"Paint the town red" yet again in insurance, not a shocker. There's been a major headwind from $BRK and $PGR coming back to life, but honestly, who TF cares? A lot of people crowded into them as infallible "giants", with both down roughly 14% over the past 8 weeks there's been pressure everywhere. Still, even with global pricing cooling off I think the smaller, localized players will be able to run circles around the larger guys. For example, $KINS with its Long Island niche, and also a tailwind from taking over Amguards policies as yet another insurer bails from the region. $IGIC of course, as they dance around from line to line getting "busy" in areas with a much more improved risk to reward (like California reinsurance), US E&S, and also given their lower expense structure. $ACT is just cheap, a buyback cannibal since Genworth owns 80% and has huge NOLs and wants to monetize their stake, so they keep selling shares back to Enact who is happy to buy them with no price impact. $CRE is London is interesting. It's essentially a less dumb version of Fidelis (who has massive related party issues in my opinion since they just do the bidding of their MGA partner). Trading at a 20% discount to book and buying back shares, new leadership, everyone hates it but I think sentiment probably couldn't be worse. I also like $JXN, the capital management there is excellent and the investment portfolio is much more clean than $BHF, at roughly 4.5x earnings and a massive payout ratio and steady dividend hike it has all the markings of "a company who is doing everything right but people still hate it". I think "small quality / small outperformer" is a theme that will work well over the next 12 months in insurance. The outperformers should run circles around the larger guys who are largely at the whim of overall pricing. I also prefer insurers with lower rate investment portfolios, if that makes any sense. Glass half full vs glass half empty, Fairfax has excellent capital management and a great investment portfolio, there's no denying that. But the smaller guys with previously bad portfolios like $KINS or $HRTG, or even guys like $IGIC who just keep a bunch of a cash and less than 2.5% equities, they have significant room for improvement by going risk on. I think it's way easier to "juice" investment returns than improve underwriting.
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