The "Crypto Week" bill was stuck, but ETH soared 12% to break through $3,400

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina).

Author | Ethan（@ethanzhang_web3）

What was supposed to be a week to boost confidence in the industry has now been repeatedly added to the "uncertainty" due to repeated legislation.

On July 16, Beijing time, Trump announced on social platforms that he had met with 11 key members of the House of Representatives and received support for pushing the "GENIUS Act" into a formal vote.

In the early morning of July 17, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a procedural vote of 217 to 212, formalizing the process of three encryption bills, including "GENIUS", "CLARITY" and "Anti-CBDC". Although this vote is not the final passage of the bill, it means that the legislation has entered the final hurdle, and the stablecoin bill will enter the final vote as soon as this Thursday.

This "crypto week" is moving from anxious waiting to reality, and the market is quietly strengthening on the other side.

• According to the real-time market of OKX, ETH broke through the $3,400 mark strongly this morning, reaching as high as $3,428, with a 24-hour maximum increase of 11.91%, and as of press time, it fell back to 3,380 USDT; BTC is relatively calm, with its highest point hovering at $120,000, with a 24-hour highest increase of only 3.14%, and its current price is 118,740 USDT.

• Other copycat markets also saw a general rise this morning, with BONK up 21.2% in 24 hours and now trading at 0.000037854 USDT; CRV rose as much as 13.31% in 24 hours, and is now trading at 0.9226 USDT; JUP up up 9.56% in 24 hours, now trading at 0.53 USDT; BOME has a 24-hour maximum increase of 18.43%, and is now trading at 0.002113 USDT; SOL rose as much as 6.55% in 24 hours and is now trading at 170.81 USDT.

• As the U.S. House of Representatives passed a procedural vote on cryptocurrency-related bills, crypto stocks rose, including: Coinbase (COIN) rose 4.21% to $404.26; Circle (CRCL) rose more than 22% and is now trading at $238.58; Strategy (MSTR) rose 2.29% to 452.42%; Mara Holdings (MARA) rose 5.17% and is now trading at $19.73.

• In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $469 million, of which $172 million has been liquidated by long orders and $297 million by short orders. In terms of currencies, BTC liquidated $73.9924 million and ETH liquidated $193 million.

The rise of ETH is not a single burst, but the result of structural funds. On-chain data shows that in the past 48 hours, a number of institutions and large addresses have completed a "silent sucking" of ETH.

Take profit and bottom-buying are staggered, and the main force on the chain splits and starts a war

Trend Research's sharp reduction in holdings has undoubtedly become the focus of market attention.

According to Lookonchain data, it has sold a total of 69,946 ETH in the past 24 hours, with a cash amount of up to $218.3 million, and sold 21,000 ETH worth about $67 million in a single transaction last night alone. Despite this, the institution still holds more than 115,000 ETH with a book value of nearly $380 million.

But other forces are quietly taking over.

SharpLink Gaming today purchased an additional 10, 614 ETH worth about $35.62 million through its strategy account. Its total holdings have reached 296, 508, worth nearly $1 billion, making it one of the most aggressive ETH financial allocators on the chain.

Buyers and sellers are not opposites, but two ends of the game. The main force is divergence, and the market is pricing. ETH's rise is not a castle in the air, but a revaluation after a "chip swap".

Why is ETH rising sharply?

On the face of it, the delay should be bearish. However, the market did not go down, but showed signs of reflexive rise.

In an interview with CNBC, Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau noted that the passage of bills like GENIUS is a "matter of time," not a matter of "if." The adoption of the procedural vote has cleared the institutional hurdles to formal legislation.

But what is really driving ETH higher is the increasingly clear asset narrative behind it.

On the one hand, in May 2024, the SEC has approved the listing applications of a number of Ethereum spot ETFs, and officially began trading in July, marking ETH's official entry into the mainstream investment market in the United States after Bitcoin. The focus of the market has now shifted to the follow-up inflows, whether to support the staking function, and whether to allow the launch of related option products.

On the other hand, since the Ethereum Foundation started its structural reform at the beginning of the year, the acceptance of ETH in the traditional financial market has been increasing. Following the MicroStrategy effect, U.S.-listed companies such as SharpLink Gaming have also begun to include ETH on their balance sheets as long-term reserves.

In addition, ETH's central position in on-chain finance also makes it a natural "digital sovereign asset" to resist liquidity crunch and dollar volatility. In short, ETH is no longer a "crypto platform coin", but is slowly becoming an "on-chain version of the treasury".

Market outlook: the triple game of legislation, interest rate cuts and the "cottage season".

The breakthrough of ETH may just be the beginning of this new cycle.

The FOMC meetings on July 22 and July 30 are seen as key windows for this round of macro game. Once the Fed signals a rate cut, the crypto market will usher in a second layer of liquidity drive.

In terms of legislation, the U.S. House of Representatives has today pushed three key encryption bills, GENIUS, CLARITY and Anti-CBDC, into the final voting stage. The stablecoin bill is expected to be voted on as soon as Thursday, and if passed, it will be sent to the president for signature. Even if the final vote count is uncertain, the mere process of entering the voting process itself has boosted market risk appetite.

What's more, ETH's strength is also reigniting expectations for a "copycat season".

On-chain data shows that emerging public chain tokens such as SUI and HBAR have risen by more than 12% in 24 hours, and mainstream copycats such as SOL, AVAX, LTC, DOGE have turned red at the same time. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes posted yesterday that "the ether season has arrived" and predicted that ETH will outperform BTC, and the DeFi and NFT sectors will also usher in a recovery. He even changed his social platform avatar to CryptoPunk as a sign of confidence.

Conclusion: FOMO sentiment hasn't really crept in yet

From Trump's personal pressure to push forward the bill, to ETH's strong breakthrough of 3400, to the steady establishment of positions by on-chain institutions, the script of this "crypto week" seems to be being rewritten.

However, the broader market has not fully resonated at this moment, with BTC trading sideways and altcoins diverging, and FOMO sentiment has not really spread. Perhaps, this is the moment for the calm, and the next time you hear the audience shouting "copycat take-off", ETH may have already flown ahead.