Post

Two completely different answers in the same July. The US June PCE Price Index fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly negative growth since 2020. Inflation is cooling down, the data clearly shows it. So what? The 30-year US Treasury yield surged past 5.27%, the highest since 2007. The 10-year yield jumped to 4.733%, rising more than 30 basis points within the month, the largest July increase since 2005. On one hand, they say "inflation is cooling," on the other, "inflation is far from over." Who is lying? No one is lying. They are just looking at different time scales. PCE turning negative month-on-month—that's short-term. Oil prices rising about 20% in a single month, second-quarter domestic demand hitting a two-year high, and fiscal deficits worsening—these are long-term. Short-term looks at data, long-term looks at beliefs. The bond market is telling the Federal Reserve with real money: "I don't believe your 'inflation is temporary' theory." Fed Chair Waller announced on Wednesday to keep rates unchanged. Then what? Bond investors took matters into their own hands—the "bond vigilantes" proactively tightened financial conditions, pushing the 30-year yield up another 6 basis points. Waller himself said: The Fed's actions have been limited over the past 42 days, but the market has already done a lot of work. In plain language: You won't raise rates? Fine, I'll do it myself. What does this have to do with our Bitcoin? A lot. The 30-year US Treasury yield is the valuation anchor for global risk assets. Every 100 basis point increase deepens the valuation discount for all risk assets. Where is Bitcoin now? Around $63,000. It has fallen back from above $65,000, and bearish voices are everywhere in the market. Some analysts say it could drop to $60,000 to $62,000, citing "lack of macroeconomic support." The US Treasury offers you over 5% risk-free returns; why would anyone gamble on your cryptocurrency? This is not alarmism. US Treasury yields have already surpassed the returns from crypto arbitrage trades—why is marginal buying stuck in cash? That's the answer. But it's not that simple. At the FOMC meeting, three votes favored a rate hike, the first clear internal dissent since 2016. The Fed is fighting among itself. Even more contradictory: after the June PCE data release, short-term Treasury yields fell, but long-term yields held at the 19-year high of 5.2%. The market is voting with its feet—short-term data doesn't matter to me; I care about the long-term direction. Oil prices, domestic demand, fiscal deficits, AI investment demand—four forces simultaneously pushing long-term rates higher. This is not something a single negative month-on-month PCE can suppress. So is 5.27% the peak or a new starting point? My judgment is—if oil prices continue to rise, 5.27% is not the top. Gundlach has already said: long-term rates could surge to the "mid-5.5% range" before the next Fed meeting in September. And once the 30-year mortgage rate breaks 7.50% before year-end, borrowing costs will soar—that's real financial tightening, harsher than several Fed rate hikes. For us holding coins, only one thing is certain now: The Fed is watching, the bond market is acting, and Bitcoin is getting hit. The real bottom doesn't come from falling prices; it comes from a liquidity inflection point. And the gate to liquidity is now stuck at 5.27%—and the story behind it, that "the bond market doesn't trust the Fed." $BTC $ETH $XAU #30年期美债收益率创19年新高