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Preface The latest data from CME FedWatch shows that market traders have raised the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's October FOMC meeting to 55%, crossing the critical threshold between bullish and bearish sentiment. Many traders simply treat this figure as a straightforward bearish signal, but the change in rate expectations essentially represents a global repricing of US dollar liquidity. At the September policy meeting, the Federal Reserve completed its first rate hike since July 2023, raising the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 officials believe another rate hike will be needed within 2026. Sticky inflation, resilient US consumer spending, and energy disruptions caused by geopolitical factors have turned the October meeting from a "high probability of no change" into a critical window with a substantial possibility of a rate hike. The Fed's rate hike is not merely an economic adjustment; it will trigger a wave of US dollar tides, impacting all highly elastic risk assets globally. Within the crypto market, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ZEC each have completely different asset characteristics, so their market reactions will show clear differentiation amid this rising rate hike expectation. 1. Underlying Principle: Real Interest Rate, the Pricing Anchor for Crypto Assets The fundamental pricing benchmark for all major asset classes is the real yield, which is the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations. When the market prices in a higher probability of rate hikes, nominal yields on US Treasuries rise, and real interest rates increase accordingly: the risk-free returns on holding US Treasuries and US dollar cash improve, prompting capital to actively move away from high-risk