ArkStream Alpha Daily | 06/24 Hot spots 1. The situation in the Middle East has "cooled", but it is not a clear risk Despite the ceasefire announced by Iran, Israel and the United States, Iran's strikes on US military bases in Qatar have exposed the possibility of the conflict still spreading. At present, the situation between the United States and Iran has formed a "superficial balance": The United States fulfilled its obligations as an ally and completed a symbolic air strike Israel stabilizes the political situation and strengthens its internal control Iran moved key nuclear materials ahead of schedule in exchange for a ceasefire window But at the same time, Iran attacked the US military base in Qatar, exposing the nature of the situation as a "ceasefire without a truce". Although Trump proclaimed "a completely unanimous peace", the essence of the incident was more political. The short-term feedback from the market was positive: crude oil fell 15%, gold retreated 1%. But don't ignore the risks: the inability to verify whether Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed, the "advance notice" between the United States and Iran seems to be tacitly cooperating, and the unresolved structural geopolitical contradictions behind the ceasefire agreement In the short term, it seems that "all wins", and in the long term, we still need to be wary of uncertainties. 2. Annual trading volume of $1.4T Payment giant Stripe is betting on stablecoins @stripe @starzqeth Stripe is in no hurry to go public, but it has already bet heavily on stablecoins to seize the future of payments $140 million in payment transactions processed in 2024 Online payment has a global market share of 17.15% It has a high market penetration rate in Europe and the United States, and strong technical compatibility 80% of a16z's top 100 AI startups use Stripe $1.1 billion acquisition of stablecoin company Bridge Stick to the unlisted route and focus on profit and strategic flexibility The stablecoin market has a trading volume of $15T, but the proportion used for payments is low. So, how big is the future of stablecoins? Stripe has already told you the answer. 3. The Celestia token fell by more than 90%, and the OTC bad currency drove out the good currency @celestia TIA is now trading at $1.57, down >90% from its high. But the real melons are just beginning, according to @0xCircusLover accusations: In October 2024, executives began unlocking chips at $6–8. Founder @musalbas Mustafa sold $25M over the OTC. At the same time, he spent money on marketing, and found well-known KOLs such as Bankless / Jon Charb / Andy to carry a sedan chair and shout orders. What about Mustafa's response "It's normal for the price of the currency to be cut in half, and our team still has $100M, which can last for 6 years." Translation: The object won't run, but Bag thinks it does. @RootDataCrypto also confirmed Celestia's OTC in September 2024: Valuation of $3.5B, 100M TIA for sale, which is a $3.5 buy. Investors include Bain, 1kx, Robot, and more. If it was a strategic long at that time, it would have lost a lot of money on the books now. Modularity was once the king of storytelling. Now Celestia has become a textbook case of "chronic shipment + verbal public relations". @theempirepod pointed out in a recent podcast that the OTC market is where bad money drives out good money, and pure long institutions may become the counterparty of the "more insider" project party.