Giver says it better than I can make an effort to
But the Ethereum treasury vehicles by and large are not levered
There is no big unwind waiting to happen (for the time being)
I say this as someone who was speaking nearly every day with Kevin at some point on LUNA falling, and works in distressed
Zero. That is the chance you get an “unwind.” These vehicles can run to 0.1x mNAV and there is nothing shareholders can do anything about it. At a significant enough discount a competing business can offer to buy the treasury out. In fact the very LPs that contributed to the PIPE may do that. You could get a big sell off in the actual equities themselves. But that contagion doesn’t necessarily spread to the underlying assets bc there is no forced estate sale from a liability management POV.
The more realistic scenario is that these vehicles just stop doing anything, and equity is held captive like a GBTC situation
If you are hoping for a contagion style blow up in the underlying reserve asset - you will likely be waiting a while. SBET has been below 1.0x NAV for under a month now. You would think they would stop pressing the ATM then right to maintain equity value? WRONG. They continue to press
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