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The two sides are talking again, and personally, I think that matters even if we're still far from a final agreement. After months of tension, simply getting both sides back into serious discussions creates at least a possible path toward deescalation.
What I’m watching most is the Strait of Hormuz. If negotiations eventually help restore more normal shipping conditions, the impact could extend far beyond politics oil prices, inflation expectations and overall market sentiment could all react.
But I’m staying cautious. Talks progressing and a deal being reached are two completely different things, and there are still major disagreements to work through.
For me, the next signal isn't another positive headline.
It's whether both sides actually start making compromises. 👀
If that happens, this could become a much bigger market story.
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