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#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 CPI will be released tomorrow night, will $BTC go up or down? I'm betting on down Lying on the sofa scrolling through my phone tonight, I glanced at BTC's price, hovering around 64000. It surged to 65300 during the day but couldn't hold and dropped back down. CPI will be announced at 8:30 PM tomorrow, and the market is currently waiting for this data to set the direction. Last week when the non-farm payroll data came out, new jobs added were only 57,000, nearly half less than the expected 110,000. Logically, poor employment = no rate hike = bullish for BTC. So what happened? BTC rose for less than 5 minutes then dropped. Why? Because oil prices rose again. US-Iran negotiations stalled, Brent crude surged back to $89 [IMG_3168]. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise too, making the Fed even less likely to ease. On one hand, weak employment suggests easing; on the other, rising oil prices discourage easing. BTC is stuck between these two forces, unable to rise or fall decisively. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has climbed to 51.3%, up from about 44% a week ago. ETFs are also starting to exit. This indicates funds are pulling out ahead of the CPI release. Three CPI scenarios: Below expectations (<3.3%): bullish, BTC might surge to 70000. In line with expectations (3.3%-3.5%): sideways, continuing to fluctuate between 63000-65000. Above expectations (>3.6%): bearish, possibly retesting 60000-62000. I lean toward the third scenario, with limited upside and greater downside risk. The 65000 level has been tested multiple times without holding, showing clear selling pressure. Also, oil prices are still hovering above 80, and their inflationary impact won't disappear quickly. Since 65000 has been tested several times without breaking through, I'm betting on down. I'll wait for tomorrow's data before making a move, no rush.#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges