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#AICreditSpreadsSoar #AICreditSpreadsSoar The AI-debt story has shifted from a slow burn into a genuine stress signal. Since September 2025, hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Oracle, Amazon, Nvidia) have more than doubled their collective dollar debt to over $360 billion, with Amazon's $25B deal last week the ninth jumbo (>$20B) offering this year — seven tied to hyperscalers. The Amazon deal pushed its own earlier-2026 30-year bond 20 basis points wider, a sign the market is genuinely straining to absorb the pace of supply. The demand math is deteriorating fast: the bid-to-cover ratio for hyperscaler bonds was nearly 5x in February but tumbled below 2x by July — "investors may need wider spreads to absorb additional hyperscaler supply," per one strategist — even as overall investment-grade demand barely budged. Oracle's five-year CDS has more than tripled since its September deal, and bondholders have sued Oracle, alleging it failed to disclose it would need to sell significant additional debt to fund AI buildout. The nuance: fundamentals still look solid on paper (post-issuance leverage 0.4-0.7x vs. the IG average near 3x, mostly AA ratings intact), and JPMorgan frames the widening as "rational pricing" of accelerating supply rather than distress. But hyperscalers have now nearly doubled their weight in investment-grade bond indices (2.2% to 4.1% in a year) — meaning any AI-revenue disappointment in H2 2026 earnings could force index-benchmarked funds to sell at scale, a systemic risk the pre-AI, bank-heavy bond market never carried.