diaMONd hand π
+40% profit from Coinbase's 1st presale.
@monad still has great potential.
want to see better performance in the future.
hey @waleswoosh, will we still have ico, ido szn?
ask my friend.

Is Monad "overvalued" by the community?
the community bought the public sale on @coinbase at fdv β $2.5B.
pre-market is reflecting fdv β $3.5B.
β profit +40% before tge, despite the general market being very bad.
@monad's position compared to other L1s on tge β
β’ Aptos: β $9B
β’ Sui: β $9.4B
β’ Plasma: β $8.7B
β’ Berachain: β $5.9B
β’ Story Protocol: β $1.95B
if ranked by fdv, @monad is in the upper middle.
not too cheap, but not touching the overhype group either.
circulating supply is the variable that completely changes the picture.
β @monad only opened circulation of 10.8B $MON out of a total of 100B
β circulating rate β 10.8% at tge
this puts Monad in the low float group, similar to many large L1s that have tge before:
β’ Aptos β 13%
β’ Sui β 5.2%
β’ Plasma β 18%
β’ Berachain β 5%
Monad is in a reasonable circulation zone.
not too high to cause selling pressure, but not too low to the point of "virtual fdv".
using pre-market price $0.035 to estimate:
β mcap on the first day β 10.8B Γ $0.035 β $378M mcap
this number is SIGNIFICANTLY lower than large L1 groups like Aptos or Sui.
fdv β $3.5B is big in the crash market?
objective assessment:
(1) compared to Aptos, Sui, Plasma: Monad's FDV is still much lower
(2) with a float of 10.8%: this is a reasonable structure
(3) with an mcap of about $378M: Monad is being placed in the "mid cap L1" zone instead of "mega cap L1"
(4) with negative sentiment: the fact that the pre-market still holds a FDV of $3.5B shows that the cash flow is still expecting Monad's technological performance
(5) public-sale is making a profit of about 40% despite the market decline β bid-side signal is still good
summary
fdv $3.5B looks not small at first glance, but with a float of only 10.8%, this valuation is in a reasonable range for a high-performance L1 preparing for mainnet.
mcap of actual trading on the first day is expected to be around $378M β much lower than the previously listed L1.
this opens up space for strong price movements depending on the cash flow on the TGE day.
if the ecosystem attracts devs, users and stable staking, the current fdv level can completely maintain or expand.
looking forward to @keoneHD and @monad team.



why did I decide not to jeet $MON early?
(just my subjective opinion)
- Coinbase's 1st ICO project, it would be bad if it went below the selling price
- huge selling pressure from airdrop in the first few hours of listing, the team needs time to support the price
- i believe in monad's potential ecosystem
- mcap is only about $300M (although I know their fdv is about $2.5B) but I still want to bet
gMonad π
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