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This time I went all in with XP $GOOGL earnings exceeded expectations!🧐
Breaking it down, Google's core business mainly consists of three parts:
First is the cloud business, with a Q3 forecast of $29 billion. The cloud business exceeding expectations is basically a done deal, and in October, they signed a computing power cooperation contract with OpenAI worth a total of $22.4 billion. Also, in June, they signed a $30 billion computing power order with SpaceX. Combined with the Gemini series and their own TPU chip shipments, overall, this segment is relatively stable. The latest data📊 shows that Google's cloud backlog currently reaches $513.9 billion, with explosive future fulfillment demand!
Second is the search advertising business, which grew 17% in Q2. With AI features increasing search queries and using AI to improve ad matching, this segment's exceeding growth is also quite certain✅, as referenced by Meta's recent earnings report.
Third is YouTube and streaming ecosystem monetization, including YouTube ads + subscriptions, and the rapidly growing Shorts short video commercialization, which has also become a stable cash flow source!
Another point is the latest Bank of America forecast that Google's Q3 depreciation and amortization is about $8 billion, lower than the market expectation of $8.9 billion. Just this alone can greatly improve Google's profit performance!
Let's wait and see!🤔 The market isn't great right now, so participate more in OKX events to share $250,000 in event rewards. Come join me quickly🔥 $BEAT overall trend is downward. With so many retail investors bottom-fishing, the manipulative whales probably won't give an opportunity. Continue holding.
Long-short ratio: Retail investors bottom-fishing
Retail side: Binance retail accounts long-short ratio is 3.207, OKX retail accounts long-short ratio is as high as 3.55.
Whale side: Number of whales long-short ratio is 3.5935 (very bullish), but whale position long-short ratio sharply dropped to 1.7038.
On-chain core signals:
Lock-up and control: Arkham ranks high on the holding list, TreasuryUpgradeableProxy alone holds 30.81%, multiple Gnosis Safe multisig vaults collectively control over 50%. This means the real circulating supply is extremely thin, and the price is very easy to manipulate.
Deflation narrative: HTX data shows that from October 19 to 26, about 1.245 million BEAT were burned, generating about $82,800 in revenue. The cumulative burn has exceeded 31.32 million tokens. This is indeed a continuous deflation mechanism, but weekly revenue of $82,000 is limited in support relative to its market cap.
At 9:00 on November 1, about 17.64 million BEAT tokens will be unlocked, valued at about $1.19 million.
This is currently the biggest certain bearish factor on the market. Against the backdrop of net outflow of contract funds and whales quietly reducing positions, the selling pressure from this unlocked supply is very likely to be the last straw that breaks this rebound.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Ethereum Foundation has been caught on-chain again. A wallet associated with the Foundation sold 2,785 ETH in the past hour at an average price of $2,304, receiving $6.42 million.
This is not the first time. The last time the Foundation was suspected of selling was two weeks ago, after which ETH dropped 9%.
Many people's first reaction is to criticize. But from another perspective, the Foundation holds hundreds of thousands of ETH; it has to pay salaries, issue grants, and support dozens of client teams. These expenses are denominated in dollars, and in a bear market, if they don't sell coins, they have to lay off staff.
The real problem is the timing. Every time they act, it's just as the market starts to improve, selling millions of dollars worth at once. The spot market is thin, so prices react immediately. Retail investors see this as the official side giving up.
So my view is simple: the Foundation selling coins is not a bearish signal, but a long-term background noise. They could sell every quarter; you can't run away every time.
What you should watch is not whether they sell, but what they do with the money afterward. If the money goes into development and ecosystem funds, it means the assets are still growing; if it's just to cover operational gaps, then Ethereum's business model still hasn't been proven.
In the short term, there are people trapped above the 2300 level, so pushing higher will be a bit tough. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#anthropic rolling 12-month revenue growth about 1200% Korean, Hong Kong, and A-shares intraday quick review (October 27), US semiconductor stocks surged, where is the money flowing out from, and where is it attacking?
Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.82%, ARM up 6%, Intel up 4%. Logically, the Asian chip chain should have followed with some gains today, but looking at the market, the money didn't flow here at all.
Korean stocks are the craziest.
KOSPI surged more than 4% today, SK Hynix soared 6.8%, Samsung up 5%. But this rally is a catch-up from last night's US stock sentiment; yesterday Korean stocks were still being pressed down by foreign capital due to AI investment burdens and oil prices. Today's move is short covering, not new money entering.
On the Hong Kong stock side, northbound funds have net outflow for 9 consecutive days, today another HKD 2.08 billion ran out. Alibaba was sold off by 600 million, CNOOC 500 million, SMIC 310 million. Where did the money go? Zhipu absorbed 430 million, Baidu 270 million, UBTech 140 million. Translation: Big stocks are being drained, AI applications and small robots are receiving.
A-shares are the most honest. The three major indexes turned red, with over 2,900 stocks down. Main funds systematically withdrew from AI hardware: components lost 6.6 billion, semiconductors 4.8 billion, communication equipment 4.5 billion, totaling 16 billion.
The US semiconductor surge is someone else's party; what is really happening in the Asian market today is—pulling money out of AI hardware and moving it towards robots, AI applications, and defensive sectors.The macro environment determines how expensive capital is, while the tax system affects where capital is willing to stay. Regarding the news from the Netherlands, I am more concerned about the tax burden differences between various assets rather than the "sell-off wave" mentioned in the headline.
According to Bloomberg, the Netherlands plans to vote on a related proposal in November: financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and options will be subject to capital gains tax upon sale starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange may still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030. The local crypto industry organization has warned that this arrangement could trigger a sell-off.
My judgment is that this is somewhat negative for the attractiveness of local crypto asset allocation but cannot be directly interpreted as bearish for the global market. My speculation is that if other conditions are similar and stocks can defer tax payment until sale, then crypto assets will need to offer higher expected returns to compensate for the cash outflow during holding. If the financing environment is also tight, this difference may have a greater impact on capital choices.
Another layer of impact is the allocation horizon: annual taxes may make long-term holders pay more attention to cash reserves, but this does not mean everyone will sell their coins. The policy in the Netherlands alone is not enough to indicate the direction of global capital. I will continue to watch whether the proposal retains this differential treatment and will not rush to treat the industry's risk warnings as an already occurring sell pressure.The foldable phone that started shipping over the weekend already has hinge cracks on the inner screen and even shows bright lines. Starting at about 1999, the foldable phone closed Monday around 343.9, down about 1.1%. $AAPL's official statement that this is a "minor cracking" issue—I don't buy it.
On Monday, Apple admitted to CNBC that a "minority" of iPhone Duo inner screens have problems and advised contacting AppleCare for a replacement.
Out-of-warranty screen replacement is listed on the official site at about $999.
iFixit teardown suggests the hinge shape easily pushes against the screen; tolerances or dust particles can ruin the panel.
The market opened around 343.9, peaked near 347.1, dipped to about 341, and closed around 343.9, down about 1.1% from Friday's approximately 347.7.
I acknowledge some people queued for the foldable phone, but this screen issue from the first weekend is a debt I think is still unsettled—around 344, the defect seems priced in, so I'll keep an eye on this price.
First, watch for support between about 341–344, and a rebound above about 347; if the daily close breaks below about 341, expect a drop toward 339–330.
Next Wednesday after the US market closes (around early morning 11/3 Beijing time) is the earnings report. Should this hardware controversy continue to weigh on valuation?
Are you more concerned about the "replacement" policy or the out-of-warranty $999 repair price tag?
$AAPL
#Today'sMarketTalk 🔍Why does the tax system take two different paths for the same type of asset? The Netherlands plans to vote in November: under the current proposal, capital gains tax will be levied on the sale of stocks, bonds, and option plans starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange may continue to be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030.
Don't rush to conclusions. The "sell-off wave" is a warning from industry organizations, not a fact that has already occurred. I think what's more important than this warning is the tax difference: taxes may be due even without selling, which increases cash flow pressure; for other assets, if taxes can be deferred until sale, crypto holdings bear an additional relative burden.
An interesting detail here: the warning also comes from stakeholders. This is my speculation—if the risk of sell-off is continuously emphasized before the vote, there may also be lobbying motives to seek equal treatment. I will watch whether the final text adjusts the classification of crypto assets and will not take the warning as evidence of capital flight prematurely.To start with a cold splash of water, I do not agree with interpreting the Dutch tax reform as an outright negative for the entire market, and I am more concerned about the attractiveness of allocating crypto assets locally. The Netherlands plans to vote in November: stocks, bonds, and options are proposed to be taxed upon sale starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange may still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030.
I have two reasons: if the tax difference is implemented, holding crypto assets would require preparing cash for taxes on unrealized gains, which is more disadvantageous compared to assets taxed only upon sale; but since the proposal has not been finalized, and the industry's warnings are not based on capital outflow data, jumping from local tax burdens to a market-wide sell-off is a leap too far.
Of course, the industry's concerns might be valid. If the rules pass as proposed and there is sustained evidence of local sell-offs, I will raise my assessment of selling pressure. For now, I am watching whether the tax difference will be maintained and will not substitute the word "sell-off wave" for evidence.#October FOMC Rate Decision to Be Announced This Week
The FOMC is very likely to hold rates steady this week, keeping them at 3.75%-4.00%, with over an 85% probability. There was some volatility before the announcement, but don’t get too excited yet— inflation remains high, the statement is expected to be hawkish, and Powell might hint at a rate hike in December.
$BTC has been oscillating around $79,000 these past few days, testing this level for the third time. ETFs are still seeing outflows. Wintermute says the FOMC will likely decide the direction; if $79,000 doesn’t hold, the next support is around $76,000. $ETH is weaker, down five days in a row, hovering near 2320, with 2300-2280 as a critical support zone.
In short, the decision itself is no surprise; the key is the tone after the announcement. If it’s hawkish, both $BTC and $ETH will likely shake.35 billion USD, enough to catch attention. But what really matters about Meta's financing this time is: when will the money arrive, how much equity will shareholders have to give up, and how much more must AI earn to cover this investment? Meta announced on October 26 the launch of two issuances totaling about 35 billion USD: approximately 22.5 billion USD in Class A common stock, paired with a forward sale agreement; and about 12.5 billion USD in depositary shares representing mandatory convertible preferred equity. This is not an ordinary bank loan. The timing of funds arriving is especially easy to overlook. The announcement clearly states that the company initially does not expect to receive funds from the forward purchasers of common stock but will obtain the corresponding amounts when settling the forward agreements in the future. Therefore, "launching a 35 billion USD issuance" should not be interpreted as 35 billion USD already fully credited to the company's account. There is also a plan for about 60 billion USD in future market-priced issuances. However, related agreements have not yet been signed, and the specific timing, scale, and terms remain undetermined, with an expected start no earlier than Q1 2027. Adding the two parts together, one can discuss a financing plan of about 95 billion USD, but it should not be reported as completed fundraising. Expansion expenditures are also substantial: the company expects capital expenditures of 135 to 145 billion USD in 2026 and disclosed operating cash flow of 97 billion USD for the first three quarters. The former is a full-year expectation, the latter is an actual value for nine months, and they cannot be simply subtracted to fake a full-year cash shortfall. My judgment: equity financing can increase funding sources but also brings potential dilution. Whether this money is worth it ultimately depends on whether the new investment can generate sufficient profit andAI’S MEMORY BOOM FACES A REALITY CHECK.
SK hynix reports Q3 earnings on October 28.
Analysts expect nearly ₩77 trillion in operating profit and margins above 78%.
But the headline isn’t the real test.
Can HBM4 shipments scale fast enough to justify those expectations as Samsung intensifies competition?
For AI markets, tomorrow’s guidance on production, pricing and demand may matter more than record profits.
#AI
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Anthropic has reached the stage of publicly submitting IPO documents, but there is still a long way between "applying for listing" and "having a confirmed listing price." The valuation records on the trending list cannot yet be considered final results. The S-1 filing submitted to the U.S. SEC on October 26 states that the company is applying to be listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, intending to use the ticker ANT. The document is still a preliminary prospectus, with the number of shares and price range left blank, and it clearly states that the information is incomplete, subject to change, and the securities cannot be sold before the registration statement becomes effective. I am more concerned about another sentence in the document: this proposed offering includes both shares sold by the company and shares sold by selling shareholders; the company will not receive funds from the latter. In other words, even if we see a very large total IPO size in the future, we must break it down further: how much goes into the company's account and how much belongs to existing shareholders selling their shares. This affects how we understand the significance of the financing. The new funds obtained by the company can support subsequent operational investments; the sale of old shares mainly changes the shareholders. Both are part of the offering but cannot all be counted as new AI R&D or computing power budgets. My judgment: discussing "whether it will set a record" now is less meaningful than waiting for calculable conditions. Offering price, number of shares after issuance, ratio of new shares to old shares, and net funds raised by the company—missing any one of these can change the understanding of the transaction. The higher the valuation, the more it requires operational growth to be realized, rather than just comparing whose number is bigger. If the document is later revised to include the price range and issuance structure, combined with operational performance,Customers deposit money into the platform, and the platform earns profits, but there is still a gap in between. For Robinhood's latest earnings report, I am more interested in seeing whether this gap has narrowed. The company's investor relations page lists the Q3 earnings call time as 5 PM Eastern Time on October 27, corresponding to 5 AM Beijing Time on October 28. This article will first discuss the earnings preview and cannot prematurely disclose unverified quarterly results. The verified August operational data shows net deposits of $4 billion, with a cumulative $74.1 billion over the past 12 months. Funds entering the platform help expand the business base, but net deposits are not operating revenue; the statistics also include contributions from acquisitions and some custodial accounts, so they cannot be fully considered as organic growth of the original business. Trading data is also not uniformly upward. August stock trading volume increased 68% year-over-year; options contracts increased 50% year-over-year but decreased 10% month-over-month; crypto trading volume was $17.5 billion, up 61% month-over-month but down 38% year-over-year. For the same business, choosing different comparison baselines can tell completely different stories. Moreover, of the $17.5 billion, Robinhood App accounts for $7.4 billion, and Bitstamp accounts for $10.1 billion. The customer structures and fee models of these two parts may differ, so you cannot simply multiply the combined trading volume by a fixed rate to calculate company revenue. The above are preliminary, unaudited operational data for August and cannot replace the complete Q3 results. My judgment: whether growth can continue depends on whether customer funds remain and trading activity is mostBrother Sun added another $20.32 million $PEPE?! Since 10.17, a total of $48.76 million has been transferred out 🐸
10 hours ago, the address 0x721…E5991, marked by Arkham as associated with Sun Yuchen, withdrew 4.65 trillion PEPE; currently Brother Sun holds a total of 11.8 trillion $PEPE, with an average withdrawal price of $0.000004114. Despite market fluctuations, there is still an unrealized profit of $2.085 million, but it is unclear whether this is Brother Sun's personal wallet or exchange-related funds.
Wallet address /0x72132bF09a9ee6517F3f1d997b4b3cd2115E5991The 28th will be exciting, with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, but I don't think they will raise rates this time, especially since the election is on November 4th. There's no need to raise rates again before the election. Currently, employment and the economy are holding up. The inflation caused by oil is a bit high, but you gain some and lose some. The growth rate of U.S. oil exports is somewhat exaggerated. Inflation is inflation, but money is being made. Now even Middle Eastern and European oil has to be booked years in advance.
Recently, there have been a huge number of short positions. Then it's time for Microsoft, Google, and Amazon earnings reports. If there's any issue, tech will immediately crash on you. At this point, if their capital growth meets expectations and earnings are a bit better, shorts will be aggressively targeted.
I still believe the real risk lies after the midterm elections. The big downturn hasn't come yet; keep watching when the last two upward trends start to weaken. That will be the total collapse.
#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ Seeing the resumption of Middle East crude oil transportation, the first reaction is often: supply is back, so oil prices should drop, right? But restoring export volumes does not answer how much refineries have to pay to get the oil delivered. On October 26, an oil market analysis by Discovery Alert, citing Citibank data, stated that Gulf crude oil flow in September, excluding Iran, had recovered to over 81% of pre-war levels. This refers to the recovery degree of transportation within a specific scope and cannot be generalized to the entire Middle East having fully returned to normal. The same report pointed out that over 1 million barrels of crude oil are transported daily via ship-to-ship transfers. Transshipment allows cargo to keep moving but also adds operational steps and occupies vessel time. Even if export barrel numbers recover, completing the same transport volume may require more ships and longer time. This explains an easily overlooked contradiction: oil is flowing, but logistics efficiency may still not have recovered. The report mentioned that the freight cost for ultra-large crude carriers from the Gulf to China is about $35 per barrel, which is a specific route cost and cannot be taken as a global average, nor directly added to any barrel of crude oil pricing. My judgment: transportation recovery can ease supply tightness, but to assess whether this cost pressure has eased, one must look at whether voyage distances and transshipment have decreased, and whether freight and insurance costs have fallen. Export volume is only one indicator. Of course, high costs do not guarantee oil price increases. If routes gradually normalize while end demand weakens, the original risk premium may be compressed. If exports continue to recover and related route freight costs keep declining, I will withdraw my view that logistics costs stillTHE RISK MAP HAS A CRYPTO CORNER.
Moody’s Analytics’ latest matrix examines 27 potential shocks over 12–18 months. A crypto crash ranks among the more likely risks, but its estimated damage to the wider economy is comparatively limited.
No crash probability. No price target. Just a reminder that liquidity matters more than headlines ahead of the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.
Read risk maps as warnings, not trading signals.
#Macro #CryptoTreasuryDivides The market is so quiet it's a bit stifling. BTC is repeatedly testing around 800, with resistance between 805 and 808, and 800 acting like a reluctant defensive line. This "neither dead nor alive" state is more exhausting than a one-sided market, isn't it? I've been watching this sideways movement for a long time, and my biggest impression isn't about direction but about rhythm. The Nasdaq pulled back a bit pre-market, but with the FOMC on the 28th right ahead, it's unlikely we'll see a strong recovery before the results. Reaching 293xx to 295xx would already be respectable. What really makes trading difficult is what comes next: a high probability of a spike on the 28th, followed by the November 3rd midterm elections, after which the market pace will noticeably accelerate over the next two weeks. Those who didn't accumulate chips at previous lows or highs are better off focusing on intraday and short-term swings, rather than stubbornly trying to change the structure, or else profits that aren't secured will become a daily drama 😂. This is also the risk management angle I want to discuss: now it's not about who predicts better, but who thinks through their position size and stop losses before volatility expands. On the bullish side, the 800 support still holds, and the Nasdaq's pre-market recovery willingness shows risk appetite hasn't completely died out. Once the FOMC is settled and election uncertainties start to be digested, BTC has a chance to lead a sentiment rebound, with ETH and altcoins following. On the bearish side, until the 805 to 808 resistance is broken, any rebound can only be considered a recovery. Chasing highs during spike moves is the easiest way to get slapped down, with leverage and dense stop-loss zones being repeatedly swept. XAU is showing a similar pattern here.Will SanDisk's earnings report this quarter exceed expectations?
My judgment is: the probability that the performance figures will exceed the market consensus is relatively high, but it is not highly probable that the stock price will continue to rise after the earnings report.
There are three main factors supporting the positive performance:
NAND is still in a seller's market, with tight supply and product price increases continuing to support revenue and gross margin;
The company’s revenue, gross margin, and free cash flow all improved significantly last quarter, and operating leverage is still being released;
Data center and enterprise storage demand is strong, and AI-related high-capacity products remain the main growth drivers.
But the risks are also clear. SanDisk’s stock price has already risen significantly, and the market has priced in strong profit expectations in advance. For this type of cyclical stock, what truly determines post-earnings performance is often not "whether last quarter exceeded expectations," but rather:
Whether revenue and profit guidance for the next quarter will continue to be revised upward;
Whether the NAND price increase is starting to slow down;
Whether the non-GAAP gross margin has peaked;
Whether long-term supply agreements can improve revenue visibility;
Whether the data center business can continue to maintain rapid growth.
SanDisk is very likely to deliver an earnings report that exceeds market expectations, but the stock price performance may be "earnings beat but no stock price increase," or it may be a "slight beat with stock price adjustment."
From an investment perspective, it is not advisable to bet solely on a single quarter’s performance; it is more worthwhile to track management’s latest judgment on next quarter’s guidance, NAND price trends, and supply-demand dynamics. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $SNDK $ETH
A bunch of people are laughing that Maji is about to blow up again, the liquidation king. I just casually checked the on-chain data, and this time it's really precarious: the 25x long position only has 68 ETH left, opened at 2313.9, liquidation price 2290.6, with just over 4,000 USDT in the account as margin. Right now ETH is at 2318, just one step away from liquidation, $28 difference.
At the same time, on-chain monitoring shows that the old OG who entered at $0.31 sold another 1500 ETH in the past 8 hours, and an ancient giant whale moved 3000 ETH to exchanges. Some are stubbornly holding on at the liquidation line, while others are offloading.
Everyone is watching to see when he will blow up, but I think this position itself isn't that important; his position size can't make waves. But someone who lost tens of millions down to a few thousand USDT and still dares to open 25x leverage is the truest thermometer of this round of sentiment. When he stops opening positions, it might be more useful than any indicator.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The story of AI memory is very hot, but Hynix will deliver the results tomorrow. Besides orders, there are three questions: Has the goods been delivered? Has the profit been retained? Has the cash been collected? The company's official invitation on October 21 confirmed that the third-quarter results will be announced before 9 a.m. Korean time on October 28, with a conference call starting at 9 a.m., corresponding to 8 a.m. Beijing time. As of the verification of this earnings preview, market forecasts cannot be regarded as already disclosed results. This time, focusing on HBM4, I first look at product progress. Customer certification, mass production, actual shipment, and revenue recognition are different stages. Even if management talks about sufficient orders, it is necessary to ask about delivery times and how much has already entered the current quarter's revenue. Where there is no separate disclosure, the unknown remains, and one cannot calculate how much profit HBM4 has contributed on their own. Second, look at profit quality. Selling more high-end products may improve the product mix; however, ramp-up costs, yield rates, and depreciation of new equipment will also affect profitability. Therefore, revenue growth and operating profit margin need to be viewed together. Even if overall profit improves, it is necessary to distinguish whether it comes from traditional memory prices rather than being entirely attributed to HBM4. Third, look at cash. How much has operating cash flow increased, and how much has capital expenditure consumed? If book profit grows accompanied by heavier inventory, accounts receivable, or expansion expenses, the cash shareholders receive may not increase correspondingly. My judgment: the most valuable part of this earnings report is to complete the evidence of "orders—delivery—profit—cash." If the company only gives optimistic statements about demand but lacks verifiable delivery and profit information, I will not raise my expectations for HB$BTC's latest round of decline occurred after attempting to rebound near $85,000. The report on October 26 showed Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume was approximately $17.55 billion and noted that Bitcoin's price once dropped to $79,332. These figures are rolling data and will change over time. Please do not confuse them with subsequent exchange quotes or treat them as closing prices.
This decline happened after three consecutive trading days of inflows and two trading days of outflows in the US stock spot ETF. Farside Investors' daily trading table showed inflows of $526.7 million on October 19, $23.2 million on October 20, and $524.8 million on October 21. Outflows were $635.6 million and $137.9 million on October 22 and 23, respectively, totaling $773.5 million in outflows. Summing the five inflows results in a net inflow of $301.2 million. Upon verification, Farside had an issuer entry missing on October 23, so the displayed total is still subject to adjustment.
Therefore, even with two consecutive days of decline, it does not necessarily mean the week will end with a net outflow. Funds ultimately still rose, but demand reversed on the day, and Bitcoin failed to hold the high level. Previous reports on three days of inflows had already indicated the market pulled back after approaching $85,000. New ETF funds alone cannot sustain Bitcoin at that price level. ⚠️⚠️⚠️
Brothers, the FOMC meeting is happening today and tomorrow, with the decision announced at 2 AM Thursday and Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM. Let me highlight the key points for you:
First, there's a 90% chance of no rate hike, which is already priced in, so no hike isn't really a positive surprise.
Second, the focus is on his stance for December. CME currently shows a 69% chance of a rate hike in December; if he even hints "December not ruled out," Bitcoin will drop to a lower level immediately.
Third, Brent crude is still above 110, the 10-year US Treasury yield is over 5%, inflation can't be contained, so Powell has no reason to be dovish.
I think the most likely scenario is: no rate hike but hawkish tone, Bitcoin will first drop sharply then rebound. Don't bet on direction early; wait until it's confirmed before making moves. Reduce positions to the minimum before Wednesday.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ A recent signal worth noting: long liquidations are clearly more than shorts, and the funding rate is still positive, indicating that those chasing longs are still paying, but the price can't rise. This kind of structure tends to first trigger a wave of long liquidations before any rebound. Volatility has also been squeezed from about 13% down to around 6%, tightening more and more, so the breakout will happen quickly. Therefore, I now calculate stop losses and position sizes for every trade in advance, exiting with a 1%-2% loss per trade, not holding losing positions. Staying alive is more important than guessing right once.
This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#TradingInsights #RiskManagement First consider the worst-case scenario: if this incoming transfer is gradually liquidated, short-term absorption might be tight. According to monitoring, an early address that subscribed to 100,000 ETH in 2015 transferred 3,000 ETH to exchanges in the past 24 hours, still holding 47,000 ETH on-chain.
⚠️ I tend to be cautious but do not equate the transfer directly with a dump: whether it has been traded is still unclear, and how the remaining holdings will be handled is also unknown. Ordinary people should not treat whale movements as trading signals; first, list how much loss you can bear per trade; I will continue to watch for actual trading evidence.【Market Real-Time Quotes】$BTC is consolidating narrowly around $80,000, $ETH slightly down near $2,317, with mainstream coins remaining cautious ahead of the macro window. Meanwhile, the atmosphere in the AI Agent sector is a completely different scene. 👇 Let's first put these two parallel lines together today: 📌 Ant Lingguang 2.0: Released on October 27, the core upgrades include cross-session memory, long-term task scheduling, and tool connectivity. Relying on an independent cloud host, the AI continues running after the user exits the conversation, proactively identifying needs, initiating monitoring, and reminding at key nodes. It has integrated Alipay bills, membership, travel, as well as DingTalk, Feishu, email, Mijia, and other service capabilities, extending management to cross-platform workflows and smart home control. 📉 On-chain AI Agent tokens: The total market cap has dropped from the peak of $15.7 billion in January 2025 to about $3.65 billion now, a decline of nearly 80%. Bittensor ($TAO) is at $250.50, down 1.1% in 24h; NEAR at $4.48, down 1.5%; Fetch.ai ($FET) at $0.174, down 0.5%. Putting these two lines together raises a question hard to avoid in the crypto space: If big companies have already made functional Agents into daily infrastructure, what should the premium of on-chain Agent tokens be based on? The answer lies in the gap between "product" and "token." Sparsity Data's research report points out, open sourceTraditional financial giant Franklin Templeton has come up with a new twist: from now on, when you buy its stock ETFs, dividends won't be paid out in cash anymore; instead, the money will be used to buy $BTC for you
They just applied for two new funds with a simple strategy: over 95% of the money still buys U.S. stocks, while about 5% of the portfolio is allocated to buying BTC
Previously, when funds received stock dividends, they would reinvest them in stocks. But for these two funds, as soon as a dividend is paid, the next day the dividend money is directly used to buy BTC on the market
So traditional stock investors don't need to register on crypto exchanges; just hold this stock fund quarterly, and it will automatically "dollar-cost average" $BTC for you using dividends
Industry analysis: the fund is currently small in scale, so the amount of Bitcoin bought with dividends is limited and won't have a significant direct impact on the market
But the important thing is its strong symbolic meaning: it’s like a traditional financial stock account gradually turning into an automatic buying pipeline for the crypto world
#富兰克林邓普顿推出美股股息买BTC新型ETF 2026-10-27:
BTC and ETH both contracted with reduced volume, with the FOMC announcement about 40 hours away. Price changes are minimal, but funding rates have both risen to the 85%+ percentile over 90 days, indicating a clear increase in leverage crowding.
Continuing to wait and watch today, no early directional bets.
Compared to yesterday, the real focus is on derivatives:
BTC: Price −0.33%, funding rate percentile 74.4 → 85.6, OI +1.95%
ETH: Price −0.41%, funding rate percentile 51.5 → 86.7, OI +2.28%
Price down, OI up, high funding rates indicate new leveraged positions are accumulating.
ETH is deteriorating faster.
BTC | Current price around 80,150.
4H Bollinger Band width has compressed to the 10.5% percentile of the past 200 candles, indicating extremely low volatility.
Core range:
79,220 — 80,600
No trading as long as 4H remains within this range.
Break below 79,220: watch 78,400 → 78,000.
Break above 80,600: considered an upward breakout, but current long R:R is insufficient, so temporarily abandoned.
The biggest message from BTC is not direction but that volatility is about to release.
ETH | Weaker
Current price about 2,325, daily EMA200 around 2,319, only +0.24% above.
Meanwhile:
Funding rate percentile 51.5 → 86.7
25d skew 2.47 → 4.12
Retail long-short ratio 3.39
ETH/BTC near recent lows
ETH’s structure, sentiment, and positions are weaker than BTC.
The key level to watch:
Whether the daily closes below 2,319.
If it breaks down effectively, consider:
Entry 2,310
Stop loss 2,352
Targets 2,250 / 2,200
R:R about 2.6
BTC vs ETH:
BTC is closer to a “turning point”;
ETH is closer to a “breakdown.”
If both trigger downward simultaneously, I would prioritize ETH because its daily structure is more cleanly broken.
The biggest upcoming variables:
October 29, 02:00 FOMC
October 29, 02:30 Powell press conference
So today’s strategy remains simple:
No new positions, no predictions, wait for a breakout.
Low volatility + high leverage + FOMC approaching.
A major move may be coming soon, but there is no clear direction yet. $AMZN While consensus revenue of $202.2 billion implies a strong 12.2% YoY growth, the estimated EPS of $1.96 represents an increase of just 0.5% compared to Q3 2025 ($1.95), leaving a huge window for an unexpected margin beat or compression.
#AmazonQ3AWSOutlook The heavy bombshell hanging over the US stock market this week: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision + Powell's press conference, GDP, and core PCE inflation data.
The market is now most looking forward to a rate cut #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The 2:00 AM rate decision + 2:30 AM press conference:
The rate itself is unlikely to change much this time; the focus is on what Powell says. If he signals that inflation is easing and there is room for rate cuts later, growth stocks like the Nasdaq and storage will be directly lifted by capital; if he continues to speak tough, saying inflation is still volatile and rate cuts will be delayed, high-valuation stocks like $SOXL and $SNDK will immediately come under pressure and sell off.
The 8:30 PM GDP and core PCE:
GDP reflects the economy's heat; if GDP is too strong, the market will interpret it as the economy holding up well, so there is no rush to cut rates;
Core PCE is the Fed's most important inflation indicator! If PCE rises, rate cut expectations cool down immediately, and the US tech sector is prone to plunge; if PCE is 0.2% lower than the previous value, rate cut expectations heat up, giving growth stocks upward momentum.
SK Hynix's earnings report just came out; storage was originally in a tug-of-war for reversal, but whether it can have a big rally depends on the Federal Reserve.
Earnings are the sector's own fundamentals, while the rate decision and inflation data are the macro gatekeepers for the entire market.
Even if SK Hynix's earnings are good, as long as Powell's speech is hawkish, the rebound can easily be interrupted; conversely, as long as this round of inflation data weakens and the Fed signals dovishness, US stocks, semiconductors, and risk assets like BTC will see a resonant rally.In the futures market, even if it's called copper, different grades and delivery locations cannot be mixed for accounting. When I look at computing power contracts, I usually first check the "Delivery Specification" before discussing how large the market can be.
Arthur Hayes proposed in "The Trifecta" to establish a computing power trading market for AI agents through the Flop Network, paid with $FLOP, and to develop forward, futures, and perpetual contracts based on the spot price of computing power. This is a concept and should not be considered as already implemented.
I think this matter is more important for hedging value between computing power supply and demand than for stimulating speculative sentiment. But computing power is not a standard commodity; hardware and task compatibility affect actual output. If the contract does not match the actual rental cost, hedging could instead leave exposure. This is my speculation; the key lies in the contract details. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? What specifications do you think should be clearly written for computing power delivery?Is Dogecoin $DOGE worth holding long-term in this bull market???
I've always thought that the cryptocurrencies truly worth holding long-term should include both BTC and DOGE.
BTC is more like digital gold, with its core value being scarcity and store of value. But from the perspective of Satoshi Nakamoto's original concept of peer-to-peer electronic cash, DOGE aligns more closely with that direction.
Many people attack DOGE for its unlimited issuance, but they overlook a key point: a fixed issuance of about 5 billion coins per year does not mean the inflation rate remains constant forever. As the total circulating supply grows, the same amount of new issuance represents a decreasing proportion. Currently, the annual inflation rate is about 3%, and it will continue to decrease in the future.
Currency doesn't necessarily have to be absolutely deflationary. DOGE's design leans more towards circulation and payment, rather than having everyone lock up coins as scarce assets for hoarding.
DOGE itself is an independent PoW public chain, requiring miners to invest computing power and electricity to maintain the network. Its underlying mechanism is different from tokens issued directly on existing public chains. As BTC becomes increasingly financialized and more focused on value storage, it has indeed drifted from the original electronic cash vision. Coupled with the long-standing community disputes over its direction, it makes one wonder: is BTC's development path today still what Satoshi Nakamoto originally envisioned? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 October FOMC in one sentence: The baseline scenario is a “hawkish pause” — no rate hike, but absolutely no rate cut, with focus on whether to leave the door open for a December hike
This ties in with your earlier look at SK Hynix HBM memory chips: AI high-growth sectors (HBM, computing chips) are very sensitive to long-term US Treasury yields, and this FOMC is a major macro variable before SKHY earnings
Time: Beijing time, October 29 at 2:00 AM decision, 2:30 AM Powell press conference; ⚠️ This meeting will not update the dot plot or SEP economic forecasts, so information is concentrated in the statement wording + press conference Q&A
1. Current market consensus (CME FedWatch)
- Probability of holding rates steady in October (3.75%-4.00%) is about 90%, with only about 10% chance of a 25bp hike, and almost no pricing for a rate cut
- The real market game is whether there will be another 25bp hike in December; futures price the probability of a December hike close to 70%
- Background: a hike was just made in September; inflation stickiness + rising oil prices are hawkish reasons; weaker nonfarm payrolls and tech credit disruptions are reasons to pause consecutive hikes
2. Three scenario simulations (corresponding to the market, including storage stocks like SK Hynix)
✅ Scenario 1: Neutral baseline (highest probability) — pause rate hikes, keep wording that “further tightening may still be possible”
Powell’s stance: no commitment to a December hike, nor closing the door on hikes, continuing data dependence. ETH is currently priced at about $2305, down 1.37% in 24 hours. 2300 is the last integer support line for now, with the intraday low having already touched near it. More importantly, the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 6960 ETH in a single day, with a cumulative outflow of 85,801 ETH over seven days, valued close to $200 million. On-chain, there are still ancient whales moving; the addresses from the 2015 ICO transferred another 3000 ETH to exchanges in the past 24 hours. The price is holding above 2300, but selling pressure is coming simultaneously from both the ETF and the whales. SOL is currently priced at about $100.35, down 1.22% in 24 hours. The 100 level has previously been briefly breached intraday but recovered; this time is different: on-chain data shows three wallets suspected to belong to the same whale have moved 482,228 SOL in the past three days, worth about $49.17 million, of which 171,430 SOL have already been deposited to exchanges. These are not just orders placed; the tokens are already on the shelf. SOL's liquidation data is also interesting: of the $6.55 million liquidated in 24 hours, 79% were long positions. The bulls are being pushed out, not entering actively. XRP is currently priced around $1.29 to $1.30, showing a slight increase in 24 hours. But looking at the liquidation data separately: 87% of XRP's 24-hour liquidations are long positions. This means those betting on a rise are being liquidated, and the price is barely holding, not supported by new$UNI Arthur Hayes just sold off all his UNI holdings, but the market barely reacted.
With such huge institutional selling pressure, the price only dipped less than 1% in a single day. The 6.8 support level was tested several times but never broke; the market is very resilient. Honest signals lie in the pairing of the drop and volume; even with this scale of negative news, the price doesn't break down, clearly showing big money is quietly and steadily buying at the bottom.
The chips have been cleaned out so thoroughly that even a blatant dump can't shatter it. Next, just a little emotional spark could send it soaring.
#UNI$ONE is tightly controlled, continuously hitting new lows.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Inflows look good, trading is coolTrump's approval rating is 32%, and the Democrats lead by 11 percentage points in the generic congressional ballot.
The numbers themselves are not fatal. What is fatal is that the Democrats have already sharpened their knives in advance.
Crypto companies associated with the Trump family—WLFI, 1789 Capital, Polymarket, Kalshi, plus Zhao Changpeng—are all preemptively hiring lawyers and lobbyists, some specifically connected to the Democratic Party.
When have you ever seen a "legal and compliant" industry collectively hire lawyers before an election?
Let's start with the $500 million for WLFI.
On January 17, 2025, four days before Trump's inauguration, Aryam Investment, owned by Sheikh Tahnoon of the Abu Dhabi royal family, signed an agreement to acquire 49% of WLFI for $500 million. Of the initial payment, $187 million went directly to Trump family entities.
Who is Tahnoon? The UAE National Security Advisor, managing assets over $1.3 trillion, nicknamed the "Spy Prince"—he has been pushing the U.S. to approve the export of tightly controlled AI chips.
A person who needs U.S. government approval to export chips gave nearly $200 million to the president's family project four days before the inauguration. The Democrats have singled out this deal as the core of their investigation.
Now about CZ's pardon.
Seven Democratic senators have already sent a letter to the Department of Justice demanding an explanation for why Trump pardoned CZ. The letter states: this pardon sends a signal to the crypto industry that "you can commit crimes with impunity."
CZ has admitted to violating the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act. Binance also helped develop stablecoins for a company partially owned by the president.
The Democrats' logic is straightforward: you pardoned a person who pleaded guilty, and his company has business dealings with your family.
But what the market really overlooks is WLFI's own data.
The governance token WLFI fell from $0.45 in August 2025 to $0.05 in June 2026, a drop of 88%. On October 20, WLFI dropped nearly 6% again, closing at $0.0538.
On the same day, WLFI's issued stablecoin USD1 saw $401 million redeemed within two weeks, including $200 million from an unidentified wallet, transferred out in batches of $300,000 to $500,000.
The stock price drop can be explained as "market volatility." But an unidentified large holder withdrawing $200 million in two weeks cannot be explained.
Bloomberg itself admits there are obstacles to the investigation: foreign evidence is inaccessible, and the DOJ may not cooperate.
But the impact of the investigation never requires a "conviction."
A subpoena, a hearing, a media leak—these are enough to overturn the valuation models of WLFI and BNB. The market fears not the "outcome" but the "process"—and this process will last for months, with every tug-of-war amplifying emotions.
The Democrats do not need a new law to crack down on crypto.
A subpoena and a hearing are enough to rewrite the valuation models of WLFI and BNB.
$BTC $WLFI $BNB Arthur Hayes proposed in "The Trifecta" to establish a computing power trading market for AI agents through the Flop Network, using FLOP tokens for payment, and to develop forwards, futures, and perpetual contracts based on spot computing power prices. He also pointed out that there is currently no unified global benchmark for computing power pricing.
I think this is an important infrastructure concept, but the short-term bullish sentiment may be overestimated. Without a unified benchmark, spot prices are hard to stabilize; when spot liquidity is insufficient, derivatives will amplify both volatility and pricing deviations, which affects ordinary users the most.
📌 Here's a leverage tip for newcomers: assuming the computing power price is 100 and you go 10x long, ignoring maintenance margin, a price drop of about 10% approaches liquidation. If the quoted price itself is not transparent, the liquidation point becomes even harder to determine. Next, I will focus on whether spot computing power can form a reliable price, then look at derivatives.How much has the prediction market actually grown this year? Someone dug up a set of data: from January 1 to October 25, the cumulative number of transactions on a certain prediction platform surged from 241,600 to 80,584,900, a 334-fold increase. It multiplied more than three hundred times.
This growth rate is not driven by a single coin pump, but by the repeated emergence of demand itself. After the 5-minute BTC price fluctuations end, there are still 15-minute US stock market ups and downs; after a Dota match, there’s LOL, and after LOL, there’s the next World Championship; football happens every week, and beyond football, there’s NBA, football, weather, interest rate cuts, earnings reports, gold, and crude oil. There are 365 days in a year, and almost every day there are new topics to bet on.
What’s more crucial is the threshold. Opening a contract requires understanding margin, liquidation, and funding rates; the prediction market only requires judging right or wrong, a binary outcome—if you win, you win. If you talk to someone who has played LOL for ten years about chains, wallets, and airdrops, they’ll lose focus in three sentences; but if you ask them who will win the championship this year, they can talk with you all night.
This might be the real entry point for the prediction market: not educating traders better, but directly turning ordinary people’s interests into liquidity.
The risks are also obvious. Odds are determined by the pool; unpopular markets have very thin depth, and a single large order can cause price slippage; settlement rules, oracle disputes, and regulatory standards are all variables. Good-looking data doesn’t mean every market can make money.
But the track direction has already emerged. From 241,000 transactions to 80 million, this is not a prediction, it’s something that has already happened.A trader's lament over a 10x leveraged $DOOD short and a $2,500 loss captures something more useful than a single bad trade: the mechanics of a crowded short into a market that refuses to cooperate. Negative funding rates, the detail buried in the complaint, are the tell. When shorts outnumber longs heavily enough that they pay to hold positions, the market is leaning one way, and the cost of staying there compounds daily. The $ETH position tells the same story in slower motion. Two short entrieA banking license can't buy a single price surge: What to really watch after Ripple gets final OCC approval
On October 26, 2026, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) gave final approval to Ripple National Trust Bank, allowing it to manage RLUSD reserve assets and serve as collateral custodian. This marks the first time a crypto company has truly obtained federal-level banking entity status, with industry significance outweighing price impact. This article breaks down the four layers of transmission and three points of attenuation from "license" to "token price" in this news, combined with the current BTC oscillation between $80,000 and $87,000 and the market environment where "Uptober" has failed for the second consecutive year. It provides a verifiable observation checklist for the next 1–4 quarters and three scenario simulations to help turn a "positive" into a trackable and falsifiable basis for judgment. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $XRP #Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建
Meta officially launches a $35 billion equity financing round, with all funds directed towards AI computing power, data centers, and other infrastructure. Chip manufacturers like Nvidia and AMD also plan to participate in the subscription. On the surface, this signals continued investment in the AI sector, but the market has two completely different interpretations.
Positive perspective: The AI arms race shows no signs of stopping. Massive capital expenditures will continue to drive demand for HBM and GPUs, sustaining the semiconductor industry's prosperity, boosting overall risk appetite, and indirectly benefiting crypto assets.
However, the risks are more concerning: Choosing equity issuance for financing indicates that AI's cash burn far exceeds its own cash flow capacity. Large-scale equity issuance will cause dilution, and the enormous financing volume will siphon funds from the market. If AI monetization falls short of expectations later, high-tech stocks at elevated levels are prone to concentrated corrections.
My view: Short-term sentiment is bullish, but avoid blindly chasing highs. High AI capital expenditure growth does not equal performance realization; the biggest risk in this cycle is that returns on computing power investments may fall short of expectations.
Contract strategy: The news is positive but should only be used as a sentiment reference; do not heavily chase the upside. Focus on observing the sustainability of the Nasdaq and chip sectors; if rallies weaken, consider light short positions. Only if funds continue flowing into the AI sector should you consider trend-following long positions, with strict stop-losses throughout.📉 Downward: First test 79,377.7, 79,000 will hold before the meeting.
79,220 is short by 158, 81,070 short by 220, 79,377.7 short by 344, the invalidation line hasn't been touched once.
No one got liquidated: trading volume up 56.37%, liquidations only up 6.29%, open interest 1.17%.
Money is rotating. After showing off 7346% profit, Xuan reduced position to a few thousand dollars, short positions also ready to close.
Veterans are reducing, retail long-short ratio is 69% long (Dr. Bi Kevin's post). Price is stuck.
Perpetual premium -0.0349% discount, but the rate is stuck at 0.01000% benchmark, for two periods.
Discount still at the top, indicating the rate is supported by the benchmark interest rate, not by longs competing.
Today's range is 832 dollars, narrowest in four days, upper bound 80,849.9 is the ceiling.
If 1H close stands above 81,200 or falls below 79,000, consider me wrong, until 10-29 02:00.
Contrary evidence: 10-26 21:00 that 718.5 contracts, previous six bars averaged 130.
It hit 79,455.8 and was bought back, someone is defending the lower bound, not trying to push up.
Before the meeting no one cares about rise or fall, only who pays the rent. Personal review, not advice.
Do you think it will break the lower bound first, or start the meeting directly?
$BTC #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeekBTC near 80,300, ETH near 2,310. Over the weekend, BTC dipped to 79,278 before rebounding but encountered resistance above 80,500.
Spot buying is weak. Stablecoin reserves dropped to $60.6 billion, a one-year low; Coinbase premium turned negative, indicating a lack of incremental funds. Buy orders near 79,000 are mostly futures orders rather than spot support.
Liquidations continue to favor the bulls. In 24 hours, total network liquidations reached 175 million, with long positions accounting for 106 million. BTC long liquidations were 30.04 million, ETH long liquidations 23.31 million, bulls are still bleeding.
ETF divergence. BTC ETF weekly net inflow was 301 million, but a single-day outflow of 169 million; ETH had a single-day outflow of 16.07 million and a seven-day outflow of 198 million, funds still favor BTC.
Macro: Probability of FOMC holding rates steady is 90.6%, with a 67.5% chance of a rate hike in December. Daily RSI is about 40, approaching oversold, but the weekly trend remains bearish.
Key levels:
BTC support at 79,000-79,500 below, resistance at 80,500-81,000 above.
ETH defense at 2,290-2,300 below, pressure at 2,330-2,345 above.
In short: Spot buying is insufficient, bulls continue to take hits, and breakthroughs are unlikely before the FOMC. Do not chase shorts or bottom-fish; wait for BTC to stabilize at 79,000-79,500 or to break above 80,500 with volume before considering light long positions. Position control is paramount. $BTC and gold both dropped 7%! The so-called safe-haven myth was slapped down by the market this time?
The most counterintuitive scene of 2026 has appeared: Bitcoin and gold have surprisingly become among the worst-performing major assets!
According to the current data, $BTC has fallen 7.3% year-to-date, and gold has dropped 7.5%.
One is called digital gold, the other is regarded as a traditional safe-haven asset, yet both got hit together.
This at least sounds a warning bell for the market: don’t treat asset labels as a price guarantee.
Looking further at $BTC’s own capital flow.
On October 22 and 23, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows for two consecutive days, totaling about $773.5 million. The supply from long-term holders decreased by 50,017 coins, while ETF purchases were only about 3,700 coins.
Meanwhile, Strategy holds 848,517 BTC but paused additional purchases after two consecutive weeks of buying.
Putting these signals together, what the market really needs to be wary of is not how much it fell on a certain day, but whether new buying can keep up when selling pressure emerges.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
This week, the FOMC (October 27–28) is about 90% likely to hold rates steady, so the decision itself is basically a known factor.
The real variable is not whether to raise rates, but the wording of the statement and the press conference by Waller: inflation remains high, and the Federal Reserve must convince the market that the “pause in October” does not mean “tightening is over,” while maintaining the credibility of a rate hike window in December.
For risk assets, the decision is already priced in, but the tail risk of communication missteps is not fully priced.
If the market interprets the statement as “December might not move either,” the repricing of rate expectations will first impact U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, then transmit to tech stocks and crypto assets;
Conversely, if the December expectations are successfully maintained, the short term might actually see a “boot dropping” window.
The focus is on Waller’s words, not the rate numbers. The decision is a known factor; communication is the source of volatility. @OKX星球 @OKX 产品精选 $BTC #Can SanDisk's storage business sustain its high growth?
Old Mo straightforwardly says: The volume certainty is very strong, but the price elasticity is locked by long-term contracts.
Supporting the growth is the NBM long-term contract. Eight agreements lock in a guaranteed minimum revenue of $93.9 billion, covering more than half of the shipments through 2027, with an 80% gross margin guaranteed by a floor price. As long as AI inference demand for flash memory doesn't collapse, this base is basically stable.
But the cracks are here too. The long-term contracts lock both volume and price, so if the spot price continues to surge, SanDisk won't benefit from excess profits. Coupled with market concerns about the cycle peaking and sentiment pressure from players like Changxin, the stock price is unlikely to break out of a pure cyclical steep rise in the short term.
Old Mo summarizes: SanDisk is shifting from a "pure cyclical game" to "cash flow pricing." There is a solid safety cushion on the downside, but don't expect another crazy surge in the short term. At this position, patiently waiting for a pullback and stabilization is much safer than chasing highs.
What do you think about SanDisk's long-term contract model? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK海力士Q3财报前瞻简析（配图话题：HBM4能不能提振盈利）
In short: The main profit driver in Q3 is still HBM3E; HBM4's contribution this quarter is limited, serving more as a growth engine for Q4 and next year; Q3 performance flexibility comes from general DRAM/NAND price increases plus fulfillment of existing HBM long-term contracts.
Market poll in the chart shows 83% betting Yes (earnings beat expectations), 18% betting No, reflecting a generally optimistic consensus among investors.
✅ Positive factors (supporting profits, likely to exceed expectations):
1. Traditional storage price increase benefits realized
TrendForce estimates Q3 DRAM contract prices up 13%~18% QoQ, NAND up 10%~15% QoQ; AI inference drives stronger eSSD demand, with ordinary server and PC storage prices rising simultaneously, representing confirmed revenue growth in Q3 without waiting for HBM4 volume ramp-up.
2. HBM3E remains a cash cow
HBM long-term contracts lock prices and volumes, with high unit prices and very high gross margins; SK Hynix still leads in HBM market share, and HBM3E continues stable shipments in Q3, forming the profit base.
3. HBM4 yield has met standards but is in early ramp-up
HBM4 began small-batch sample deliveries in Q2, with yields approaching the mature HBM3E level; Exchange wallet $BTC has recently surged by 70,000 coins. Are the spot whales about to dump?
Many people were scared by this chart showing a large inflow of BTC into exchanges recently.
In less than a month, over 70,000 BTC spot coins flowed in, coinciding with BTC fluctuating and declining above 80,000. Could a major correction really be starting?
Today, I saw more detailed data from other bloggers (Chart 2).
The light-colored area represents the cumulative inflow of BTC by retail investors into exchanges over the past 30 days.
The dark blue area shows the data of whale inflows of BTC into exchanges.
It’s clear that retail investors have been continuously depositing coins into exchanges this past month.
However, the amount of whale inflows is shrinking and decreasing.
In other words, this wave of large inflows into exchanges is mostly driven by retail investors, not whales.
Whales have not been transferring BTC from cold wallets to exchanges in bulk, preparing for spot selling.
Therefore, the main selling pressure causing the recent decline likely comes from retail investors transferring spot coins to sell + contract leverage stop-loss orders, not whales selling spot.
As long as this situation continues, it’s unlikely to see a spot crash with no support and a cliff-like plunge.
Thus, this ongoing BTC decline looks more like a new round of chip swapping, with retail investors taking profits and whales remaining restrained and accumulating.
But this only indicates that the risk of whales chain-selling spot coins is currently low, temporarily ruling out the worst-case scenario of a panic spot sell-off.
For the market to rebound, signals of reduced retail selling pressure and whales withdrawing coins to accumulate are still needed.