#USIranTalksProgress

#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ Both sides say "positive signals released," but actually, neither side made concessions. 😄 They are just stubbornly holding out, while the market is being toyed with, jumping up and down. Sat for three hours next to the UN General Assembly in New York, with Qatar relaying messages in between. Iran slammed its conditions on the table: first lift the maritime blockade, unfreeze funds, stop regional conflicts, then the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. The US did not agree

#USIranTalksProgress The most important part of the US-Iran talks may be that both sides finally have something concrete to negotiate 👀 Three hours in New York produced no ceasefire, but Iran put specific demands on the table around Hormuz, the maritime blockade and frozen assets, while Trump says another meeting is coming. What stands out to me is how quickly markets may price peace before peace actually exists. Oil has already reacted to diplomatic hopes, yet the hardest issues remain unresolved and military pressure is still part of the backdrop. The next signal isn't another positive headline. It's whether either side actually compromises on the blockade, assets or Hormuz. Diplomacy can remove a risk premium quickly. Rebuilding trust takes much longer.

Oil struggling for 6 Straight Days, Bond Yields Calling Bluff on the Diplomacy Trade TL;DR 1/ Oil's sixth straight decline on Iran-deal optimism is holding equities near all-time highs, but the bond market is not buying it: 10-year yields near 4.98% and the flattest 2s10s curve in eighteen months say any resolution will be fragile. 2/ The OECD upgraded inflation forecasts for every G20 economy except China and Saudi Arabia, explicitly flagging a response more aggressive than 2022, which kills any near-term dovish pivot story for the Fed, ECB, or BOJ. 3/ Trump's diesel export ban is no longer a tail risk: industry officials privately call it inevitable, and the downstream math points to nearly 2 million barrels per day in refinery run cuts and a ~25 cents per gallon gasoline shock that feeds straight back into the inflation problem. 4/ SPX is gamma-pinned between the 7,800 call wall and the 7,650-7,662 flip zone, and the real risk is not a routine down day but a gap in the eight mega-cap names holding implied correlation at record lows, because the other 492 stocks at sub-1 beta provide no cushion once that breaks. Regime: Fragile. Hold the range but do not chase the equity calm above 7,800, and watch the 7,650-7,662 flip zone as the line between stabilizing and destabilizing dealer flow into month-end.

#USIranTalksProgress Three hours of US-Iran talks in New York sounds encouraging, but I’m trying not to read too much into the positive language just yet 🕊️ Trump described the meeting as “very good” and “productive,” and both sides reportedly plan to meet again. Iran’s proposed terms include lifting the maritime blockade and releasing frozen assets, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains a central issue. Oil prices have already eased as diplomatic hopes improved, showing how quickly markets respond to even a small sign of progress. Still, no ceasefire was reached, and the possibility of further military action has not disappeared. To me, the next meeting matters far more than the compliments after this one. Real progress would mean clearer commitments on shipping access, sanctions and de-escalation—not simply another round of optimistic statements without a timeline 🌊

🚨 BTC IS AT A CRITICAL LEVEL — IRAN & US TALKS COULD BE THE NEXT CATALYST US and Iran officials just held 3 hours of talks in New York. Trump called the meeting “very good” and “constructive” and another meeting is already scheduled. That’s a positive signal — and oil prices have eased somewhat. But don’t get too comfortable. 👀 The same day, Trump also delivered tough remarks at the UN General Assembly. #DailyOrbit

#特朗普将会晤海湾六国，伊朗局势迎来关键节点 The market has seen a modest rebound over the past few days. Hopefully, this time the recovery won’t be hit again by tensions surrounding the US–Iran situation. 🤔 Trump is in New York for the United Nations meetings and is expected to meet with the leaders of the six Gulf countries to discuss Iran and its next steps. He says another war has not been ruled out, while also suggesting that Iran may be willing to negotiate.#DailyOrbit

Oil now carries a diplomatic option alongside a physical supply risk. Iran says it sent Washington three ceasefire terms via Qatar, while the US has not confirmed progress and European refiners face disrupted October crude supplies. My read: credible talks could compress Brent and WTI risk premiums before flows normalize, but without confirmation the market may keep pressure on bond yields and risk-asset valuations. #IranCeasefireTerms

Oil now carries a diplomatic option alongside a physical supply risk. Iran says it sent Washington three ceasefire terms via Qatar, while the US has not confirmed progress and European refiners face disrupted October crude supplies. My read: credible talks could compress Brent and WTI risk premiums before flows normalize, but without confirmation the market may keep pressure on bond yields and risk-asset valuations. $BZ #CryptoCapReclaims2.8T #ZEC38KShortClosed #TrumpGulfIranTalks

SAUDI ARAMCO CUTS EUROPEAN OIL ALLOCATIONS Saudi Aramco has reportedly told European customers they will receive no crude allocations next month, extending supply disruptions caused by the attack East-West pipeline The halt has already triggered replacement buying,Saudi is working restore roughly half pipeline’s capacity within days Market angle:October supply concerns are supporting crude,optimism over pipeline repairs limiting gains. Brent traded around $103.53, with WTI near $101.46. $CL

#TrumpGulfIranTalks President Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders during the United Nations General Assembly, with Iran, regional security and the Strait of Hormuz among the central issues. The diplomatic effort comes after months of conflict and disruption around major shipping routes. Gulf governments are seeking security while also trying to prevent further escalation that could damage energy flows.#CryptoCapReclaims2.8T #ZEC38KShortClosed #UNI21%RallyOnSECRule