$BTC 4h line level officially confirms the formation of a rising wedge! I guess the chartist is going to make a big fuss again... I'm here to give you a precautionary shot: First of all, the rising wedge is often seen as a bearish pattern, but there are a few specific conditions that need to be met to have a high success rate, and they are: 1. The beginning of the wedge must be a strong decline; 2. The process of the gradual rebound of the wedge, the highest point cannot exceed the 0.618 retracement level of the left descending segment. 3. The slower the slope of the upper and lower edges of the wedge, the higher the bearish efficiency, and the steeper the slope, the worse the bearish effect; Therefore, a common mistake made by novice analysts who do not understand the basics is that as long as they see an upward or downward wedge, they will involuntarily assume the direction of the subsequent reversal. I used to make this mistake many times when I first started learning technical analysis... It is obviously an early stage of a reversal and breakthrough market, but it keeps trading against the trend, and finally carries a single loss or completely misses a round of trend... In some range-bound structures, the rising wedge maintains a trend structure that is the standard high-low uplift, and if the left side of the market does not form a clear bearish trend, then the logic of the rising wedge as a downward relay pattern is untenable... In the end, at the end of the wedge, the price broke through the upper edge of the range and the upper edge of the wedge at the same time, leaving a large number of trapped bears to become the fuel for the price to get out of the trend... The following are examples of successful relays of the rising wedge and failure of homeopathic breakouts. Success Stories: Failure Cases: So, going back to the current market, as shown in the chart below, this wedge is not a bearish relay pattern in my eyes, but more of a standard oscillating structure. Therefore, according to the current structure of the wedge, all we can do is to trade the short-term swing inside the wedge, and not to the left of the expectation that the wedge will eventually lead to a bearish trend. In other words, if the lower edge of the wedge breaks, then we can only expect the price to pull back to around 10w, which is the starting point of the wedge, and we cannot expect the price to continue to break new lows and follow the trend market as in the success story above. On the other hand, if the price continues to rise along the upper edge of the wedge, it is better to consider the possibility that the price will break through the upper edge of the wedge as the price gradually approaches the previous high, rather than going short. I know that the current market sentiment is "bears bitter long for a long time..." But it always takes time for a round of bearish trends to brew, and if everyone continues to be bearish, then it is inevitable that there will be a final rise in the market piling up and bursting...