Everyone is screaming that the Bear Market has started BUT THEY’RE WRONG we’re in a massive Bear Trap I spent 21 hours analyzing all market data Here’s what the market is actually heading into 🧵👇

❶ Yes, the market has fallen, but this is not yet a bear market as everyone is shouting It looks like a typical bear trap masking an upcoming rally Many confuse these states even though they have completely different consequences And right now the odds of returning to an uptrend look much stronger than the pessimism

❷ Why does everyone think it's a bear market? Because price is dropping fast and deep while bounces are weak and short Volumes are low, alts look dead and $BTC dominance is rising But this is a typical cleansing scenario before the cycle continues

❸ A real bear market looks different from what we're seeing now There are no aggressive dip buyers and no steady ETF inflows No sustained macro trend and strong inflationary support And most importantly - no sign of capitulation, which we still haven't seen

❹ The drop we've seen is a market breakdown caused by a series of short shocks Macro hasn't changed enough to flip the cycle downward Neither rates, nor liquidity, nor the labor market confirm a bear trend We're seeing a deep correction, not a global trend reversal

❺ Yes, there are factors pressuring the market and creating chaos in the feeds The AI sector is overheated and continues to deflate after its peak Whales have conducted aggressive rebalances and forced margin squeezes Exchanges choked liquidity, making the market fall faster

❻ But the key point - institutions are not exiting the market, they are regrouping ETF flows have slowed down but haven't turned into steady outflows Funds' long positions were reduced in ripped bursts, not systematically This is accumulation behavior, not market exit

❼ How long will this last? A few weeks or a few strong moves until the market clears out The goal of this period is to flush weak capital and restore depth Once that happens the market will return to growth phase

❽ The consequences of this period will be immediately visible Alts that hit deep levels will show the first impulses Bitcoin will stabilize in a narrower range and absorb liquidity Then a gradual recovery will begin that everyone will call "unexpected"

❾ But risks also exist and must be understood If ETFs move into outflows the market will face another wave of pressure If macro suddenly worsens the cycle could enter a prolonged pause But right now these scenarios are NOT the base case

❿ We're not in a bear market - we're in a deep Bear Trap before recovery Those who panic will lose while those who think in data will gain an edge This period creates the best entry points in the cycle And whoever understands this now will win when the market moves again