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I still hold spot US stocks right now. What will happen next? Check this news A heads-up: This decline has the characteristics of a long-term turning point. Whether this is confirmed depends on whether the subsequent rebound can break previous highs. Let's start with the conclusion: When the market weakens, the worst trading option is not to immediately cut losses in a downtrend, but to wait for a rebound. But the nature of a rebound—reversal or bullish inducement—can only be verified in one way. First, let's explain why this decline is different from previous ones. On July 1, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.27% in a single day, and on July 2, it dropped another 5.44%, with a cumulative decline of over 11% over two days. The trigger was Meta's announcement to lease idle AI computing power externally, directly shaking the core narrative of "permanent scarcity of computing power." By mid-July, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had retraced nearly 19% from its June high, just one step away from a technical bear market. Marvell fell nearly 40% from its peak, while Kioxia was cut in half. This decline and breadth are not ordinary pullbacks. The logic of funding has indeed changed. Previously, after a high-level pullback of three or four points, or even seven or eight points, a rapid rebound was normal crowded trading volatility. But with a two-day -11% drop and a leading stock halved, the time and energy needed for recovery are completely different. So, after a sharp drop, what conditions can one expect to be bullish again? There is only one standard: The rebound must effectively break through previous highs. Before breaking the previous high, all rebounds are treated by default as long as lure is used. Does Fei Ban still have a chance? The answer is not absolute yes or no. Afterwards, it will hold and break through previous highs and continue dancing; If you can't reach it, now is the peak. Do not enter before a breakout is confirmed. That spot is a trap. Now, let's talk about the timing of the exit. Use gold trends as a reference—note, this is a pattern reference, not a prediction. At the end of January, COMEX hit a historic high of $5,626, then dropped to $4,090, a pullback of over 20% from the high. After the US-Iran ceasefire in June, gold rebounded above $4,300. This rebound formed a high point called the escape top. But there is a key distinction that must be made clear: The gold round was based on interest rate logic—oil prices → inflation→ rate hike expectations→ real interest rates rising. This round of the Philadelphia Semiconductor is a mix of chip and valuation logic—AI CAPEX narrative shakes + funds withdraw from crowded trading. The two drive mechanisms are completely different. A candlestick image does not necessarily mean the subsequent path will be copied. Therefore, gold's price movements are only used as a reference for patterns and do not serve a predictive function. If the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers and rebounds, where is the key window to watch? There is a key point worth noting: Anthropic secretly filed its S-1 filing in June this year, with underwriters scheduling investor meetings and a possible listing as early as October 2026. OpenAI also secretly submitted an IPO application, aiming for a valuation of one trillion dollars, but Wall Street generally believes it will be postponed to the first half of 2027. If we follow the path of gold, Anthropic's October IPO will be a window to watch. If a rebound peak occurs at that time, it should be regarded as a phased exit opportunity. But pay attention to two points: First, whether an IPO can serve as a top escape is itself a probability event, depending on the market environment, valuation acceptance, and whether secondary funds are willing to take over. The correlation between the two events is far less high. Second, if the rebound fails to break previous highs, there is a high probability of a second bottoming out. How much is the magnitude? Don't preset numbers. Q3/Q4 CAPEX guidance, AI downstream demand verification, and the fundamentals of individual stocks in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—these are the variables that determine the depth of the second bottom. And there's one thing that's different from gold: The fundamentals of AI have not collapsed. Anthropic's ARR is expected to soar from 9 billion at the end of 2025 to 47 billion by May 2026, with Q2 expected to be profitable for the first quarter. As long as downstream AI demand remains, Feizhou Semiconductor Index will have a fundamental anchor. Declines are acceptable, but don't generalize linearly into a crash. Looking at it now, there are only two scenarios: Scenario 1: The Feizhou Semiconductor Index rebounds to break previous highs. Keep playing, keep dancing, the bubble will last longer. Buy the moment of confirmation of the breakout—note, it may be pushed down by a double top. All other points are inviting bullish positions. Scenario 2: The rebound can't reach previous highs, so it follows the path of gold. The rebound peaks around Anthropic's IPO are the phased exit windows with the smallest relative losses. One more thing: Nasdaq and Philadelphia are doing splits. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 19%, while the Dow hit a new high of 52,900 points over the same period. Capital is flowing from the chip sector to finance and retail. Big Tech has visible cash flow to support it, while the chip hardware chain is cutting down valuations. QQQ/Nasdaq may continue to hold out as AI giants go public in the aftermath, but Philadelphia Semiconductor and chip equipment are another story. Breaking previous highs = Continue holding. Rebound without previous highs = phased out. The two forks are left to the market to choose, and you just need to prepare a response plan. $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX