The Fed Held Rates Again - What It Means for Altseasonđš
No cuts. No pivot. But donât panic. The real macro pivot could still be just around the corner.
Hereâs why Iâm staying patient and focused on September for altcoinsđ§”đ
1/x The July FOMC meeting was a non-event.
â No rate cut.
â No end to QT.
â No liquidity injection.
But none of this was surprising, markets had already priced it in. The real game begins in September.
2/x Why September? Thatâs when:
đč The next FOMC meeting happens.
đč The Fed may ease SLR rules for banks.
đč The Treasury may refill its TGA, draining liquidity.
đč Liquidity conditions could shift drastically.
Itâs the real pivot window Iâm watching.
3/x Until now, the US Treasury has been draining its TGA to fund operations.
That injected $500B+ into the market this year.
But now that the debt ceiling is raised, that trend is reversing. And it could suck liquidity out gradually over 4â5 months.
4/x What does that mean? Liquidity may fall from ~$29.5T to ~$29T.
đ Not a collapse.
đ Not a bear market trigger.
â
Just a slowdown.
Think of it as a healthy pullback before another liquidity leg up. But it slows down risk-on assets like altcoins.
5/x Thereâs one potential offset: SLR reform.
The Fed is considering easing the Supplementary Leverage Ratio for major banks, basically allowing them to buy more treasuries with less collateral.
More treasury demand = more liquidity.
Decision expected August 26.
6/x If approved, this could act as a liquidity booster right when itâs needed most.
It would perfectly coincide with the September FOMC.
So yes, TGA refill may slow things but SLR reform might reignite risk appetite, especially for alts.
7/x Now letâs talk #Bitcoin dominance.
BTC dominance dropped for 5 weeks but just hit support at the 50-week SMA (around 60.6%).
This level has stopped altcoin momentum every time since Trumpâs election.
8/x If $BTC dominance bounces here and breaks above 64.5%, altcoins are in trouble.
But if dominance rolls over and makes a lower low, that could open the floodgates for altseason.
It all lines up with the liquidity pivot window in September.
9/x Donât confuse an âaltcoin monthâ with a real altseason.
Weâve had brief rallies before. They always faded.
What you really want is an âaltcoin quarterâ or, better yet, an âaltcoin yearâ where 75%+ of top coins outperform $BTC for months.
Weâre not there yet.
10/x My current approach:
đč Focus on $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, $BNB.
đč Let bots compound in the background.
đč Stay out of microcaps.
đč Wait for confirmation, not hope
Altseason is a trend, not a moment. And that trend hasnât begun.
11/x If you feel FOMO right now, zoom out.
Even if you're 3 months late to the real altcoin year, you can still ride 9 months of upside. Thatâs how the 100x runs happened in 2021 not by being early, but by being positioned with patience.
Donât chase noise. Wait for confirmation. The signs Iâm watching:
â
BTC dominance breakdown.
â
Liquidity higher low.
â
September Fed pivot.
â
SLR easing.
â
Altcoin season index crossing and sustaining.
12/x Share this thread with someone whoâs feeling FOMO too early.
Weâre close but not there yet. Until then, accumulate, rotate, and chill đ§
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