We have officially entered the post-meme era.
1. The meme bull market has gone through two cycles (21, 24). Apart from infrastructure, only memes have experienced two bull runs. Especially in the recent cycle, almost every angle that could be exploited has already been used.
What does this mean? It means that when you see a meme, you can no longer evaluate it as something "new." All kinds of concepts have been demystified. For example, the recently emerged $Eduardo quickly positioned itself around the concepts of brain-machine interfaces and "first coin."
Naturally, people will associate it with previous brain-machine interface concepts, such as the coin for disabled individuals and the one related to mice. The coin for disabled individuals has always had a "disabled" price, while the mouse-related coin had a strong run but never broke the billion mark.
2. In the crypto space, one valuation method is comparative valuation. Thus, the height of Eduardo today is naturally confirmed:
40m * 20% (second-tier dragon) * 20% (bear market) = 1.6m.
Of course, this is just me writing nonsense, but you get the idea.
3. However, there’s another issue here. Since almost every angle has already been exploited, naturally, some people will sell early to lock in profits before the coin reaches its peak. This is normal—buy the rumor, sell the news. As a result, the market cap ceiling continues to drop. The last example was Ghibli.
4. That’s why I call the current meme market the post-meme era. Any era with "post" in its name usually isn’t a good thing. But there’s nothing else to play with right now; the crypto casino has to keep running. Gamblers can’t stop—they feel uneasy if they don’t check the market for a few days. So there will still be weekly "golden dogs" and monthly coins breaking the billion mark.
5. The post-meme era does have one advantage: the hype isn’t as intense. Since everyone has seen it all before, the first reaction is often disbelief. Then, once certainty emerges, FOMO kicks in. That’s why we see very classic candlestick patterns:
$rfc $mubarak
Range-bound consolidation and decline, followed by a few days of consolidation, then a quick flag breakout to a new level, more consolidation, and another flag breakout when good news emerges.
6. Regarding our strategy:
First, evaluate a target by its strongest attribute. How long is its "long board," and is it unique enough? Recently, coins breaking the 20m mark have all had very long and unique "long boards," such as Ghibli, RFC, and White Hat.
Second, maintain a steady mindset and be prepared to endure a 50% pullback. The market doesn’t believe easily; it needs very convincing evidence to trigger FOMO. Meanwhile, the whales comfortably wash out weak hands and accumulate chips.
This type of market is most damaging to the "chasing the pump" crowd. Chasing often leads to buying at the peak, and the gains are minimal. The days of coins surging several times in one go are rare now. I’ve observed several instances of the "Queen" making moves, and chasing pumps always ends badly. Simply put, this market isn’t suited for that strategy.
That’s all for now. I’ll add more thoughts if I come up with anything else.
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