What are traders who are short Bitcoin near new highs thinking?
Written by: Rhythm Driven
by regulatory breakthroughs, structural capital entry and renewed market confidence, Bitcoin is once again approaching all-time highs. With the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" advancing to the final vote of the Senate, a channel for hundreds of billions of funds to flow into the crypto market is about to be opened, and the SEC in the United States has also launched a new round of crypto rules drafting, releasing an unprecedented policy-friendly signal.
At the same time, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin's illiquid supply is at a record high, and chips are steadily migrating from short-term speculators to long-term holders. Spot ETFs continue to attract gold, and funding rates run at low levels, suggesting that this round of rally is not overheated, but driven by institutional buying and structural tightening.
Bitcoin is moving away from the speculative logic of its early days and entering a new cycle that is more mature, stable, and capital-led. At a time when market sentiment is still restrained, volatility has not yet expanded, and traders and institutions have different judgments on new highs, BlockBeats has compiled it for readers' reference.
Traders' analysis
positions do not break new highs, and the price breaks first = healthy rise?
@CryptoPainter_X
BTC's current holdings are finally close to the all-time high!
From the previous position of $69.568 billion when the price broke new highs, there is still $2.9 billion of room for improvement;
The current price is only $2,000 away from breaking a new high, so even if it is completely pulled by futures, it will not necessarily lead to an increase in positions of $2.9 billion, that is, it is difficult to form a divergence between positions and prices;
If there is a pullback in the price, and after the correction the position begins to gradually increase or even exceed the all-time high, then there is a possibility of a position divergence, which is a large structural bull divergence, which occurred at the end of 2021.
So the current logic is very simple, the price broke a new high before the position broke the new high, which means that the market is still not over-FOMO, which is very healthy!
Before the price breaks a new high, the position breaks a new high, which means that the speculative sentiment is too strong, and the market will easily come to kill the position.