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$BTC IS RALLYING, BUT SEPTEMBER STILL DEPENDS ON INFLATION The debate around the September Fed decision is getting interesting. Waller's latest comments essentially leave the door open in both directions. If inflation continues to cool, he would lean toward keeping rates unchanged. But if August inflation comes in hotter, another hike could still become a possibility. That means the market hasn't received a clear dovish signal yet. And this distinction is important for Bitcoin. Markets often celebrate the possibility of a rate hike being avoided, but avoiding another hike isn't the same thing as the Fed becoming aggressively supportive of risk assets. There is a big difference between: “We don't need to tighten further.” and “We're ready to ease policy.” Bitcoin can benefit from the first scenario, but the second would provide a much stronger liquidity narrative. That's why I don't think the current BTC rebound should be judged only by employment data. The bigger test could come with August CPI on September 11. If inflation continues moving lower, the argument for maintaining rates becomes stronger. That could reduce pressure on liquidity expectations and potentially give risk assets more room to move. But if inflation surprises to the upside, the entire narrative can change quickly. And that's where traders need to be careful. A weaker jobs number doesn't automatically mean a dovish Fed. If employment deteriorates while inflation rises, policymakers could remain restrictive because the inflation problem hasn't disappeared. For $BTC, I'm therefore watching the macro data alongside price structure. The current recovery is encouraging, but I want to see whether Bitcoin can continue holding higher levels while rate expectations evolve. If inflation cooperates, the path higher much cleaner. If inflation disappoints, Bitcoin could face another round of volatility. So I wouldn't price in a September rate decision before the data arrives. The Fed hasn't promised a cut. Waller hasn't guaranteed a pause. And inflation still has the final word.