How the market maker manipulates and harvests retail investors: A full process exposure "Collector's Edition Dry Goods"
Analysis → Building positions → Testing the market → Consolidation → Initial rise → Shaking out → Pulling up → Distributing → Rebounding → Dumping → Cycle repeats...
1️⃣ Preparation Stage
Before the market maker intervenes in a certain cryptocurrency target, they will comprehensively collect all aspects of the project's information, including the total amount of tokens, unlocking status for precise statistics, the cost of investors at all levels, the dispersion of tokens, and community heat evaluation, etc.
After collecting the information, they will set a target for pulling up the price based on the scale of funds they can mobilize. (Ignore self-issued tokens like altcoins)
2️⃣ Building Positions Stage
Before building positions, the market maker will conduct various investigations and research, covering market sentiment, the overall trend of BTC in the crypto market, macro and policy risks, etc.
Usually, the market maker will choose to enter when the market is generally pessimistic, market sentiment is generally low, retail investors' confidence is frustrated, and they hold a pessimistic attitude towards the prospects of the cryptocurrency. Building positions is just as the saying goes, "When retail investors are fearful, the market maker is greedy."
Depending on the strength of the market maker, their position ratio also varies. Short-term market makers can control 10% - 30% of the tokens to manipulate the market, while long-term market makers often need to control more than 40% of the tokens. Of course, this mainly depends on the strength of the market maker. Generally, market makers will not build positions at high levels.
㊙️ The main methods of building positions by market makers are as follows:
🔶 Absorbing on bad news: Taking advantage of negative news in the crypto market, such as project technical failures, rumors of stricter regulations, etc., to suppress the price, causing panic selling, and thus absorbing tokens at low prices.
🔶 Bear trap: Creating a false impression of a price decline through technical means, inducing retail investors to sell, while the market maker buys at low prices to complete the layout of building positions.
🔶 Bulk buying: Concentrating funds to buy a large amount of the target cryptocurrency in a short period, increasing trading volume, attracting follow-up buying, and secretly collecting tokens.
🔶 Stockpiling on rebounds: Gradually buying during the rebound phase after a price drop, using some investors' mentality of breaking even or taking profits to expand their positions.
🔶 Laying in wait for new projects: When there are expectations of major technical upgrades, new application scenarios landing, or strategic cooperation related to the target cryptocurrency, they lay out positions in advance.
3️⃣ Testing the Market Stage
In this stage, the market maker slightly raises or suppresses the price to observe market buying and selling behavior, trading volume, order situation, and emotional fluctuations, understanding the degree of token locking, the strength of follow-up buying, resistance and support levels, and other key information, providing a basis for fine-tuning subsequent manipulation strategies.
However, testing the market is not a mandatory option. Some market makers, relying on keen market intuition and rich experience, may directly start pulling up or take other actions, and the timing of testing the market is flexible, which can be carried out appropriately throughout the entire process of manipulation.
4️⃣ Consolidation Stage
Consolidation is to optimize the token structure and accumulate upward energy, which can be subdivided into low, middle, and high-level consolidation based on the price position. The price trend is mostly alternating between rising, falling, and consolidating, with consolidation taking up a lot of time. In this stage, price fluctuations are gentle and direction is unclear, testing investors' patience. The market maker uses this to consolidate holding costs, clean up floating tokens, and wait for the opportunity to pull up. This stage often tests the patience of retail investors the most because its trend is quite annoying.
5️⃣ Initial Rise Stage
After completing the early layout, the market maker starts the initial rise trend, moderately raising the price to attract market attention, stimulate the enthusiasm of external funds to enter, and reduce the resistance to subsequent pulling up. But to avoid exposing intentions too early, causing follow-up buying and regulatory attention, the initial rise is limited, and then the price will slightly fall back to clean up profit-taking and unstable tokens, laying a solid foundation for subsequent stable pulling up.
6️⃣ Shaking Out Stage
After accumulating a certain amount of tokens, the market maker will adopt a strategy of suppressing the price to drive away follow-up buying and force early holders to sell. This not only allows them to absorb more tokens at low prices, reducing holding costs, but also eliminates weak-willed retail investors, reducing the pressure of selling during subsequent pulling up, creating conditions for high-price distribution.
7️⃣ Pulling Up Stage
After a series of operations such as absorbing tokens, testing the market, and shaking out, the long and short sides have reached a high degree of unity to a certain extent. After the market maker controls a large number of tokens and stabilizes the market situation, the price rise becomes a natural result. In the pulling up stage, the price rises rapidly, and the market maker cleverly uses market heat, technical indicators, favorable news, and other factors to attract more investors to follow up and buy, pushing the price to new highs and achieving substantial profits.
8️⃣ Distributing Stage
As the saying goes, "Knowing how to buy is the apprentice, knowing how to sell is the master," distribution is the key goal of the market maker's manipulation. Successfully distributing tokens is the only way to convert paper profits into actual gains. Distribution is the most critical stage in the manipulation process because any market maker can only convert paper profits into actual gains by successfully distributing tokens.
To this end, the market maker will use all means, such as creating a false impression of market prosperity, using media opinion to guide emotions, using related accounts to create a lively atmosphere through fake transactions, etc., to induce uninformed retail investors to take over, ensuring smooth distribution.
9️⃣ Rebounding Stage
After the price drops, there is often a short-term rise, which is the rebounding stage. When the market maker's distribution causes the price to fall near the profit line, due to some retail investors' "bottom-fishing" mentality and their own remaining token distribution needs, they will slightly raise the price to create a rebound trend.
However, this is mostly a flash in the pan. After the rebound ends, the price is likely to continue to fall, or even hit new lows. If investors rashly "bottom-fish," they are likely to fall into a trap, and the rebounding stage is a secondary stage in the manipulation process, with some targets not having a rebound process.
🔟 Dumping Stage
🔶 Passive selling: Encountering sudden negative news, such as major technical loopholes, project disputes, sudden changes in regulatory policies, etc., causing a wave of panic selling in the market, the market maker may be forced to dump to reduce losses. This behavior may lead the market maker to abandon the manipulation and leave the market, or after dumping, find an opportunity to absorb tokens at low prices and control the market again.
🔶 High-level selling followed by dumping: After successfully distributing at high levels and locking in profits, the remaining small amount of tokens is no longer significant. At this time, dumping can suppress the price and also lay out for low-price absorption in the future, without worrying about market image and costs.
🔶 Dumping for a new trend: After a round of speculation ends, the market maker, for the next round of low-cost absorption, will deliberately dump using the remaining tokens, creating a bearish atmosphere, inducing investors to sell, while testing the market bottom and investor psychology, laying the groundwork for the start of a new trend. Starting a new harvesting cycle.
No matter what type of market maker, they always rely on the three stages of building positions, pulling up, and distributing. This is the most basic "trilogy" of market maker manipulation.
Think more from the perspective of the main force, understand the main force's manipulation intentions, and you can follow the steps to eat meat and drink soup together!
The crypto world is always repeating yesterday's story.
The speculation sectors are changing, prices are changing, and the people buying and selling are changing, but human nature has not changed.
Let's encourage each other!
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