📉 $BTC is down 8% and has fallen below $85,000 while the crypto market erased nearly $200 billion in market cap. Once again, there was no crypto “news” behind the move, just a combination of structural factors: ▫️ The monthly close confirmed the breakdown of $107,000 and $98,000 levels ▫️ Liquidity remains severely weakened after the October 10 event ▫️ The market is still overloaded with leverage ▫️ Extremely thin activity typical of a Sunday night Conditions were perfect for a liquidation cascade: $900M wiped out in under 24 hours. Japan adds an additional layer of pressure. BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda is now openly considering a rate hike as early as December. The “yen carry trade”, which has quietly supported global risk-on for years, could unwind at the worst possible moment for the Fed. Our view remains unchanged: in the short term, BTC’s price action is driven by the probability of monetary easing in the US, and eventually a return to QE. With the situation in Japan, the odds of the Fed accelerating its easing cycle fall and BTC falls with it. We break down the full mechanics, the macro analysis, and our complete outlook in our new Premium report. → Subscribe to OAK Premium to read it (link in comments).