Chains are priced as if USDC users are chain users, when really they aren't. Those users and apps don't follow the protocols The systemic risk isn't threat of a forced hard-fork, it's the threat of a correction in price when the market realizes usage metrics are inflated as such

Regardless of if Circle captures a chain via a hard-fork, or if many of its users flee to Tempo, the outcome is identical! (The "real" chain depreciates in price!)