some realpolitik thoughts re tia and the near future:
- next 6 months are likely make or break
- chance of success is probably equal to chance of failure
- but potential downside is much lower than potential upside, which means itās a no brainer asymmetric bet at this stage
- the polychain redistribution is a win no matter what you think of the team or the investorsā intentions as it has meaningfully lowered the potential downside (looking unemotionally at cost basis alone ā $1.5 is probably the floor, whereas before the news i was factoring in $1)
- there are very few liquid assets with such a glaring asymmetry at this stage
- as an investor you really want to be buying things when sentiment is at its lowest, and tia still ticks that box
- team is first rate and completely locked in
on my side, i bought more yesterday on the polychain news and am now fully invested (all the tia iāve bought has been through the public markets)
i will be doing everything i can over the next few months to increase the odds of success, including taking a mert like approach to all the fud iām seeing š¦£
I donāt normally talk price, but isnāt this buyback by the foundation a positive signal? After months of dumping by Polychain, thatās now going to stop. No more sell pressure.
Yet markets arenāt responding in the way we expect.
Iād love to hear othersā perspective on why. Iād love to hear from Celestiaās biggest critics @VannaCharmer @0xBalloonLover @mirza and more but I canāt think of their handles right now.
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