#HormuzTermsInFocus
About HormuzTermsInFocus
US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain alive after Trump rejected Tehran’s seven-day proposal. Iran says normal transit could resume if the US ends its naval blockade, eases oil sanctions and releases frozen assets. Trump expects talks to continue this week. Kpler estimates September crude flows through the strait at about 7.4 million bpd, while major Middle East exporters are shipping at their highest levels since the war began. Will rising flows ease oil supply risks?
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Trump rifiuta il piano iraniano ma afferma che si continuerà a discutere questa settimana: la questione nucleare diventa la chiave per riavviare i negoziati
Autore: Xiao Yanyan, Jin10 Data
Il presidente degli Stati Uniti Trump ha dichiarato domenica ora locale che, nonostante abbia rifiutato la proposta di cessate il fuoco avanzata dall'Iran, prevede che gli Stati Uniti e l'Iran terranno ulteriori colloqui questa settimana. Due fonti regionali hanno confermato che un nuovo round di negoziati indiretti potrebbe iniziare già lunedì.
Il Qatar e altri mediatori regionali stanno lavorando per spingere entrambe le parti a tornare al tavolo delle trattativ
#HormuzTermsInFocus Reading this made me realize how much can depend on one narrow stretch of water 😵💫 The talks are still moving even after the latest proposal was rejected, so I’m definitely keeping an eye on what happens next. ([The Washington Post][1]) If shipping through Hormuz starts returning closer to normal, it could take some pressure off oil supply concerns, but there are clearly still a lot of conditions to work through. For now, I wouldn’t read too much into one headline — this feels like one of those situations where things can change very quickly. 👀🛢️🌊
[1]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/09/26/trump-rejects-iran-proposal-reopen-strait-hormuz-restart-peace-talks//?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, restart peace talks - The Washington Post"
🔥 US–IRAN TALKS JUST SHOOK CRYP
As tensions rise around the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are climbing again—and Bitcoin is feeling the pressure. Brent crude has moved above $105 as markets react to stalled diplomacy.
Why does this matter for crypto? Higher oil prices can fuel inflation fears, push investors toward safer assets, and increase volatility across risk markets.
If talks progress, risk sentiment could improve. If tensions escalate, crypto could face another shock.
#HormuzTermsInFocus
Terms matter more than headlines here. Talks remain active, but Iran’s conditions link transit to the blockade, sanctions and frozen assets, so higher crude flows do not automatically remove supply risk. With exporters already shipping heavily, the market may be pricing capacity before certainty.
#HormuzTermsInFocus
🇺🇸🇮🇷JUST IN: Oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz has doubled in less than a month to about 13 MILLION barrels a day.
That's back to July's brief peak, as the US military now guides tankers through the strait in broad daylight, per Fortune.
It comes as Trump rejected Iran's 7-day ceasefire offer to reopen the strait, saying Iran is "losing so badly" and the deal "would not be acceptable."
US officials believe time is now on their side, with Fortune reporting the naval blockade is "crushing Iran's economy."
WTI crude fell about 8% this week to $92.41, while Brent fell more than 2% on Friday.
But flows are still well below the roughly 20 MILLION barrels a day before the war, and each barrel now costs an extra $30 to $40 to get out, analysts estimate.
Rumors that Trump rejected Iran’s seven conditions have pushed crude to $96.70, though nothing is confirmed yet.
For now, it looks like a pressure-testing phase, not a full showdown. Both sides are testing each other’s limits, suggesting prolonged uncertainty.
Trading: Don’t chase—focus on swing setups and expectation gaps.
#BTC #ETH #CL #Oil #Iran #Trump
#BTCETF2.8BInflowStreak #USLongTermYieldsRise #Hormuz7DayPlanRejected
🚨 Trump just rejected Iran's 7-day ceasefire proposal
And it landed while US markets were closed
He also told aides he expects bombing to resume after the midterms, and told Iran the naval blockade stays $BTC
Iran's offer would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and restarted nuclear talks in exchange for lifting the blockade of its ports
$ETH
In short, Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal means uncertainty around the conflict and the Strait of Hormuz remains high.
Markets reacted quickly, with oil prices rising more than 1%. Brent traded around $105.64, while WTI was near $93.11 during Asian trading today.
#HormuzTermsInFocus
🇺🇲 Every tanker through the Strait now needs drone cover, terrified crews and a 3,000 km military resupply chain just to move fuel.
Jeffrey Currie says the oil itself is almost secondary:
“There is 7 million barrels per day of production shut in. I mean, that's a huge number.”
The real problem is the cost of keeping the route open.
At some point, the math stops working.
@CommodMkt
Mario Nawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The oil market thinks this war is almost over. The physical market says otherwise...
Fmr. Goldman Sachs head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie joins me with a stark assessment:
Yes, more oil is coming out of Hormuz than expected, but the real crisis is in the entire downstream chain from refining to distribution, and it's in "dire condition"
The Brent futures contract around $100 is what Currie calls a "vibe contract," set by Washington to manage sentiment, while physical Brent trades at $125-130.
7M barrels/day remain shut in, France has fuel shortages compounded by the Rhine being too low for barges, Europe failed to refill gas storage ahead of winter, the Panama Canal cannot move LNG, and the Russian grain corridor is GONE.
"Natural gas explodes this winter. Diesel is already at record levels. We are heading into VERY severe global shortages."
Futures markets are supposed to signal problems so behavior changes, but when those markets are manipulated to project calm, nobody invests, nobody prepares, and the car drives straight off the cliff.
The only question is what happens after the midterms, when the incentive to hold it all together is gone...
Thanks for joining me, @CommodMkt
