$CRWV trades at 7.6x ‘26 revs growing at 129%
$IREN trades at 2.6x ‘26 revs growing at 78% (which is before any deals)
$APLD trades at 10.3x ‘26 revs growing at 3% (after their CRWV deal with bad back-end economics)
At 5x, IREN should trade at $20/share now
At 7.6x, IREN trades at $30/share
After a deal, IREN trades at $41/share
With better economics than APLD-CRWV deal, IREN trades at $56/share
Disclaimer, all these out year consensus revenue numbers are likely understated to a greater or lesser extent per company which is where your assumptions kick in
Currently, $IREN is doing 14% of the TTM revs as $CRWV
In ‘26, consensus estimates are that $IREN is going to be doing 7.5% of the revs of CRWV. Does that seem realistic?
CRWV is going to grow its revs from $2.7B/yr to $11.6B per year and a big chunk of that growth is not going to drop to IREN and others with whom CRWV is going to have to partner?
If IREN does 14% of CRWV’s ‘26 revs, its optimistic post-deal stock price target goes to $104/share
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