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🌅 On Monday morning, global financial markets collectively plummeted, with the trigger being renewed clashes between the U.S. and Iran. In the early hours of August 31, the U.S. military conducted an airstrike on Iran's Larak Island, marking the first publicly acknowledged physical military strike by the U.S. since the ceasefire agreement in July broke down. Unlike the unilateral partial blockade of the Strait by Iran in March, this time the U.S. military proactively targeted rocket launchers, prompting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to retaliate with missile strikes. The conflict has officially escalated from a simple oil price risk assessment to a direct and bilateral military confrontation. 💡Thought-provoking historical context Recently, Trump has signaled a willingness to negotiate and expressed an intention to initiate dialogue with Iran. The underlying logic: Domestically, the U.S. public is war-weary and eager to end the draining conflict in the Middle East; stabilizing oil prices and curbing inflation could also help secure public support for the midterm elections. This sudden attack has directly narrowed the space for diplomatic negotiations. There is a mainstream speculation in the market: certain influential forces are not pleased to see a smooth reconciliation between the United States and Iran. Israel has consistently opposed any compromise with Iran, as a ceasefire negotiation would undermine the legitimacy of its military actions; similarly, the hawkish faction within the United States is also reluctant to see the negotiations proceed smoothly. The crypto market weakened in sync, with BTC falling below the $78,000 mark. A noteworthy phenomenon: during this round of geopolitical disturbances, Bitcoin's movement has been synchronized with crude oil, rather than following the safe-haven rhythm of gold. Interestingly, the traditional safe-haven asset gold did not rise as expected but instead opened with a gap down.