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$BTC BTC is currently quoted at 79,666.7 USDT, down 1.15% intraday, with a 24-hour low of 79,322.9. The price is pressured below MA20 (80,161.5) and MA30 (80,273.0), with SUPERTREND resistance at 80,722.1. The 1-hour MACD shows a golden cross below the zero line with expanding red bars, RSI6 has rebounded to 29.9, moving out of the extreme oversold zone, indicating a short-term oversold recovery pattern. On the macro front, ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, market risk aversion has intensified, compounded by ongoing concerns about AI trading, putting overall pressure on the crypto market. Traders are generally reducing risk exposure, focusing on whether a December rate hike signal will be released after the meeting; the interest rate path remains the key short-term variable. The funding situation is in a tug-of-war. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $770 million combined on Thursday and Friday last week, contrasting with over $1 billion net inflow earlier in the week, yet the full week still recorded a net inflow of about $301 million. On-chain whales have cumulatively increased holdings by about 85,000 to 89,000 BTC since mid to late September, the fastest accumulation pace since February this year, diverging from ETF outflows. The liquidation heatmap shows strong short liquidations of $787 million at the upper level of $84,240, and long liquidations of about $770 million at the lower level of $76,764. After breaking below the net long cost zone of $81,993, BTC long liquidations in 24 hours reached about $85.9 million, with 64% of net long positions currently at a floating loss, indicating that leverage pressure has not yet been fully released. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Currently, oil price risks are piling up as the FOMC approaches. The market will first trade inflation and may preemptively digest the shock. At present, the market is trading inflation expectations. The oil price has fallen from a nearly six-month high, which does not mean the supply risk has disappeared. The market mainly focuses on the impact of oil prices on inflation and how long interest rates will remain high. If oil prices continue to decline and the Federal Reserve's statements are not more hawkish, the market may switch back to growth and liquidity. $BTC may not necessarily continue to follow inflation concerns. Between oil prices and Bitcoin, there is still the transmission through the dollar and real interest rates. $ETH $ZEC After institutions enter the market, the advantage I can think of for retail investors is surprisingly that we don't have to report quarterly results. We can't compete with their capital or information, but I just buy some Bitcoin and hold it slowly, without needing to explain to anyone why I haven't outperformed recently. Even if companies are willing to buy long-term, they can't cover the odds of my purchase; the money for dollar-cost averaging still needs to be kept intact. That said, my phone keeps pushing notifications about others catching some market moves, and I've turned them off several times already, but they still keep coming.#PalantirQ3Valuation Why YES: US Comm $764M +149%, Gov $809M +90% Q2 — AIP rocket. FY guide $8.15B→ Street looks for $8.2B+ raise. Citi $250 PT, Knox FedRAMP deal just. Valuation problem: $197, P/S 82x, P/E 168x, Fwd P/E 102x, P/S 85x. Even +$8.2B beat = priced. Fair DCF base $163 vs $197 = -14% safety. Software ETF IGV -4.6% Oct 16 dragged PLTR -7% same day. $2.16B = in-line = sell. Call: 60% EPS BEAT but 40% stock BEAT — needs $2.25B+ & US Comm >140% + FY $8.3B to hold $200. Else $184.War again. So someone jumps out again, skillfully shouting those two words: safe haven. Quickly buy gold, quickly buy Bitcoin. And then? Today gold hit a three-week low, Bitcoin fell below eighty thousand. Because war is never a safe haven event, it is an inflation event. When oil prices rise, interest rates can't come down; when interest rates can't come down, your leveraged positions have to pay the installment bill for this war. Even Trump said that high oil prices are a "small price." Yes, a small price. But this small price is not charged to him, it's charged to you. I'm not bearish on war. I'm bearish on the phrase "war is good for crypto": every round, someone uses "safe haven" to trick you into getting on board, and every round, the bill is charged to the same group of people. I'll start with a counterintuitive point: this year, the one that fell harder from the peak is actually gold. Let's first look from the beginning of the year until now. BTC's last closing price last year was 87,639, now 79,685, down 9.1% year-to-date. Gold futures went from 4,341 to 4,015, down 7.5%. Both are roughly submerged to the same depth. But the volume from the peak tells a different story. Gold hit 5,318 on January 29, by then it had already risen over 20% year-to-date, now it has retraced 24.5%. BTC's highest this year was 96,946 on January 14, with a retracement of 17.8%. So the old saying "crypto is volatile, gold is stable" at least needs to be discounted this year. My own understanding is that these two are more like the same kind of asset this year, both trading on liquidity and interest rate cut expectations, and both get sold off when money tightens. BTC bottomed at 58,628 at the end of June and then bounced back, while gold has been slowly deflating all along. Of course, I might be overthinking. If the FOMC at 2 a.m. Thursday signals dovishness, both could rise together, and the "safe haven" label might be revived. The fear and greed index is at 50 now, market sentiment seems neutral on both sides. Ultimately, those who hid in gold this year didn't really escape. This week, I'll be watching two things: what the FOMC says, and whether BTC at 80,000 can hold as a reference level. $BTC #SpotGold breaks below the $4,000 mark $ZEC ZEC's market situation is too real. The giant whale short sellers hold nearly $190 million in short positions, with the long-short ratio suppressed below 0.16, and the average entry cost around 1225. Now the unrealized profit has exceeded 75%. The funniest part is that the price keeps dropping to new lows, yet the funding rate is still positive. Retail investors keep recklessly throwing themselves into the knife, paying interest to the main players' buy orders. All the positions above are just to break even, the main players' profits are as thick as a wall, so what can cause a rebound? #ZEC $ZEC 👇NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is highlighting a critical challenge: AI demand is exploding, but financing the infrastructure behind it is becoming increasingly difficult. Here’s why I’m paying attention. 👀 Oil prices remain elevated amid geopolitical tensions, inflation is creating pressure on the Federal Reserve, and borrowing costs are making massive AI investments more expensive. Meanwhile, Big Tech is committing hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure. The opportunity is enormous, buTransportation has somewhat recovered, but that doesn't mean the risk premium has disappeared—oil prices remain stuck in a "wartime structure." Hard data: Brent was around $114.5–115 per barrel on Monday, down 1%–2% from Friday's nearly six-month high of about $117, while WTI remains around $101. Trump stated that oil output from the Strait of Hormuz has already exceeded pre-war levels, and shipping data also shows Gulf exports are close to pre-war levels, though about 40% are rerouted through pipelines; Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and energy-related targets continued over the weekend. Supply figures are being restored, but the risk premium hasn't been fully removed, so oil prices "can fall a bit" but "are unlikely to return to 80." High oil prices continue to suppress risk appetite, posing a macro headwind for $BTC. Do you believe more in "diplomatic easing pushing oil prices below 100" or "the premium sticking above 110"? #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $CL $BZ Last night I said I would verify two things tonight, and after checking, one is correct and the other is the opposite. $SPCX is correct. The hype is indeed fading: opened at 157.95, marked at 146.9208108, +417.73 (+61.48%). An eightfold short position, reasoning being "the excitement will fade," and it’s fading slowly, but the direction has never been misleading. This position remains untouched. $TSLA is the opposite. The half position that turned positive after the earnings report is now −84.70 (−17.18%) tonight. Opened at 377.29678, marked at 390.72000, forced liquidation at 415.80208. My reasoning still feels right: after the earnings report, there are no new numbers to support it. But the price moved in the opposite direction. Reasoning and price have never been the same thing. There’s nothing to verify tonight on the rating front, so I’ll leave it blank for now; no forcing it. $BTC on the other hand returned to +272.71 (+59.47%), marked at 79,809.16, with the gap widening to 6,071. Crypto hasn’t followed the US stock market here. A few words: with the same judgment, one earns over four hundred, the other loses over eighty; the difference lies in which step the market chooses to take first. For this $TSLA position, where would you draw your line? Let’s discuss in the comments👇 #SpaceX融资400亿美元，马斯克警告AI云断贷 #AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook Q3 BEAT: $109.4B vs $109.0B, EPS $2.02 vs $1.89 — 8/8 beats. Stock ATH $351, $5T mcap. Why YES: iPhone 17 +10-14% YoY, 235M units est. Foldable iPhone Duo 20M units (Munster $8B extra FY27). India +20%, Services $31B+. Guide 9-11% Rev ($111.7-113.8B) — Street at top. Risk: GM 47-48% vs 50.1% Q3 (memory costs + 2.5% FX). iPhone 18 Pro order cuts Oct noted. P/E 39x leaves no room. Call: 55% BEAT — needs iPhone >$62B + Services >$31B to hold $340. Miss GM <47% = $322.Newbies, don't start by asking what to buy First understand wallets and private keys; if you lose them, no one can help you recover Don't click on airdrop links recklessly; nine out of ten want to steal your assets $BTC can be used as a market thermometer, but it can also stay sideways for a long time $ETH depends on the ecosystem and upgrades; don't just look at daily price changes $USDT is fine for transition, but don't put all your money in one place If you can't understand the whitepaper, stay away; be cautious of stories that sound too good Test withdrawals with a small amount first, continue after confirming receipt Dollar-cost averaging is less stressful than chasing highs and lows, provided it's spare money Don't believe in guaranteed high returns; if it were that stable, you wouldn't get a chance Sleep well, don't overtrade, surviving means you have a chance for the next round#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Just saw this, my first reaction was: how did crypto news turn into a political topic again 😂 According to Bloomberg, crypto, venture capital, and prediction market companies associated with Trump and his family are rushing to hire lawyers and lobbyists to prepare for possible congressional investigations. Democratic lawmakers have requested information from World Liberty Financial and 1789 Capital, focusing on government contracts, policy favors, and conflicts of interest. I've been in the crypto space for just a year, and I used to easily interpret "having political resources" as an advantage. After thinking about it, my current judgment is: this is more like a risk warning for the related companies, and cannot be directly taken as a negative for the entire crypto industry. Hiring lawyers is a precaution, not proof that problems have been found. My understanding is that political connections also bring additional scrutiny, and resource advantages may come at a cost. If the Democrats win the midterm elections and push for investigations, the related companies might have to spend more effort responding—this is my speculation. The investigation focuses on contracts, policies, and interest relationships, so it cannot be concluded that there are issues with the technology or products based on this. I still haven't figured out how ordinary users should distinguish between political controversies and actual operational risks. I'd like to ask experienced seniors: in the future, will you prioritize looking at formal investigation documents or the companies' disclosures about contracts and interest relationships, and why?#SanDiskQ1StorageGrowth Last BEAT: FQ4 $8.97B vs $8.48B (+372% YoY), EPS $39.25 vs $34.96. FQ3 $5.95B +251% vs $4.8B guide (+61% EPS beat). Stock +488% YTD but -40% from $2,335 peak. Why YES: Datacenter $2.98B +103% QoQ (645% YoY) = AI storage king. BiCS8 QLC Stargate ramp now. NBM multi-year contracts = 84.6% GM, 70% op margin. NAND +20% QoQ price still. Risk: Consumer $556M -32% QoQ — price kills demand. Growth slowing $23→$39→$45 (278%→68%→15%). Call: 70% BEAT — needs $10.8B+ + GM >84%Falling 21% and rushing to buy the dip? Look up at the 500,000 large sell orders above; the manipulative whales are worried no one will take the bait! Brothers, some think "it's the bottom" after a 21% drop and rush to buy the dip? Let me tell you, if you jump in now, you're just handing your head to the whales! Look at $APR, current price 0.03253, a direct 21.16% plunge in 24 hours. I opened a high-position short at 0.04294, and my floating profit has hit 72.38%. I've already feasted on the meat from this drop until my mouth is dripping with oil. Why do I say the decline is far from over? Let's take a look at the order book: First, there's a "Five Finger Mountain" pressing down from above. Open your eyes wide and look at the sell orders above: 184,000 at 0.03261, 170,000 at 0.03260, and 174,000 at 0.03255! Altogether, over 500,000 tokens of selling pressure, like a wall of sighs blocking the way. What can the bulls use to break through? Charging up is suicide! Second, the long-short ratio is clear. Bulls only hold 27%, bears dominate with 73%. Retail bulls have long been crushed into doubt, and the trend has completely turned bearish. This guillotine-like downward movement means the bottom is bottomless. Don't always think a big drop means a rebound. You should know that in a downtrend channel, any slight rebound is just a setup for a harsher next drop. Hold your short positions firmly. If it breaks below the 0.03 level, a big waterfall drop awaits. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Zcash spot ETF saw a net inflow of $41.1 million this week, marking the strongest week since mid-September. The previous three weeks experienced a net outflow of $143 million, so this inflow partially recovers the losses from before. What’s more notable is the pace. On September 23 alone, $20.52 million flowed back in, accounting for half of the entire week’s inflow. Such a high concentration indicates that the incoming funds were not large in volume but urgent, more like event-driven buying rather than a slow accumulation of a base position. During the same period, Bitcoin ETFs experienced large outflows for two consecutive days. The two are moving in opposite rhythms; on the evening of the 25th, ZEC was quoted at $1,209 on Binance, up 6.4%, clearly outperforming the broader market. However, there isn’t enough evidence to say the trend has reversed. ETF money can flow in one day and out the next; the full cycle was demonstrated just in the past three weeks. Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting will lead to a repricing of risk assets, which will be the real determinant of whether this wave is a rebound or a turning point. Personally, I only look at the continuity of funds, not single-week figures. Trends should be discussed after three consecutive weeks of net inflows; those who change their stance after one week usually get hit from both sides. At this point, it’s better to miss out on some earlier gains than to catch an emotional trade at the peak. Keep positions smaller and add after next week’s meeting results come out.#AmazonQ3AWSOutlook Oct 29 AMC — Est: $202B Rev | $1.96 EPS | AWS 35% Guide: $197-202B Rev (+9-12%), OpInc $22.5-26.5B vs $17.4B YoY — Street at top end. Q2 BEAT: $200.6B Rev, OpInc $27.5B +43%, AWS $42.2B +36.7% fastest in 18Qs, margin 39.4%. Why YES: AWS accelerating 5 Qs: 19%→22%→30%→36.7%→35% est. Backlog $496B. AI + chips run-rate $25B each, capacity short till 2027. 65% beat odds. Risk: Capex $220B, FCF -$7.6B TTM. If capex raised again without AWS >35% = selloff. Call: 65% BEAT$BTC Strategy holds 848,500 BTC, which at today's price translates to a paper profit of $4.058 billion. Bitcoin's current price is around 79,800, with a 24-hour low touching 79,377. The 80,000 round number resistance is right overhead and hasn't been reclaimed all day. Last week, I cut half my position near 80,500, planning to exit if it broke down. But in the past two days, it has been oscillating between 79,500 and 81,000, and after cutting, it hasn't dropped much, which is quite awkward. The treasury's coin hoarding path is now a dilemma. They won't sell below 80,000, and financing channels remain open, but they also can't push the market up. If there is another crash, the first to blow up will be these highly leveraged listed companies hoarding coins. I'm holding the remaining half position with the stop-loss unchanged. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SK Hynix's quarterly report is about to be released, and the market is asking whether HBM4 can push profits even higher. My answer is straightforward: it can. But this quarterly report has no direct relation to the coins in your account; what matters is who ultimately pays the bill behind it. First, let's clarify the nature of this business. HBM stacks multiple layers of memory and runs them closely alongside computing chips on a dedicated path; with the same wafer area, the money earned from this is several times that of ordinary memory. Because of this, it is no longer a cyclical consumer electronics product; it is a listed material—who allows it to sell, where it sells, and how much it sells are determined politically first, then priced by the market. If you don't understand this order, you will misread everything that follows. Let me explain the transmission chain clearly: the more intense the computing power needed for training and inference, the tighter the demand for HBM; tight supply leads to price increases, and ultimately what is pushed up is the cost of the entire data center. What you really need to watch is at what cost level the AI business starts to become unprofitable. Once rent can no longer cover depreciation and equipment costs, the first to be hit won't be the chip companies' stock prices, but those coins priced by stories of "computing power scarcity"—they have no contracts, only white papers. History reflects this clearly. In Q4 2018, the storage cycle peaked, and SK Hynix's operating profit dropped by more than 80% within a year. They did nothing wrong themselves; the cycle was at fault. The companies that fared best in that round were those that locked in capacity early with long-term contracts, not those chasing spot prices and bidding up prices. What differs this time from last is that the demand side has shifted from mobile phones to a computing power arms race, with buyers being a few large companies that can afford to pay, and the cycle#CoinbaseQ3DeribitImpact Oct 29 AMC — Est: -$0.15 EPS | $1.17B Rev -37% YoY Est cut -59% in 30 days. Q2 MISS: -$1.36 vs -$0.44, Rev $1.22B Deribit game-changer: Closed $2.9B deal, now fully integrated. US + global derivs single pool. Institutional vol +22% QoQ, inst revenue +120% Q3 25 beat. This Q Deribit est $220M of $527M trans rev (42%). Plus tokenized stocks $20M/week, USDC balance $15B = $354M income. Call: 45% BEAT — bar is low. If derivs + subs >$700M = beat. Miss again = $140 test.Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes $DOOD rate is relatively high with a price drop accompanied by increased positions. Price -0.61%, open interest +3%; current rate -0.7292% (4-hour cycle; approximately -4.375% daily, -1.609% realized in 24h, about 136 minutes to settlement). The rate is relatively high and positions are still accumulating; pullbacks usually cause greater impact. $IRYS rate is relatively high with limited price change. Price 0%, open interest +0.34%; current rate -0.2166% (4-hour cycle; approximately -1.299% daily, -0.930% realized in 24h, about 136 minutes to settlement). When price is stable, judge crowding by rate and open interest changes. $EWZ rate is relatively high with price increase accompanied by reduced positions. Price +1.81%, open interest -4.22%; current rate +0.0668% (8-hour cycle; approximately +0.200% daily, -0.907% realized in 24h, relatively high in the past 7 days, about 136 minutes to settlement). Rate and price move in the same direction while positions shrink; the quality of this market move should be discounted.Let's start with a reality check: don't rush to see the buyback as a positive for Bitcoin. The SEC 8-K filing shows that Empery Digital has resumed stock buybacks, repurchasing 122,955 shares during the week ending October 23 at an average price of $2.89; the company holds 1,018 $BTC. I think this news is more significant for the company's shareholders than for the crypto market. There are two reasons: the buyback is of stock, not additional Bitcoin purchases, so it doesn't directly support the coin's price; the buyback may improve per-share metrics, but that doesn't mean the holding strategy has already generated stable returns. Mixing these two issues can easily hype emotions ahead of facts. Of course, I might be a bit cautious. If future disclosures show that the buyback can continuously improve shareholder returns while the holding risk is controlled, I will reconsider. Are you bullish or bearish? Is your stance based on the buyback itself or on the BTC they hold? 📉 $BTC Bearish Scenario: Key Time Windows in the Coming Weeks If BTC continues to face pressure below $83K on the weekly chart, it may indicate a failed breakout. Subsequently, watch for a pullback to the $70K–$75K support zone, or even a drop below the September 15 low before a rebound. Key dates to watch: October 29 Federal Reserve rate decision and PCE inflation data—if inflation remains hot, long-term US Treasury yields may rise again, putting pressure on risk assets; November 3 US midterm elections could also increase market volatility. If the stock market continues to weaken in November, BTC could further test lows and gradually form a quarterly bottom around mid-November. 📊 According to timing patterns, most interim highs from July to October occurred around the 21st of each month. Based on this, the current high window might fall between October 21 and November 3. However, the sample size is limited, so this is for reference only. ⚠️ Key invalidation condition: If the weekly chart closes back above $83K on October 26, the current bearish thesis needs to be reassessed. This market scenario is a plan, not a certainty. Managing risk is more important than fixating on a single direction. #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek $DOOD To be honest, seeing a 674% unrealized profit on the screen makes my feelings complicated. I opened a long position with 0.0017 at 20x leverage. Now it's at 0.002274, with an unrealized profit of 674.90%. The actual price increase is 33.76%, a difference of 0.000574. This money is borrowed from the market and can be taken back at any time. The explosive power of small-cap coins is indeed amazing, but I've also seen too many cases where prices surged and then dropped to zero within minutes. There are three things I fear the most: First, adding to the position impulsively. With 674% right in front of me, it's easy to think "just add one more and it'll be 1000%". Chasing longs at 20x leverage is the dumbest move; you often chase the very peak of that wave, especially with small-cap coins—when the pumping funds withdraw, you're the last one holding the bag. Second, liquidity traps. For a coin like DOOD, the buy depth isn't enough, so you might not be able to exit when you want. Third, failing to break through the 0.0025 resistance. It's just 0.000226 short, but that small difference decides whether this wave continues or ends here. So I've made up my mind: take profits on the main position, move the stop to break even, and treat the rest like a lottery ticket. 674% is enough, don't be greedy. If it breaks 0.0025, look to 0.003; if it falls back to 0.0017, exit and do nothing in between. Remember, the huge profits from small-cap coins are given by the market; how much you take away depends on yourself. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The most dangerous part of this ETH decline isn’t how far the price has fallen. It’s that the trend keeps weakening while more traders continue betting on a rebound. Over the past two days, $ETH has dropped from 2,368 to a low near 2,291. The rebounds along the way have failed to reverse the downward trend, and the price is now hovering around 2,312. But is this genuine buying pressure, or just a temporary pause before another move lower? Look at the positioning data: long accounts account for 7#IntelQ3TerafabFoundry Last Q BEAT: $16.1B vs $15.5B, EPS $0.42 vs $0.21, 4/4 beats. Guide $15.8-16.8B Rev, $0.38 EPS — Street now $16.5B / $0.40. *Why YES:* Server CPU demand >> supply — 30% price hikes in 2026 (Oct 5 latest). Agentic AI = 1:1 CPU:GPU vs 1:8 before. McKinsey: inference 60% of AI by 2030. DCAI est $6.46B +56.9%. *Terrafab watch:* Foundry external rev $293M, loss $2.1B (was $2.8B) — improving. 18A +25% above target. *Call: 68% BEAT — Product YES, Foundry still loss.The bulls on $ETH are really hurting this time, suffering internal injuries from the hammering! The majority of the bull army is floating a loss of as much as 81 million U, with the real money lost accounting for a full quarter of their current positions. The average cost is hanging high above 2900, indicating that most of these long positions have been stubbornly held from the peak all the way down. Despite such severe losses, they haven't been forced out yet—either they're holding on with low leverage or they're gritting their teeth and continuously adding margin into a bottomless pit. But no matter which, the deeper the price drops, the bigger the hole that needs to be filled. Once someone runs out of margin, all that awaits is forced liquidation. These stubborn longs on the market are ticking time bombs and potential sell orders; the deeper the price falls, the more blood-stained chips will be passively dumped. On the other hand, the shorts are handling it with ease, firmly positioned near their cost line without any pressure. The bulls have already lost a quarter of their principal. One more push down will trigger a stampede of queued stop-losses. At this point, if you don't short with the trend, are you going to run and become their bag holder? Just short it!【No gold or BTC in 2026, with just two months left, can they still have a final dance?】 As of October 23 this year, within the market, $BTC has dropped 7.3% year-to-date, and gold $XAU has fallen 7.5%, ranking last two among 21 major asset classes. Last year, gold rose 63.7%, but this year it has retraced steadily from the high at the beginning of the year, breaking below $4,000 on October 23; BTC has also retreated about 35% from last year's peak of $126,000. The safe-haven label does not guarantee price increases. Rising oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, the market worries the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even continue to raise them, increasing the appeal of cash and short-term bonds, putting pressure on both gold and BTC. Meanwhile, the commodity basket rose 52.5% year-to-date, and large-cap U.S. stocks increased 12.3%, indicating that funds have not fully exited the market, but the performance gap between different assets has widened. This does not mean the long-term logic of gold and BTC has failed, but it shows they are not universal short-term insurance. Going forward, attention should be paid to oil prices, interest rate expectations, and whether prices can stop falling. If inflation pressure eases and these two assets strengthen again, this pullback may only be a temporary setback; if high interest rates continue to suppress demand, a year-end rebound will not be so easy.#SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? $ETH at 2,320 is the most presentable illusion in today's entire market ETH current price around 2,320, down only 1% in 24 hours. Looks pretty stable, right? But if you pull out the three pipes below and take a look, none of them are connected. In the past 24 hours, ETH liquidations totaled about $44 million, 74% of which were longs, with the largest single liquidation on Binance, a $6.97 million long position directly taken out. What's more troublesome is that open interest on contracts is still above $30 billion, leverage hasn't been fully cleared. As long as the 2,300–2,400 range continues to be broken down, the next round of long liquidations can be triggered at any time. The price looks decent because the coffin hasn't been nailed shut yet. It doesn't mean the people inside are still alive. The ETF side is even quieter and harsher. Since October, the US spot ETH ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of $1.18 billion; the $832 million net inflow in September was fully given back in one month. BlackRock's ETHA alone contributed $977 million of outflows. Last week, another $221 million fled in a single week; the rebound couldn't even last a day. Institutions aren't just adjusting positions; they're leaving the table. 2,320 is not the bottom; it's just the layer of window paper that hasn't been pierced yet. The presentability is for outsiders to see; whether it leaks or not, the insiders know best. #StrategyQ3BTCGains 📅 Oct 30 AMC — Est: $17.25 EPS | $128M Rev Print: $20.9B digital gain — not cash, mark-to-market. 848k BTC @ $70.8B carrying, cost $64B. Q3 BTC +42% flips tax: +$4.1B benefit, cuts deferred tax to $1.88B. Last 4Qs: 0% beat rate. Q2 miss -$24.4 vs -$2.19 est. Why YES: Polymarket 92% beat $8.67, Est now $17.98. BTC $80k-86k EOD holds gain. #7 profit in S&P — above Meta. Call: 90% BEAT — EPS huge, but stock trades BTC, not EPS. Watch new buy + MNAV.#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ ✅Current Situation Recently, BTC spot ETF funds have been fluctuating back and forth, with inflows one day and outflows the next. The continuity of funds is very poor, with clear disagreements between bullish and bearish institutions. The funds are unstable and have not formed a sustained joint effort to support the coin price. Often, even if the ETF has net inflows, Bitcoin does not necessarily rally, showing a divergence between funds and the market. The core issue is that a single ETF buying force is insufficient to support the price alone. ✅Why are funds fluctuating? 1. Macro is the biggest source of disturbance The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index are swinging back and forth. Once the market reprices to maintain high rates for longer, institutions will choose to redeem ETFs to hedge; once rate cut expectations heat up, funds rush back in, causing repeated switching between subscriptions and redemptions. 2. Fund structure differentiation Some of the funds are arbitrage funds, not long-term allocation funds. They engage in basis arbitrage and quickly enter and exit with slight market fluctuations, amplifying fund volatility. At the same time, short-term profit-taking funds choose to take profits and redeem once there are floating gains, increasing outflow pressure. 3. Selling pressure hedges ETF buying On-chain old whales, high-level trapped positions, and selling pressure from the futures derivatives market often offset the ETF's buying power. While ETFs are buying, existing holders are selling, resulting in continuous bullish and bearish battles. 4. Cautious sentiment The market has not yet reached a full bull market consensus. Institutions dare not go all in and mostly test the waters with small positions on dips. Once the market is under pressure, they withdraw first and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #MicrosoftQ1AzureAndAI 📅 *Oct 28 AMC — Est: $90.6B Rev | $4.71 EPS | Azure 45%* Last Q BEAT: $82.9B vs $81.4B, EPS $4.27 vs $4.05, Azure 40% vs 37% guide. Now guide raised to 44-45% CC, Cloud $40.9-41.2B. *Why YES:* AI run-rate $37B +123% YoY, RPO $678B +99%, Copilot seats 2x. AI contributes >20pts to Azure growth. *Risk:* Capex >$50B this Q, $175B FY26 — market wants ROI. Miss 45% = -5% stock. Options price ±4.5%. *Call: 70% BEAT — Azure is the only number. >45% = $555 retest, <43% = $495【Capital Moves Signal Behind the US Bank Charter Amendment】 On October 24, US Bank (BAC) submitted an 8-K to the SEC (accession 0001193125-26-430566), disclosing four items: Item 3.03 (Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders), Item 5.03 (Amendments to Articles of Incorporation/Bylaws), Item 8.01 (Other Events), and Item 9.01 (Financial Statements and Exhibits). There was no Item 2.02 (Results of Operations and Financial Condition) nor any red-flag Item 4.02 (Non-reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements). The charter-level amendments themselves are neutral, but it is common for major banks to amend charters before issuing bonds, resetting preferred stock, or adjusting dividend policies. The value of this event for ordinary readers is not to "trade it," but to build awareness: the Item numbers in an 8-K are a clear event classifier, and when Items 3.03 and 5.03 appear simultaneously, attention should be focused on subsequent developments. What to watch next: within the next 30-60 days, whether BAC will issue follow-up announcements related to preferred stock redemption, bond issuance, or dividends. Above $80,000, retail investors are accelerating deposits while whales are quietly pulling back — this divergence is more worth watching than the price itself. On-chain data shows that in the past 30 days, retail investors' BTC deposits to Binance doubled from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, hitting a roughly 6-month high; meanwhile, whale deposits dropped from $5.9 billion at the end of August to $3.8 billion, a decline of about 36%. Retail investors are treating the consolidation above 80k as an exit window, but whales have not shown signs of rushing to sell. $BTC is around 80,000. Weekly ETF net inflow is $442 million, ending two weeks of outflows, but ETH and SOL are bleeding during the same period — ETH outflow of $225 million, SOL outflow of $17.3 million. BTC funds have returned, but only in one direction. $ETH is around 2,320–2,340, marking the fourth consecutive week of ETF net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of about $1.18 billion in October. The price is grinding below the moving average, supported by existing holdings rather than new inflows. $SOL is around 101, with a monthly ETF cumulative outflow of about $68 million, and zero net inflow on the 24th. The $100 level is repeatedly tested, but buying pressure is temporarily absent. In short: The FOMC is very likely to hold steady this week, but PCE expectations have risen year-over-year to 3.6%. Retail investors are selling, whales are waiting, and ETF money is only flowing into BTC. For these three coins, they are all waiting for the same thing — whether inflation data will provide a decent reason. For market record only, not investment advice. #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 I now first check if the team behind a project is actually working. $BCH, as a veteran coin, also experiences significant volatility. $ETC follows the overall market; don't expect an independent trend. $FIL in the storage sector depends on real demand. I basically ignore the trade calls shouted in the group. Although researching on my own is slow, it gives me confidence. Divide your position into several parts; don't invest it all at once. Don't curse when losing, don't brag when winning. Take it slow; it's better than anything else. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC holding steady at 80,000, no problem, ETH has already revealed its leverage trump card BTC is now around 80,200, dropped as low as 79,400, then pulled back. Looks pretty stable, right? ETH is now 2,320, bottomed at 2,295, bounced back to 2,335 then softened. One break can recover, the other break can only look up. Don’t comfort yourself with the same market. In the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated 119 million, longs 82.01 million. ETH longs liquidated 22.41 million, BTC only 13.24 million — ETH’s liquidation volume is nearly twice that of BTC. What’s worse is market cap. ETH’s market cap is only about 20% of BTC’s, but per unit market cap takes 4.5 to 5 times the hit compared to BTC. BTC leverage has a cushion, ETH leverage is skin-on-bone. The same cut, BTC bleeds, ETH breaks bones. 2,300 is not support, it’s a wound. How many more mines lie beneath the wound, only the liquidation engine knows. On the FOMC side, the probability of no rate hike in October is already over 90%, but the real blade is on Powell’s lips. Since taking office, he has refused to give guidance in advance. The market isn’t afraid of rate hikes, it’s afraid he changes the topic when he speaks. The ETH longs that haven’t been cleared are waiting not for data, but for Powell’s tone. BTC breaking down is called a scare without danger, ETH breaking down is called structural fragility. Same market, two stretchers. Personal review, not trading advice.I see this more as following the trend of companies stabilizing confidence, but it shouldn't be taken as a signal of $BTC strengthening. Empery Digital repurchased 122,955 shares last week and holds 1,018 BTC; they bought their own stock, not the coin. I follow three rules for trends: look at direction—buybacks are positive for company sentiment; look at sustainability—a single week's action isn't enough; look for confirmation—the market needs to follow through. Trends are the best friend, so I'll observe first. How do you judge trends for companies holding crypto?Last Monday (10/23) I wrote here: I give a 55% probability that this BTC wave will touch 79,000. At that time, the price was still at 81,000. Today (10/26) I checked the market, BTC is fluctuating between 79,800 and 80,700, and on Saturday it even briefly dropped just above 79,100, breaking the 80,000 whole number level—although it bounced back within a few hours. So first, let's reconcile with everyone. The three predictions from the week before last: First, "BTC daily close won't surpass 85,000 before FOMC (10/27–28), probability 65%." No need to wait on this one, it has already been falsified—the price is now 80k, and 85k hasn't even been touched. Correct. Second, "Touch 79k once before the 10/30 options expiration, probability 55%." It hasn't truly hit yet, but Saturday's dip was very close. I'm raising the probability a bit to 60%. The reason is straightforward: there are only four days left until 10/30, the price is pressed near the 80k threshold, and the options' 148,585 Max Pain is pinned at 79,000, so market makers hedging will pull the price toward this point. Third, "Probability of breaking below 78,000 before FOMC is less than 30%." This still holds; Saturday's low was 79,100, no break below 78k. I'll keep this one hanging. Back to the market. Today BTC is about 79,500 (various sources 79,800–80,Galaxy Research announces that the Bitcoin bear market has ended, calling the current period a long-term buying opportunity, while Strategy interrupts its four-week consecutive buying streak, and Strive completes the largest single purchase in history with 6,182 coins added. 1. Galaxy Research clearly states that Bitcoin has bottomed out, "the current time is an attractive buying opportunity," and believes the bear market phase is over; however, the price did not immediately respond, with $BTC falling below $80,000, currently around $79,812 (-0.5%), daily range $79,369–$80,952, and 24h $BTC liquidations totaling $39.22 million, of which longs account for $27.68 million (71%). The market is still deleveraging ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting and the US midterm elections. 2. Corporate treasuries show rare divergence: Strategy halts its consecutive four-week buying rhythm and instead spends $205 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares; Strive completes the largest single purchase ever of 6,182 $BTC (about $511.4 million), raising its total holdings to 43,000 coins, ranking fourth among corporate holders, and plans to continue buying coins by issuing up to $1 billion in SATS preferred shares via ATM; BitMine increases its holdings by 10,452 $ETH to a total of 6.05 million coins. 3. OKX / $OKB: Pump.fun officially launches OKX's X Lay$MON is bearish, with a cliff unlock on November 24 accounting for about 33% of the circulating supply. There are 29 days left until the unlock, so the pressure hasn't arrived yet. We backtested events where the unlock volume exceeded 10% of circulation; underperformance was concentrated in the 7 days before the unlock, averaging about 6% behind the market, with three out of four cases closing negative. The real focus should be the week starting November 17. Currently, the market is very cold, with almost zero trading volume and only $20 million in open interest; the recent liquidation over the past day was just sporadic long positions. No new money is coming in, the lowering highs and bearish moving averages make sense, and the supply event will only make this structure harder to reverse. In the last week, watch for two things: whether open interest suddenly expands, and whether the price starts to lag the broader market. If both occur, underperformance will be realized. Conditions for a bullish reversal: after the 17th, $MON holds above 0.02205 and remains stronger than the market, invalidating the bearish bias. There is no stable direction in backtesting after the unlock day, so no judgment is made here.#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI *$GOOGL / Alphabet Q3 — Cloud + AI Beat?* *Streak: 12 Qs double-digit growth, 4/4 EPS beats avg +86%* Last Q: Cloud $24.8B *+81.8%*, margin 35.6% — fastest ever. Backlog >$510B. Search +17% resilient vs AI chat. *Watch:* Cloud >75% = BEAT, <70% = miss. Capex $195-205B FY26 (Q2 $44.9B), 2027 guide = stock mover. FCF -$5.9B last Q. Options ±6.4% move priced. *Call: 65% BEAT — Cloud drives, but capex fear caps. Target $373 if >70% + backlog up.*$HYPE and $ZEC have always been market barometers in my view. When Bitcoin was at 87,000, HYPE and ZEC were also the first to weaken. HYPE peaked at 98 and then remained weak and consolidated. After ZEC bottomed near 1700, it directly broke below the consolidation range. Later, $BTC also started to top out and then dropped to around 80,000. Currently, HYPE and ZEC are showing signs of a short-term bottom pullback, especially ZEC, which is now seeing capital support. Of course, this is not unique to this market cycle. In several previous cycles, whether it was a rebound in a bear market or a pullback in a bull market, HYPE and ZEC would move ahead of BTC in signaling direction. The major holders of these two coins have basically a 100% accurate judgment of the overall market trend, making them important references for predicting upcoming market movements. #The October FOMC interest rate decision will be announced this week Just saw "Repurchase of $205 million STRC," and my first reaction was: Is Strategy making a big move again? But looking closely, this time it's about repurchasing STRC, not buying BTC. The news comes from Michael Saylor; as of October 25, 2026, the company still holds 848,517 BTC and $5.1 billion in assets. My understanding is that this news is more important for me in terms of how Strategy manages its financing arrangements, rather than just focusing on how much $BTC it holds. Repurchasing STRC at least shows the company is actively adjusting this part of its arrangements; simultaneously disclosing credit risk indicators is also a response to external concerns about its financial stress capacity. I tend to think this has a more direct impact on those concerned with Strategy's credit risk than on ordinary BTC holders. The reason is that its BTC holdings are large, and the market easily links the company's financing actions with coin price sentiment; but a single repurchase itself is not enough to prove the risk has disappeared. The $5.1 billion in assets looks substantial, but what it covers and under what conditions it is sufficient is what I want to understand. To be honest, I haven't fully understood how the credit risk indicators correspond to the assumed BTC annualized yield 🤔. For now, I'll remember this repurchase and will pay more attention to how it explains risk going forward, rather than rushing to conclusions just because of big numbers.Someone tokenized gold just to facilitate trading. STRATO is thinking about something else: mortgage gold bars to mint the stablecoin USDST for use, the gold remains in the vault, and the exposure stays unchanged. The advisor is Joe Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum. The team wrote an Ethereum Haskell client back in 2014 and has raised over 41 million USD in total funding. Borrowed money has a cost; if the gold price falls, the collateral ratio drops, and if it falls below the threshold, liquidation occurs. The difference from directly selling is that selling is turned into pledging.I was too busy at work during the day to look closely, but at night I came across this news about Strive, and my finger stayed on the screen for quite a while. 🌙 What kept me awake wasn’t that someone bought BTC again, but that they increased their holdings by 6,182 coins at once: such a large number right in front of me easily stirs up emotions. I checked the disclosed information: Nasdaq-listed company Strive bought 6,182 BTC between October 17 and 23, at an average price including fees and expenses of about $82,732. As of October 23, its holdings increased from 36,818 to 43,000 BTC. This is a disclosed completed action by the company, not a promise about future price movements. My judgment is that this news carries weight in the discussion about "corporate BTC holdings," but its short-term impact is easily overestimated. On one hand, the continued increase in holdings will make the market pay more attention to listed companies including BTC in their asset allocation; on the other hand, ordinary users seeing large purchases tend to directly associate it with price direction, but one company’s decision cannot answer that question for the entire market. There’s another point I want to keep an eye on: the larger the holding size, the more the market will care about how the company manages this asset afterward, not just how much was bought this time. If there are further disclosures, I will watch whether the actions continue; for tonight, I’ll separate excitement from judgment and not let one piece of news make decisions for me.The colder the $BTC market gets, the clearer it becomes who is competing for the next round's entry. Pump.fun connecting to X Layer, I think this move is very crucial 🤔 With a sluggish market and shrinking trading volume, what will truly be scarce in the next round is distribution and attention. When making early-stage investments, I always look at two things: whether the asset can be seen and whether users can enter with low friction. X Layer is backed by @OKX, and now by integrating a global-level traffic entry like Pump.fun, the ecosystem's discovery and distribution capabilities are further enhanced. After the market recovers, traffic won't be evenly distributed. Whoever lays out the entry points, assets, and user paths in advance will be the one to capture the next wave. $OKB $ETH If large orders are quietly accumulating, but the price remains flat, then what you should really focus on now is not the price increase, but the risk budget. Money has come in, so why is the market still directionless? While reviewing data these days, I had a subtle feeling: BTC's net inflow during the day is about 258, with large orders as the main driving force, yet the price still hovers around 80000; ETH's net inflow is about 4275, the structure is relatively healthy, large orders have also followed, but its independence is weak, still moving in sync with BTC's rhythm; SOL's net inflow is about 45800, showing the most obvious accumulation strength, with large orders continuously increasing, and its elasticity advantage is also the most prominent.✨ Looking at these three together, there is actually a hierarchy in strength: SOL's marginal buying is the most active, ETH is stable but lacks an independent narrative, and BTC is more like an anchor. But the problem is, money arriving does not mean an immediate price rise; during the sideways phase, the market is most prone to back-and-forth sweeps, stop losses are repeatedly triggered, and position management determines survival more than directional judgment.🫧 The more bullish path is: large orders continue to accumulate, SOL leads with volume breakout, ETH follows with a catch-up rally, and after risk appetite warms up, altcoins have room to spread. Conversely, if BTC delays choosing a direction and SOL faces potential selling pressure from unlocking, buying power may gradually be consumed, and the longer the sideways movement lasts, the more likely it is to become a bull trap. What I care more about as a second-level change is the rhythm—currently, money is more patient, so trading is not suitable for chasing volatility, but rather to keep single-trade risk small and leave room for adding positions and correcting mistakes. In short, this round feels more like a test of who gets shaken out first, rather than who rises firstMidterm election curse? Don't panic, the real critical line is at 73K-75K! In the past four midterm elections, Bitcoin hasn't escaped once: a 72% pullback in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022. Moreover, in the Q4 of these four election years, three recorded negative returns. With voting day on November 3rd approaching, it's understandable to feel anxious—the data is right here. But this year the script has changed! The low point this round was on July 1st at 57,850, a full 125 days before election day. By the end of October, the price had already rebounded above 81,000 (an increase of about 40%). The "election bottom" has already been hit early; using the old calendar that says "bottom only after the election" to interpret the new market is completely off the timeline. The real damage of the election curse isn't in the word "election" itself, but in its potential to act as a catalyst for the price to test the "common cost zone": Short-term holders' average cost is about 73,000, and institutions (like Strategy) have an average cost around 75,446. The solid defense line built with real money is clustered in the same range. Currently, $BTC's intraday low is 79,146, having fallen below 80,000. The liquidation heatmap shows a dense liquidation zone between 80,000-80,844, and below 79,000 there are about $3.6 billion in long positions. Where are the gates? First gate: 80,000; second gate: 78,000; ultimate life-or-death gate: 73,000-75,000. The election is just a date on the calendar; cost is the truth on the ledger. It can fall on November 3rd, but 73K-75K must never be lost.
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