Brothers, don't rush to get off the bus; BTC still has a 20%-25% upside potential!
When the STH MVRV (Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value) of BTC approaches 1.35, meaning short-term holders have an unrealized profit of about 35%, the market tends to see significant profit-taking behavior, which usually leads to a short-term pullback.
Currently, the STH MVRV is only 1.15, so we are still far from that sensitive point.
This is mainly because on July 11, the realized price for short-term holders first broke the $100,000 mark, which is a first in Bitcoin's history. It has now even risen to over $102,000.
Therefore, BTC still has about a 20% to 25% upside potential before it reaches that critical MVRV level again.
✅ What is MVRV?
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is:
Current total market value of Bitcoin ÷ Realized value
Realized Value: The total value calculated using the "last transfer price" of each Bitcoin as the cost price.
✅ What can it tell us?
MVRV reflects the average unrealized profit or loss in the market.
MVRV > 1: Overall, people are making money.
MVRV < 1: Overall, people are losing money.
The higher the MVRV: The more people are making money, and the greater the risk of selling pressure and pullbacks.
The lower the MVRV: The more people are losing money, the price is undervalued, making it suitable for bottom fishing.
✅ Common threshold references:
Below 1.0: Market panic, possibly a bottom.
Around 1.3 - 1.5: Short-term funds have significant unrealized profits, caution is needed for pullbacks.
>3 or higher: Usually a bull market top area, extremely risky.
✅ STH MVRV
Specifically looks at the MVRV of short-term holders (STH), which can reflect short-term sentiment and potential selling pressure more quickly.
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