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Jackson king
Jackson king
Recently, Hynix, SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate all experienced another round of declines after their earnings reports. At first glance, it looks like the storage market is over, but I tend to believe that this time what's being cut is expectations and valuations, not the industry's fundamentals. Hynix's Q2 revenue grew 257% year-over-year, operating profit increased 557%, yet the stock price still fell. SanDisk's revenue grew 51% quarter-over-quarter, with data center business doubling; Western Digital and Seagate's revenue and profit margins are also still growing. The earnings reports are almost ridiculously good, but the market remains unsatisfied. It's not poor performance; it's that the previous rise was too fast, and investors now demand every earnings report to be even more exaggerated than the most extreme expectations. What really needs attention is that Micron has recently shown more resilience compared to other storage stocks. On one hand, Micron covers HBM, server DRAM, and NAND simultaneously, benefiting from a broader range; on the other hand, the company has signed 16 long-term supply agreements, with cumulative minimum revenues of about $100 billion from 14 of these contracts. These agreements include purchase commitments and price floors, meaning Micron's orders, profit margins, and cash flow in the coming years will be more stable than traditional storage cycles. The industry itself has not weakened. DRAM contract prices are expected to continue rising 13%–18% in Q3, NAND up 10%–15%; AI server shipments are still growing, and the NAND market will still have a supply gap in 2026. Of course, there are also bearish factors: ✔ Memory prices are still rising, but the pace has slowed ✔ Consumer sectors like PCs and smartphones are starting to bear the high prices less ✔ Manufacturers like Hynix and Samsung are expanding capital expenditures ✔ After 2027, NAND supply may gradually loosen So my judgment is: #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound

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