1/ Desk note: Liquidation heat‑maps flag a final sweep down to ~101.5 k. Below that, there’s virtually no significant remaining downside fuel unless to 95k. 2/ Logic check: longs sit higher, few fresh longs sit lower. Clear the lower pond and price mechanics flip ‑‑ the market will hunt upper liquidity → fresh highs. 3/ Weekly view: 2.59 M BTC worth of liquidation clusters lie above spot — an unprecedented payload if ignited. 4/ Open Interest just printed an all‑time high. A violent move is brewing, but the last two similar set‑ups fizzled… risk management stays first. 5/ Stable‑coin float is up YoY while total crypto cap lags. Roughly 20 % of “missing” value is tied up in battered alts; DeFi TVL hasn’t followed suit. 6/ Read‑through: those new stables likely fund basis trades — shorting BTC perps vs spot/ETF baskets. ETFs can’t be shorted directly, CME basis is tight, but CEX ↔ ETF spreads still pay. 7/ If that basis crowd levers up and BTC rips, shorts flip to forced buyers — magnifying any squeeze. Remember: institutions move price; we just map their footprints. 8/ TL;DR One more dip → explosive squeeze to ATHs? Keep dry powder, watch the heat‑maps, stay skeptical. Not financial advice.
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