The battle begins! The power of cycles is once again evident, with Ethereum (soon) and Bitcoin breaking historical highs today. Historically, after reaching new highs, altcoins tend to perform better; in fact, most people's memories are stuck in the altcoin season from January to May 2021, but they forget that many altcoins in 2020 also consolidated for over 200 days before exploding in the first half of 2021. Just like then, at this moment, as numb traders are immersed in a low atmosphere, taking habits for granted, will the market deliver a heavy blow?
Soros' reflexivity is one of my favorite theories. On April 4, I called for a long position on Twitter, coinciding with the bottom of Bitcoin's quarterly cycle, and then I saw the VIX panic index soar to 60 (a rare occurrence in years), which deepened my judgment.
The future market is actually also easy to navigate. Considering the current situation in the crypto space and some common sense, some trade-offs need to be made: ① In a low liquidity market, buy strong, not weak; ② Initially buy leaders, where funds are first attracted; ③ Don’t think about crossing cycles; most assets will complete their harvest within a month; ④ Play value coins first, then meme coins.
Regarding the timing of entry, after Bitcoin and Ethereum break new highs, most altcoins are taking their first steps, quickly and slightly rising, such as ARB, UNI, and ZK. Some have already entered the second step, starting to build platforms like BIO. Overall, whether there is a significant and smooth trend, around the 20th can be considered a threshold. Therefore, from today until the 20th, a week’s time, if there is a flash crash in altcoins, enter and hold until the beginning of next month.
For those who haven’t entered, the next week will definitely give you an opportunity to get in. Assuming there is an altcoin rally → funds will flow out of Ethereum → Ethereum will flash crash → altcoins will spike, it’s a very simple logic.
Since I have a channel now, the frequency of my tweets has decreased, as feedback is more timely. I will try to communicate in the channel first, but it’s a bit scattered, and then use AI to summarize and post on Twitter.
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