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Ethena Q4 Earnings Estimates, with Annualized Credits @ethena_labs The airdrop points rules are very mature, and there are few uncontrollable factors: S4 has been determined until September 24, the minimum distribution of 3.5% tokens, what minimum position requirements have been canceled since S3, and the special regulations only leave 33% of the rewards to be unlocked for the top 2000 addresses (Sats mined by the USDe pool on Pendle can be exempted)... Sats credit emissions are also fairly stable (~34T at present), so the value of credits can be almost estimated from the $ENA currency price 💡 As a result, the @pendle_fi YT of the Ethena series is basically "a kind of PT" = $ENA after three months of buying at a discount For example, if you refer to the 60x column of the integral multiplier in the table below, if you value it at $ENA=$0.27, the integral income (3-month APY) is about 9.13%. Filling in the 9.13% calculator on the Pendle interface (see Figure 2) can calculate the USDe YT for September bought at about 7.5% of the current price, and the final profit (ROI) is 22% - or about the equivalent of buying the $ENA three months after buying at a discount of 18.5%. Note: Most people actually have at least 10% points plus and multiplier (e.g. loyalty multiplier), so the table also attaches an annualized increase of 10% for reference (in the above example, if 60x is increased to 66x, the point income is about 10.05%, which is equivalent to 35% ROI / 26% discount to buy coins) In other words, the current YT-USDe with a 7.5% cost has ~18.5-26% "room for decline", which of course the more the better, so it depends on your buying point. For example, with a 7% YT cost, also valued at $ENA=$0.27, the ROI will rise to 33-46%, or equivalent to a 25-31% discount My current operation is to hang up the limit order and wait for the cheap YT that falls down for a while [LP] If you are not interested in buying YT, in fact, the Ethena stablecoin LP on Pendle has a very good return: since 85% of the content in LP is currently "SY" with points, when we look at the annualization of LP, we should also add the expected annualized rate of LP points to the number displayed on the Pendle interface. The table also attaches the credit income of LPs, for example, the maximum annualized UI of the USDe LP pool in July is displayed as 13%, which is ~20.8% after adding the credit expectation As long as Pendle LP is held to maturity, it guarantees capital preservation at a minimum currency standard (USDe margin), and all annualized/emissions/credits are earned for nothing Finally, the above is just to share the idea of personal analysis of Ethena points, NFA &DYOR If you want me to update this form regularly, please like, leave a message, forward and share, thank you!