Kind of the valuation I expected.
Market make the launch price slightly above public sale to make it seem a succes but not high enough to make people sell.
(not a lot of people will sell for a 25% gain)
This makes it look like $PUMP is at a profit but valuation is NOT equal to liquidity.
Domino usually starts rolling once even a small amount of the investors start to sell.
I don't see the demand high enough to maintain this so it'll most likely slow bleed significantly after.
Remember:
It might seem like it launched well but no one is actually at a profit yet (price won't keep up once people will start to convert to stables. Then the race to be first begins)
Market making on tge is a common practice but can't ever keep up after.
I'll be happy to say I was wrong (and be surprised) in a few months from now but I think we'll likely be looking at a way lower valuation by then.
I personally think they will actually artificially inflate the launch price to make it seem like a huge success (market making).
It will likely not launch at a loss making people think they are in profit (people believe this and not look ahead).
It's quiet simple really:
There won't be a lot of sell pressure even at $4b valuation initially or even a bit higher than that.
Why? No one is buying a public sale to sell it breakeven or for minimal profits.
Everything thinks they aren't in a loss because no one is selling yet.
For the smart people:
A $4b valuation or higher at launch doesn't equal the same amount of liquidity of people sold at those valuations.
(the same can be said about many public sales or presales btw but $PUMP will be no different. Just at an even larger scale).
Basically it's extremely likely short term they will make it look like a good launch (most people won't sell anyway at those valuations so little risk to them) and then it'll slow bleed hard after.
Fool people first - rek it after.
Revisit this tweet in about 1-2 months and I think I'll be fairly right.
(people will also say: nah, it's on you because they launched well and you didn't sell it. But no one does for breakeven or minimal profits lol)
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