#AnthropicIPOUpdate

Got offered Anthropic IPO. I said only if it’s all free trading stock. They said it’s locked up for 6 months. I said then it needs to be a big discount to IPO. “You really don’t want Anthropic IPO!!!?” “If I want it, I’ll buy it when it round trips below IPO price and it’s all free trading. Most of the time that’s what happens” SPCX and CBRS back at IPO levels.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

Anthropic's reported IPO timetable matters less than the structure investors may be asked to absorb. A late-September to early-October listing, with some holders selling while others face lockups beyond 180 days, could make the primary-secondary share mix an early signal of conviction. Valuation talk of $1T-$2T will attract attention, but the filing should shift focus to revenue quality, compute costs and customer concentration. My read: the $30T TAM claim may frame the ambition, yet operating evidence will set the public-market appetite. Not advice, just analysis. #AnthropicIPOUpdate

Google And Microsoft Were In Talks For Nscale Compute Deal That Went To Anthropic - @semafor $GOOGL $MSFT

Google invested approximately $3 billion for a 14% ownership stake in Anthropic. At a $2 trillion IPO valuation, Google’s stake would be worth $280 billion — 9,233% ROI.

How The Anthropic And OpenAI IPOs Could Shake Up The AI Brawl

A $30 trillion revenue claim raises the bar for what AI companies say they’re worth to investors. Read more:

Are Frontier lab relative valuations are too absurd nowadays? If Anthropic IPOs at $2T… 10% of that can buy up almost every major established consumer brand: From: Taco Bell/Pizza Hut/KFC, GAP, American eagle, Levi’s, Victoria’s Secret, Cheesecake Factory, Krispy Kreme… Calvin Klein, Kohls, AMC, Kura Sushi, Dennys, Nike, Build a Bear, Jack in the Box, IHOP, Papa John’s… Shake Shack, Apple Bees, Dave & Busters, Under Armour, Petco, Canada Goose. All together. Using 10% of Anthropic. And they’d still have $51.6B leftover.

ANTHROPIC plans to file its IPO prospectus after U.S. Labor Day (Sept. 7) and could list in the U.S. in late September or early October. ()