有关黑天鹅的事情我以前说过很多次。 马云跟你玩梭哈,你把把拿AA。这肯定有90%的胜率。 赔率是2,那根据凯乐公式,下注86%资金就是最大ev。如果你怕波动,可以只下注40%,如果你胆小如鼠,也应该下注10%-20%的资金,这是明显的送钱机会。 在币圈大量穿仓,极速下跌的时候,大量adl订单出现后,抄底胜率近乎100%,一定有大反弹。 而跌的越多,胜率也越高,赔率也越大。所以应该下注的仓位也越大。如果你实在没经验,可以分批,可以1分钟买5%资金,最多只买30%。 最后说一句,我在币圈仓位占比最大的时候都是黑天鹅的时候,因为我觉得这时候是胜率最大,赔率最大的时候,如果你不猛猛下注,只能说你不相信数学。 不敢下注,只有恐惧,相信科学,自然会疯狂下注。(当然,最好不加杠杆)
这里拿luna举例的话,我建议你再读读文章,先不说luna当时没有穿仓,即便你不懂luna的机制,我的文章也说了,只买30%(因为你不懂,懂的话只有做空一个按钮)
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