This is why I’d like to see Junk hold the line Since the ETFs launched in Jan 2024 we’ve basically moved in near-lockstep with HYG outperforming TLT Whilst this is still in an uptrend, think we’re just going to follow it a la ‘higher for longer’ with these shakeouts and consolidations along the way Also, from the article I wrote over a year ago on ‘financial deepening’, we have been stuck at Q3 2020 as it relates to an absolute level on Global M2 / Global GDP — where the delta between these two is a sort of ‘nominal excess liquidity’ that can be financialized (and often is…) Look at prior cycles and see how the YoY delta between these two is more like 2019 and has been for a long while — I still believe this at least partially explains the lack of breadth in crypto this cycle (Obvs this is a very crude measure as 1. lagging because of how data is released and 2. primarily shifts on day-to-day changes in the Dollar — nonetheless useful imo) The relationship between stablecoin dominance and real rates that had been consistent since the ETFs launched has diverged since October — perhaps a combination of gov shutdown + post-10/10 dynamics