#TreasuryUpsBuybacks

Bitcoin ripped about 7% on Wednesday and briefly touched $69,750, its highest since early June and biggest single day percentage gain since March. Coinglass put 24 hour short liquidations near $1.37 billion, over $1 billion inside an hour. The clearest macro catalyst was Treasury debt management, not Fed policy. Treasury will at least double its long end liquidity support buybacks, lifting the per operation cap to at least $4 billion on 10 to 30 year paper, Sept 9 through Nov 4. The 30 year yield fell about 9bp to roughly 5.19%. Lower long end yields mean less opportunity cost for holding an asset that pays none. The Fed was pulling the other way. July's 9 to 3 vote, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari dissenting for a hike, was known in July, its first three way same direction dissent since 2016. Wednesday's minutes added the debate: AI related price pressures alongside tariffs and energy. Flows tell a messier story: · Spot BTC ETFs bled $390 million Aug 10 to 14, FBTC leading at $153 million · Then $297 million in Aug 17 and $189 million Aug 18 · Wintermute flagged miner selling and ETF redemptions as a supply drag So this was a positioning led move rather than proof of durable demand. Shorts were crowded, a macro headline hit, the squeeze did the rest. The bigger story came a day earlier. On Aug 18 the SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, its first crypto offering framework. Emphasis on proposed: 60 day comments, nothing in force. As drafted, two registration exemptions, $5 million over four years or $75 million per 12 months plus financial statements and reporting. The centerpiece is a conditional safe harbor. It is not automatic. The issuer must permanently cease all essential managerial efforts, make no new promises, and file a public certification. Preemption reaches only transactions the rule covers. BTC opened the year near $87,500. August is a recovery inside a wider drawdown. Two stories, 24 hours apart. Which one still matters a year from now, the price move or the SEC framework? #BTCBreaks69000 #TreasuryUpsBuybacks #FOMC9To3Split

🇺🇸 US Treasury announced it will at least double the level of government debt buybacks in the next few months. US 30Y bond yield is dropping hard after this.

🔴 Treasury Boosts Buybacks U.S. Treasury is raising long-end liquidity support buybacks from $2B to $4B+ per operation starting Sept. 9. More liquidity support could ease pressure on long-term yields and impact risk assets. Watching closely. #XiaomiQ2Earnings

BREAKING: The U.S. Treasury will at least double its long-dated bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation beginning September 9. The increase will run through November 4 and aims to boost liquidity in the 10-year to 30-year Treasury market. $BTC

Market News: The U.S. Treasury Department announced an increase in the issuance volume of nominal long-term Treasury bonds. Following the Treasury’s announcement of its repurchase program, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened significantly! This has contributed to the dollar’s decline, and gold has once again broken through the $4,400 mark. The recent wide-range consolidation has been a headache for many, but the medium- to long-term bull market remains intact! #XAUUSD #GOLD

THE TREASURY JUST PUBLISHED THE EXACT NUMBERS SHOWING WHO'S WALKING AWAY FROM AMERICAN DEBT Not vague concern. Not "markets are fine." NAMED HOLDERS. SPECIFIC NUMBERS. Country by country. 🇺🇸 US Treasury → doubles long-bond buybacks from $2B to $4B per operation, starting Sept 9 🇺🇸 30-year yield → hit 5.337% Tuesday, highest since 2007 🇺🇸 National debt → crossed $40 TRILLION the same week 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Warsh → refuses to cut rates while this unfolds 🇯🇵 Japan → cut Treasury holdings $26 BILLION in June alone 🇯🇵 Japan → roughly $123 BILLION dumped since February defending the yen 🇨🇳 China → Treasury holdings fell to $633.4B in June 🇨🇳 China → lowest holdings level since September 2008 🌍 Bond strategists → El-Erian calls this "yield curve control," not a rescue 🌍 Analysts → Boockvar: "not a debt paydown, just a rearrangement of the maturity schedule" 💀 $2 billion → $4 billion per operation, doubled overnight 💀 30-year yield: highest print in 19 YEARS 💀 China Treasury holdings: 18-YEAR LOW 💀 This is NOT QE — every buyback is funded by MORE new debt Every line on this list points to the same problem: the biggest buyer left standing for America's longest debt is America's own government. Bessent's buyback expansion begins September 9. These are the numbers walking in. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

The Bessent Put Today the US Treasury doubled the size of its long-end bond buybacks, the day after the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high at 5.33%. The extra dollars are small. The signal is enormous. For the first time, the fiscal authority, not the Fed, stepped in to defend the long end within 24 hours of the highs. There is now a put under the long bond, and the market has just been told the top of the range... Look at the plumbing underneath it... The buybacks pull old, illiquid bonds off dealer balance sheets and get funded at the front end with bills, which the banking system absorbs. Duration out, money-like paper in. Lower long-end volatility raises the collateral value of every Treasury in the repo system, which is itself a liquidity easing. And the QRA language quietly changed two weeks ago to allow exactly this. It isn't happening in isolation. This month's joint yen intervention was about stopping Japan from ever becoming a forced seller of Treasuries, and the new dollar swap lines across Asia and the Gulf keep the region's dollar debts rolling, with China the ultimate beneficiary. A weaker dollar is the tool that brings the big foreign buyers, Japan and eventually China, back to the long end. Supply managed on one side, demand rebuilt on the other. With a long end now potentially anchored, the steepening of the curve should come from Warsh, who will probably deliver his part of the grand bargain between the Fed and the Treasury. All of this is to fund the hyperscaler capex along with government debt. For the first time since the GFC both public and private debt as a % of GDP are growing and both are vital. This is the everything code fully at play and brings together many threads I've been talking about for the last two years. The debt must be serviced and liquidity, by whichever mechanism they can route it, is the method. Financial conditions started easing through both legs at once today, and financial conditions are the first domino in the sequence we have been mapping all year. To be warned this is not an instant liquidity flood happening right now. This is the entire scaffolding being set up for the much larger game. The Great Game is the funding of the aging population along with the funding of the new demographic of AI and robots. Both games are too big and too important to stop. The funding of the the intelligence build out is the most important game of all time. It is too big to fail. The full Flash Update is coming for GMI and RV Pro members came out earlier today: the full mechanism, the 2011 and 1940s precedents, what it likely means for every asset class, and what would prove the thesis wrong. Overall today was a big marker point on a story that I've been predicting for many years and have the receipts to prove it. The outcome is always MOAR COWBELL!

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expanding long-dated Treasury buybacks after signaling a possible reduction in long-term bond issuance, seeking to ease U.S. borrowing costs. The Treasury said it would at least double repurchases of 10- to 30-year bonds. On the announcement, 10-year yields fell about 6 basis points and 30-year yields nearly 9 basis points. Why it matters: Japan holds about $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. U.S. participation in yen intervention could reduce pressure on Japan to sell Treasuries to fund currency purchases. Read the full article: https://t.co/Nf9RPhHz5K