“Futarchy is the future.” — @aeyakovenko
Let’s talk about what he means, why futarchy matters for crypto governance, and how some interesting Solana projects are actually building it on-chain.
Mega thread 👇🏻
1/ What is futarchy?
An idea by economist Robin Hanson:
“Vote on values, bet on beliefs.”
You vote on what metric the DAO should maximize (token price, TVL, etc.)
Then you bet on which proposal will best achieve it.
Markets, not votes, decide.
2/ Each proposal creates two prediction markets:
• One conditional on the proposal passing
• One conditional on it failing
If the “pass” market predicts a higher outcome for the chosen metric, it executes.
If “fail” does, status quo stays.
Governance by market consensus.
3/ Why this matters:
Markets aggregate information better than token votes.
People have skin in the game—bad predictions lose money.
It forces decisions based on expected outcomes, not vibes or politics.
4/ Challenges:
• Defining measurable success (token price ≠ everything)
• Liquidity and participation
• Complexity (conditional tokens, oracles, settlement)
• Not all decisions are quantifiable
Still, futarchy remains one of crypto’s most radical governance ideas.
5/ The roots: prediction markets like @Polymarket.
They’re not futarchy, but they paved the way.
They show how markets can aggregate beliefs and settle disputes transparently.
Polymarket data:
• 11,000+ markets resolved
• 171k wallets used
• ~13% profitable traders
6/ Enter @MetaDAOProject / $META; the leading futarchy experiment on Solana.
It brings the concept on-chain, letting DAOs literally trade decisions.
7/ How MetaDAO works:
• Define a metric (e.g. maximize META token value)
• Open “PASS” and “FAIL” markets for each proposal
• Traders deposit USDC or META to bet
• After a set window, a TWAP compares both markets
• The winning branch executes on-chain automatically
8/ MetaDAO by the numbers (Q4 2025):
• Total raised: ~$20M
• Total volume traded (platform): ~$4.2M
• Unique traders: ~2,800
• Proposals created: 97
• Treasury balances reported: ~$2.4M
10/ It’s not flawless.
Some markets faced manipulation attempts (up to $250K), but traders countered them successfully.
MetaDAO’s founders say the model just needs one “killer win” to go mainstream; a proof that markets beat token votes.
11/ Next step: futarchy inside DeFi itself.
That’s what @omnipair /$OMFG is doing on Solana.
12/ Omnipair merges spot trading, lending, and leverage—and governs via futarchy.
• Futarchy proposals: anyone can bet USDC on protocol parameters (risk limits, rates, etc.)
• Token governance: OMFG holders oversee big-picture rules
Hybrid markets + oversight.
13/ Why this matters:
DeFi decisions already have measurable outcomes.
If parameters can be optimized via markets, protocols could self-tune in real time.
Imagine Compound or Aave letting markets pick collateral factors.
14/ Why Solana?
Futarchy needs fast, cheap markets and high throughput.
Solana’s low fees make it viable to open many decision markets simultaneously. +hate it or love it; solana devs love innovations and now foundation seem to be willing to push solana beyond a 'meme chain'.
15/
Key takeaways:
• Futarchy = bet on outcomes, not opinions
• MetaDAO: leading futarchy dao
• Omnipair: DeFi + futarchy hybrid
• Polymarket proves the infrastructure works
• Solana enables the experimentation
• Markets may replace voting as the core of DAO governance
16/ TL;DR
Futarchy is governance by markets.
MetaDAO runs DAOs this way.
Omnipair runs DeFi this way.
Polymarket shows it can scale.
Solana makes it possible.
The experiments are young, but the idea is alive.
“Futarchy is the future.” — @aeyakovenko
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