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hadibutt
hadibutt
$BTC: THE FURTHER YOU ZOOM OUT, THE STRONGER THE SIGNAL. At every historical date, the model used only information available at that time, forecast forward, then compared the result with what actually happened. The result: 30 days: no edge 90 days: weak 180 days: better 1 year: 34.5% lower forecast error vs random walk Current conditional model: 1 year: ~$178K 2 years: ~$257K 5 years: ~$578K 8 years: ~$1.16M Up close, Bitcoin looks volatile. Zoom out, it is cheap.

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