Fetch.ai price

1. Global macro variables reshape asset pricing paths: inflation, the US dollar and a new round of capital games In the second half of 2025, global financial markets will enter a new period dominated by macro variables. Over the past decade, liquidity ease, global collaboration, and technology dividends have formed the three pillars of traditional asset pricing. However, entering this cycle, these conditions are being systematically reversed, and the pricing logic of the capital market is also being deeply reshaped. As a frontier reflection of global liquidity and risk appetite, crypto assets' price trends, capital structures, and asset weights are being driven by new variables. The three core variables are the stickiness of structural inflation, the structural weakening of US dollar credit, and the institutional differentiation of global capital flows. First, inflation is no longer a short-term volatility problem that can be quickly suppressed, but is beginning to show a stronger "sticky" characteristic. In advanced economies represented by the United States, core inflation has always remained at a high level of more than 3%, much higher than the Fed's target of 2%. The core reason for this phenomenon is not simple monetary expansion, but structural cost drivers that continue to solidify and amplify themselves. Although energy prices have fallen back to a relatively stable range, the sharp increase in capital expenditure brought about by artificial intelligence and automation technology, the price increase effect of upstream rare metals in the process of green energy transition, and the rise in labor costs caused by the reshoring of manufacturing have all become sources of endogenous inflation. At the end of July, the Trump team reaffirmed that it would fully resume high tariffs on bulk industrial and technological products from China, Mexico, Vietnam and other countries from August 1, a decision that not only heralded the continuation of the geopolitical game, but also meant that the U.S. government regarded inflation as an acceptable "strategic price". In this context, the cost of raw materials and intermediate products faced by U.S. companies will continue to rise, driving a second round of rise in consumer terminal prices and forming a pattern of "policy-driven cost inflation". This is not overheated inflation in the traditional sense, but policy-led embedded inflation, and its persistence and penetration of asset pricing will be much stronger than in 2022. Second, against the backdrop of still high inflation, the Fed's interest rate policy is difficult to loosen quickly, and the high federal funds rate of more than 5% has been expected by the market to remain at least until mid-2026. This forms a "repressive pricing" for the traditional stock and bond market: the yield structure of the bond market is inverted, duration products are seriously damaged, and the stock market is facing the continuous increase of the discount factor on the valuation model. In contrast, the valuation logic of crypto assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, is more based on the three-way superposition model of "expected growth-scarcity-consensus anchor", which is not directly constrained by traditional interest rate tools, but has gained more capital attention due to its scarcity and decentralization characteristics in a high-interest rate environment, showing "anti-currency cycle" pricing behavior. This characteristic has led to the gradual transformation of Bitcoin from a "highly volatile speculative product" to an "emerging alternative value reserve asset". More profoundly, the US dollar's global "anchor" position is facing structural weakening. The U.S. fiscal deficit continues to expand, with the federal deficit exceeding $2.1 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, up 18% year-on-year and a record high for the same period in history. At the same time, the United States' status as a global settlement center is facing decentralization challenges. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, India and other countries are promoting local currency interconnection mechanisms on a large scale, including cross-border payment systems such as RMB-dirhams and rupee-dinars that have begun to replace some US dollar settlements. Behind this trend is not only the cyclical damage caused by the dollar policy to non-US economies, but also the active decoupling attempt of these countries to decouple from the "single currency anchor". In this environment, digital assets become neutral, programmable, and de-sovereignized alternative mediums of value. For example, stablecoins such as USDC and DAI have expanded rapidly in OTC transactions and B2B cross-border payments in the Asian and African markets, becoming a digital extension of the "underground dollar system in emerging countries", while Bitcoin has become a safe haven for capital flight and global funds to fight against the depreciation of the local currency. Taking Argentina, Nigeria, and Turkey as examples, the purchasing power premium of their residents for BTC has reached more than 15%, reflecting the real capital hedging demand. It is worth noting that while the trend of de-dollarization continues to accelerate, the US dollar's own internal credit system is also weakened. Moody's and Fitch simultaneously downgraded the long-term sovereign credit rating outlook of the United States to "negative" in June 2025, mainly due to "structural irreversibility of long-term fiscal deficits" and "political polarization affecting the implementation of the budget mechanism". The systematic warning of U.S. Treasury bonds by rating agencies has triggered amplified volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, leading safe-haven funds to seek diversified forms of reserves. ETF purchases of gold and Bitcoin rose rapidly during the same period, showing the preference of institutional funds for the reallocation of non-sovereign assets. This behavior reflects not only the need for liquidity, but also the "valuation flight" of the traditional asset system, that is, in the case of the gradual overdraft of US stocks and bonds, global capital seeks alternative anchors to rebalance the "system security" of its portfolios. Finally, institutional differences in global capital flows are reshaping the boundaries of asset markets. Within the traditional financial system, issues such as stricter regulation, valuation bottlenecks, and rising compliance costs are limiting the expansion space of institutional funds. In the crypto field, especially affected by the passage of ETFs and the relaxation of the audit system, crypto assets are gradually entering the stage of "legitimacy of the compliance system". In the first half of 2025, a number of asset management companies will be approved by the U.S. SEC to launch themed ETFs including SOL, ETH, and AI crypto assets, and funds will indirectly enter the chain through financial channels, reshaping the fund distribution pattern between assets. Behind this phenomenon is the increasing dominant role of institutional structure in the path of capital behavior. Therefore, we can see an increasingly clear trend: changes in traditional macro variables – including the institutionalization of inflation, the passivation of dollar credit, the long-term high interest rates, and the policy diversion of global capital – are collectively driving the beginning of a new era of pricing. In this era, value anchors, credit boundaries, and risk assessment mechanisms are being redefined. Crypto assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, are gradually moving from a liquidity bubble stage to an institutional value acceptance stage, becoming direct beneficiaries under the marginal restructuring of the macromonetary system. This also provides a basis for understanding the "spindle logic" of asset price movements in the coming years. For investors, the update of cognitive structure is far more critical than short-term market judgment, and future asset allocation is no longer only a reflection of risk appetite, but also a reflection of the depth of understanding of institutional signals, monetary structure and global value system. 2. From MicroStrategy to Listed Company Financial Reports: The Institutional Logic and Diffusion Trend of Currency Stock Strategy In the 2025 cycle, the most structurally transformative force in the crypto market comes from the rise of the "currency stock strategy". From MicroStrategy's early attempts to use Bitcoin as a corporate financial reserve asset to more and more listed companies actively disclosing the details of their crypto asset allocation, this model is no longer an isolated financial decision, but has gradually evolved into a corporate strategic behavior with institutional embedding. The currency stock strategy not only opens up the flow channel between the capital market and on-chain assets, but also gives birth to new paradigms in corporate financial reports, equity pricing, financing structure, and even valuation logic. From a historical perspective, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy has been seen as a "desperate" high-volatility game, especially during the sharp decline in crypto assets in 2022-2023, and the company's stock price was once questioned. However, in 2024, as the price of Bitcoin broke through all-time highs, MicroStrategy successfully reconstructed its financing logic and valuation model through a structured strategy of "currency-stock linkage". The core of this is the synergistic drive of the triple flywheel mechanism: the first layer is the "stock-currency resonance" mechanism, that is, the BTC assets held by enterprises continuously amplify the net value of crypto assets in financial statements through the rise in currency prices, thereby pushing up the stock price, which in turn significantly reduces the cost of subsequent financing (including additional issuance and bonds); The second layer is the "equity-bond synergy" mechanism, which introduces diversified funds through the issuance of convertible bonds and preferred shares, while using the market premium effect of BTC to reduce overall financing costs. The third layer is the "currency debt arbitrage" mechanism, which combines the traditional fiat currency liability structure with the logic of crypto asset appreciation to form a cross-cyclical capital transfer in the time dimension. After the successful verification of MicroStrategy, this mechanism was quickly widely imitated and structured by the capital market. Entering 2025, the currency stock strategy is no longer limited to the experimental allocation of a single enterprise, but as a financial structure with both strategic and accounting advantages, it will spread to a wider range of listed companies. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of July, more than 35 listed companies around the world have explicitly included Bitcoin in their balance sheets, of which 13 are allocating ETH at the same time, and another 5 are trying to allocate mainstream altcoins such as SOL, AVAX, FET. The common characteristics of this structural allocation are: on the one hand, it builds a closed loop of financing through the capital market mechanism, and on the other hand, it improves the book value and shareholder expectations of enterprises through crypto assets, thereby pushing up valuation and equity expansion capabilities, forming positive feedback. Supporting this trend of diffusion is first of all changes in the institutional environment. The GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, which were officially implemented in July 2025, provide a clear compliance path for listed companies to allocate crypto assets. Among them, the "mature blockchain system" certification mechanism set by the CLARITY Act directly includes core crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum in the supervision of commodity attributes, strips the SEC of its securities supervision power, and creates legal legitimacy for the allocation of these assets in corporate financial reports. This means that listed companies do not need to include their crypto assets as "financial derivatives" in the risk account, but can be included in long-term assets or cash equivalents as "digital commodities", and even participate in depreciation or impairment provisions in some scenarios, thereby reducing accounting volatility risks. This transformation has allowed crypto assets to be juxtaposed with traditional reserve assets such as gold and foreign currency reserves and enter the mainstream financial statement system. Secondly, from the perspective of capital structure, the currency stock strategy has created unprecedented financing flexibility. In the Fed's high-interest rate environment, the financing costs of traditional enterprises remain high, especially small and medium-sized growth enterprises are difficult to achieve leverage expansion through low-cost debt. Enterprises allocating crypto assets can not only obtain higher price-to-sales ratios and price-to-book ratios (PS and PB) in the capital market through the valuation premium brought about by rising stock prices, but also use crypto assets themselves as collateral to participate in new financial operations such as on-chain lending, derivatives hedging, and cross-chain asset securitization, so as to achieve a dual-track financing system: that is, on-chain assets provide flexibility and yield, and off-chain capital markets provide scale and stability. This system is particularly suitable for Web3-native enterprises and fintech companies, allowing them to gain a degree of freedom in capital structure that far exceeds traditional paths under the compliance framework. In addition, the currency stock strategy has also triggered a shift in investor behavior patterns. After crypto assets are widely allocated to the balance sheets of listed companies, the market has begun to repricing the valuation models of these companies. Traditionally, corporate valuations are based on indicators such as profitability, cash flow expectations, and market share, but when large crypto asset holdings appear in corporate earnings reports, their stock prices begin to show a synergistic movement that is highly correlated with currency prices. For example, the stock prices of companies such as MicroStrategy, Coinbase, and Hut8 have far exceeded the industry average during Bitcoin's bull cycle, showing a strong "gold content" premium for crypto assets. At the same time, more and more hedge funds and structured products have begun to regard these "high-currency weighted" stocks as ETF substitutes or crypto asset exposure proxy tools, thereby increasing the allocation proportion in traditional investment portfolios. This behavior structurally promotes the financialization of crypto assets, allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum to not only exist as assets themselves, but also obtain indirect circulation channels and derivative pricing functions in the capital market. Further, from the perspective of regulatory strategy, the proliferation of the currency stock strategy is also seen as an extension tool for the United States to maintain its "dollar voice" in the global financial order. Against the backdrop of the rising trend of CBDC (central bank digital currency) global pilots, the continuous expansion of RMB cross-border settlements, and the European Central Bank's promotion of digital euro testing, the US government has not actively launched a federal-level CBDC, but has chosen to shape a decentralized dollar network through stablecoin policies and "regulable crypto markets". This strategy requires a compliant, high-frequency, and large-scale deposit capability for market entry, and listed companies, as a bridge connecting on-chain assets and traditional finance, take on this function. Therefore, the currency stock strategy can also be understood as the institutional support of "non-sovereign digital currency to replace the circulation of US dollars" in the US financial strategy. From this perspective, the allocation of crypto assets by listed companies is not a simple accounting decision, but a participatory path in the adjustment of national financial structure. The more far-reaching impact is the global diffusion trend of capital structure. As more and more U.S. listed companies adopt currency stock strategies, listed companies in Asia-Pacific, Europe, and emerging markets are also beginning to follow suit and try to gain compliance space through regional regulatory frameworks. Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, Switzerland and other countries are actively revising securities laws, accounting standards and tax mechanisms to open up institutional channels for domestic enterprises to allocate crypto assets, forming a competition pattern for the acceptance of crypto assets in the global capital market. It is foreseeable that the institutionalization, standardization and globalization of currency stock strategies will be an important evolution direction of corporate financial strategies in the next three years, and will also be a key bridge for the deep integration of crypto assets and traditional finance. To sum up, from the single point breakthrough of MicroStrategy, to the strategic diffusion of multiple listed companies, and then to the standardized evolution at the institutional level, the currency stock strategy has become a key channel connecting on-chain value and traditional capital markets. It is not only an update of asset allocation logic, but also a reconstruction of the financing structure of enterprises, and the result of a two-way game between system and capital. In this process, crypto assets have gained wider market acceptance and institutional security boundaries, completing the structural transition from speculative products to strategic assets. For the entire crypto industry, the rise of cryptocurrency strategies marks the beginning of a new cycle: crypto assets are no longer just on-chain experiments, but have truly entered the core of the global balance sheet. 3. Compliance trends and financial structure transformation: the institutionalization of crypto assets is accelerating In 2025, the global crypto asset market is at a historical juncture where the wave of institutionalization is fully accelerating. In the past decade, the main axis of the crypto industry has gradually shifted from "innovation speed overwhelms regulatory rhythm" to "compliance framework drives industry growth". After entering the current cycle, the core role of regulation has evolved from "law enforcer" to "institutional designer" and "market guide", which reflects the re-understanding of the structural influence of the national governance system on crypto assets. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the implementation of the Stablecoin Act, the launch of accounting standards reform, and the reshaping of the risk and value assessment mechanism of digital assets by the capital market, the compliance trend is no longer an external pressure on the development of the industry, but has become an endogenous driving force for the transformation of the financial structure. The core of the institutionalization trend is first reflected in the clarification and gradual relaxation of the regulatory framework. From the end of 2024 to mid-2025, the United States successively passed the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act, and the FIT for the 21st Century Act, providing unprecedented clarity in terms of product attribute determination, token issuance exemption conditions, stablecoin custody requirements, KYC/AML rules, and accounting standards applicable boundaries. The most structurally impactful of this is the "commodity attributes" classification system, which treats basic public chain assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum as tradable commodities and clearly excludes securities law supervision, which not only provides a legal basis for ETFs and the spot market, but also creates a deterministic compliance path for enterprises, funds, banks and other institutions to include crypto assets. The establishment of this "legal label" is the first step in institutionalization, and also lays the foundation for subsequent tax treatment, custody standards, and financial product structure design. At the same time, the world's major financial centers are competing to promote localized institutional reforms, forming a competitive pattern in which "regulatory depressions" have turned into "regulatory highlands". Singapore's MAS and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority have launched multi-level licensing systems to include exchanges, custodians, brokers, market makers, and asset managers in differentiated regulatory frameworks, setting clear thresholds for institutions to enter the market. Abu Dhabi, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom have piloted on-chain securities, digital bonds, and composable financial products at the capital market level, making crypto assets not only exist as asset classes, but also gradually evolve into the underlying elements of financial infrastructure. On the one hand, this "policy experimental field" mechanism ensures innovation vitality, and on the other hand, promotes the digital transformation of the global financial governance system, providing a new path for institutional upgrading and coordinated development of the traditional financial industry. Under the impetus of the system, the internal logic of the financial structure has also undergone profound changes. The first is the restructuring of asset classes, with the proportion of crypto assets in the allocation strategy of large asset management institutions increasing year by year, from less than 0.3% of global institutional allocation in 2022 to more than 1.2% in 2025, and is expected to exceed 3% in 2026. This proportion may not seem high, but the marginal flow represented in a tens of trillions of dollars in asset pools is enough to rewrite the liquidity and stability structure of the entire crypto market. Blackstone, Fidelity, BlackRock and other institutions have not only launched BTC and ETH-related ETFs, but also included crypto assets in the core asset allocation basket through their own funds, FOF products, and structured notes, and their role as risk hedging tools and growth engines has gradually taken shape. In the past, the main trading methods of crypto assets were limited to spot and perpetual contracts, but driven by compliance, the market quickly derived a variety of product forms embedded in traditional financial structures. For example, crypto ETFs with volatility protection, bond products linked to stablecoin interest rates, on-chain data-driven ESG asset indices, and on-chain securitization funds with real-time settlement capabilities. These innovations not only enhance the risk management capabilities of crypto assets but also lower the threshold for institutional participation through standardized packaging, allowing traditional funds to effectively participate in the on-chain market under compliant channels. The third layer of financial structure transformation is reflected in the clearing and custody model. Starting in 2025, the U.S. SEC and the CFTC will jointly recognize three "compliant on-chain custody" institutions, marking the formal establishment of a bridge between asset ownership, custody responsibilities and statutory accounting entities for on-chain assets. Compared with the previous model based on centralized exchange wallets or cold wallet custody, compliant chain custodians realize hierarchical asset ownership, transaction authority isolation, and on-chain risk control rule embedding through on-chain verifiable technology, providing institutional investors with risk control capabilities close to the level of traditional trust banks. This change in the underlying custody structure is an institutionalized key infrastructure construction link, which determines whether the entire on-chain finance can truly carry complex structured operations such as cross-border settlement, mortgage lending, and contract settlement. More importantly, the institutionalization of crypto assets is not only a process of regulatory adaptation to the market, but also an attempt by the sovereign credit system to incorporate digital assets into the macrofinancial governance structure. As stablecoins exceed $3 trillion in daily trading volume and begin to assume actual payment and clearing functions in select emerging markets, central banks are increasingly complex in their attitudes towards crypto assets. On the one hand, the central bank promotes CBDC research and development to strengthen the sovereignty of its own currency; On the other hand, some compliant stablecoins (such as USDC and PYUSD) adopt the open management of "neutral custody + strong KYC", which essentially allows them to undertake international settlement and payment clearing functions within a certain regulatory scope. This change in attitude means that stablecoins are no longer the target of confrontation for central banks, but one of the institutional containers in the process of restructuring the international monetary system. This change in structure is ultimately reflected in the "institutional boundaries" of crypto assets. The market in 2025 is no longer divided by the discontinuous logic of "currency circle-chain ring-outside the circle", but is forming three continuous levels of "on-chain assets-compliant assets-financial assets". The existence of channels and mapping mechanisms between each level also means that each type of asset can enter the mainstream financial market through a certain institutional path. Bitcoin has changed from an on-chain native asset to the underlying target of ETFs, Ethereum has changed from a smart contract platform asset to a general-purpose computing financial protocol token, and even the governance tokens of some DeFi protocols have entered the FOF fund pool as a risk exposure tool for hedge funds after structured packaging. This flexible evolution of institutional boundaries makes the definition of "financial assets" truly cross-chain, transnational and cross-institutional for the first time. From a broader perspective, the essence of the institutionalization of crypto assets is the stress adaptation and evolution of the global financial structure under the wave of digitalization. Unlike the "Bretton Woods" and "petrodollar system" of the 20th century, the financial structure of the 21st century is reconstructing the basic logic of resource flows and capital pricing in a more distributed, modular and transparent way. As a key variable in the evolution of this structure, crypto assets are no longer outliers, but digital resources that are manageable, auditable, and taxable. This institutionalization process is not a sudden change in a policy, but a systematic evolution of the synergistic interaction between regulation, market, enterprise, and technology. Therefore, it is foreseeable that the institutionalization process of crypto assets will further deepen, and three types of coexistence models will be formed in major economies around the world in the next three years: one is the "market opening + prudential supervision" model led by the United States, with ETFs, stablecoins, and DAO governance as the main axis of the system; The first is the "restricted access + policy guidance" model represented by China, Japan, South Korea, etc., which emphasizes the central bank's control and licensing mechanism; Another type is the "financial intermediation experimental zone" model represented by Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland, which provides institutional intermediary between global capital and on-chain assets. The future of crypto assets is no longer the struggle of technology against the system, but the restructuring and absorption of technology by the system. 4. Write at the end: From Bitcoin ten years to currency stock linkage, welcome the new pattern of crypto In July 2025, Ethereum will celebrate its 10th anniversary, and the crypto market will also move from early experiments to institutional justification. The widespread launch of the currency stock strategy symbolizes the deep integration of traditional finance and crypto assets. This cycle is no longer just a market start, but also a structural and logical reconstruction: from macro currency to corporate assets, from crypto infrastructure to financial governance models, crypto assets have truly entered the scope of institutional asset allocation for the first time. We believe that in the next 2-3 years, the crypto market will evolve into a ternary structure of "on-chain native income + compliant financial interface + stablecoin driven". The currency stock strategy is only the prologue, and the deeper capital integration and governance model evolution have just begun.