some key milestones:
1988 – Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM): Academic, real-money micro stakes — first structured prediction markets.
2000 – Betfair Exchange: Retail betting exchange; user-to-user liquidity.
2001 – Intrade: Early online prediction exchange for politics & finance.
2012 – Hypermind: Corporate/government forecasting markets.
2014 – PredictIt: U.S.-based political markets under CFTC no-action.
2015 – Metaculus: Community forecasting with points instead of money.
2018 – Augur (Ethereum): On-chain prediction market using REP token.
2020 – Polymarket (Polygon → Arbitrum): On-chain CLOB + stablecoin settlement; leading decentralized PM.
2020 – Omen (Gnosis): Conditional markets using DAO infrastructure.
2021 – Manifold Markets: Play-money & creator-led markets for crowd insight.
2022 – Zeitgeist (Polkadot): Parachain-native prediction markets.
2022 – Kalshi (CFTC-Regulated): Real-money event contracts in the U.S.
2025 – Hyperliquid HIP-3/4: Infrastructure for builder-deployed, permissionless markets (“event perps”).
future state (2025-2030):
> event perps on high-throughput chains; cross-venue aggregators; sentiment overlays; social prediction indices.
> futarchy pilots (governance via markets); on-chain indices; crypto-native ETFs; DAO decision-making via market signals.
> structured predictions (baskets/spreads); under-collateralized lending vs PM positions; tax tooling for active traders.
> municipal/corporate futarchy pilots; insurance + reinsurance markets; standardized oracles & dispute layers.
> integration with retail brokerages; unified identity/KYC; global market taxonomy; embedded markets in apps.
> prediction index funds in traditional wrappers; cross-margining with perps/options; mainstream use as risk-hedging and information assets.
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