“in theory insolvent” is vastly different to being practically insolvent because of token shrinkage. i.e coins lost to PK leaks, hacks, rugs, lost funds etc
it’s actually a big driving force for crypto valuations and is the reason why:
1) BCH, LINK etc are still $10b market cap
2) maker/Sky still has $200m+ of excess profits
3) BTC is up only in USD terms
i’d probably say real active tether liabilities are 60-80% of the actual headline USDT supply.
because of better opsec / self custody best practices shrinkage isn’t really something one can rely on as back in the day
The Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade. How I read this audit is they think the Fed will cut rates which crushes their interest income. In response, they are buying gold and $BTC that should in theory moon as the price of money falls.
A roughly 30% decline in the gold + $BTC position would wipe out their equity, and then USDT would be in theory insolvent. I'm sure some large holders and exchanges will demand a real-time view of their B/S so they can assess the solvency risk of Tether. Get out your popcorn, I expect the MSM to run wild with this, especially all the editors with TDS who want to shit on Lutnick and Cantor for backing this stablecoin.
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