring inflation back to 2% than at the time of his nomination. Former Boston Fed President Rosengren bluntly said: "This communication strategy is eroding the Fed's credibility." And Wash's last appearance after a rate decision already triggered a large-scale market sell-off. The data is even more painful. PCE inflation remains high at 3.7%, far exceeding the Fed's 2% target. US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion. The fiscal deficit is close to $2 trillion. Meanwhile, the AI boom is driving tech giants to aggressively issue bonds for financing. The Treasury wants to suppress long-term bond yields, and Bessent announced doubling the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks. The effect? It lasted less than a day. After a brief drop, the 30-year yield came under pressure again. The Treasury can adjust supply but cannot eliminate demand for capital. Capital is voting with its feet. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $1.92 billion over five trading days, marking the strongest week since October 2025. Year-to-date in August, Bitcoin ETFs have net inflows of $2.07 billion, making it the strongest month this year. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold is at its highest level since the pandemic. The market is sending a signal: the fiat currency system itself is the biggest risk asset. So does what Wash says on Friday still matter? TD Securities says if Wash continues to withhold information as usual, the market will be disappointed and may exacerbate long-term bond sell-offs. HSBC says if he is willing to make judgments on inflation pressure, it might soothe the market. But the problem is—Wash's entire management philosophy is "say nothing." The market is fundamentally not waiting for hawkish or dovish signals. It is waiting for a set of judgment criteria that connect economic data and policy actions. This set of criteria, Wash cannot provide. The Fed probably cannot provide it anymore. This is Bitcoin's "Independence Day." BTC's script has changed. It is no longer "Fed easing = rise, tightening = fall." Because more and more people realize—when the largest central bank can't even clearly say what it is doing, why would you stake your wealth on its credit? In recent years, BTC followed macro data and the Fed's words. But this round, no matter what Wash says, capital is running ahead. Running to gold. Running to Bitcoin. Running to anything that doesn't require the Fed's "explanation." The market is not waiting for Wash's answer, but for confirmation that the Fed can no longer provide an answer. That moment is BTC's Independence Day. $BTC $ETH $XAU #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径