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#FedHawksVsWeakJobs July private payrolls added just 44K jobs — the weakest print in six months and way below the 75K forecast 📉 Normally, that would cool rate-hike expectations. Instead, markets still see roughly a 57% chance of a September hike because the Fed remains focused on inflation 😵‍💫 So now we have weaker jobs pulling one way and stubborn inflation pulling the other. Friday’s payroll report and next week’s CPI could flip the entire September narrative again. Honestly, this macro tug-of-war is exhausting. Which matters more to the Fed now: jobs or inflation? 👀