Plan remains the same, ETH long gets doubled if BTC goes to 100K in September and so do the calls.
Everyone talks bullish Q4 but how do you even play it?
Here is my Q4 roadmap 🫡NFA
Most will LOSE money in Q4 but I have a recipe that will offer MASSIVE reward if the trajectory of Q4 is up for majors.
This methodology comes with a few different ideas so lets go over them first
1. Peak/Top is in January 1st
2. We achieve a sustained move with green months in October, November, and December
3. ETH continues to outperform BTC
1st prong: Stacking majors on low leverage or no leverage
Boring? Maybe.
If you believe ETH is going to 7K by December (I do) then you have 70%+ upside by simply holding ETH for 3 months and doing nothing. This is my base portfolio layer as I still feel ETH will outperform BTC in Q4.
I have a 1X lev long position open on ETH and instead of trading it back and forth I am leaving it untouched.
-10-20% crashes are for adding to this position.
2nd prong: OTM ETH Call options for max convexity
On the last dip I used 8% of our account to buy OTM call options with december expiries for $ETH. I did this for convexity if things get nutty and we full send Q4 anything above 6K+ on these will give exponential returns. If we get a -10-20% ETH drawdown in September I will increase the position, I have half of the desired size on now.
If ETH does nothing and stays at $5K until December these expire worthless, but if ETH goes to $7K we'll be looking at over 3X on returns with things getting really crazy around $7.5K+
This prong is one that can not be liquidated, it is a bet on price and time and seasonality. My thesis is simple that Q4 will be up as it usually is in bull markets, that the bull run is not over, and that seasonality will pull through and $ETH will continue to be the leader with ETF flows and DATs.
Sometimes you have a thesis but the real wealth is made in finding the best vehicle to execute the thesis if you're right. In this instance I have a time based idea, asset, expected gain (price), so options is the best vehicle to express this thesis.
3rd prong:
Narrative trades - CEX and on chain
This is the dog shit that we don't hold.
This is the stuff that comes out with a narrative or a new thing or a catalyst or what ever and it's the things we flip for more USD.
This one doesn't really need to be explained but look back on anything really like AI coins back a year ago.
Stuff ran to 500M-1B and then got dusted to zero. Great to trade, bad to hold. Remember $GOAT ? Yeah me neither.
Even recent narratives like $LINK $ENA $WLFI I would put in this basket. Great to trade, good to flip, take the USD.
What do you do with these gains?
I'll be looking for flushes on ETH in the next few months moves of -10% to take this USD and smash into more $ETH. This can be a way to increase the position size WITHOUT increasing the leverage over the next few months. This is a way to compound into a more "stable" position
4th prong:
As we get closer to December and what I would expect to be the end or a local top I will begin cutting positions for USD and finding stable farms.
Generally speaking I will try to be as safe as possible with this capital because if the bear market is starting in 2026 then stable farms can and will blow up.
Here I will be thinking $sUSDe etc.
So this strategy is a bet on seasonality and the cycle continuing, its a bet on $ETH and not allowing volatility to shake out the position (through options and low leverage), it's a bet on froth, and a bet on compounding gains through what I do best (narrative trading).
Thats it, that's how I think I win in Q4.
Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
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